The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars kick off their 2020 season as the AFC South rivals take battle in Florida on Sunday.
NFL odds have Jacksonville finishing in, or near, the NFL basement this year while expectations are high in Indy as Philip Rivers takes over the starting QB role for the Colts. Indianapolis is one of three teams in Week 1 to be favored by eight or more points and the total of 45 is the seventh-lowest total on the board.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Colts vs. Jaguars on September 13. **video
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars betting preview
Weather
Jacksonville will be hot and wet on Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-80s and humidity that will make it feel more low-90s. There is a 90 percent chance of thunderstorms about an hour before kickoff and expected to carry throughout the game, with winds up to 11 mph from the East-Southeast. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Colts: Trey Burton TE (Out), Justin Houston DE (Probable), Julian Blackmon S (Out), Matthew Adams LB (Probable)
Jaguars: Tremaine Brock CB (Out), Carl Davis DL (Out), Quincey Williams LB (Out), Taven Bryan DT (Probable), Devine Ozigbo RB (Out), Tyler Davis TE (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Jacksonville finished the 2019 season going 2-6 ATS, as the underdog in each game. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Jaguars.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Looking to take advantage of some lack of familiarity heading into Week 1? Look no further than the Jaguars. With zero tune-up games, Jacksonville will be dealing with a new offensive coordinator and a running game that features an unknown list of runners after the release of Leonard Fournette. Undrafted RB James Robinson is listed as the Week 1 starter for a Jacksonville offense that averaged 3.5 yards per rush at home last year. It’s a big reason that Jacksonville has the highest odds to win the Super Bowl.
The Colts’ strength lies in their offensive line, as the league’s best unit will give new quarterback Rivers, and rookie RB Jonathan Taylor, a better chance to succeed. Indy opened as seven-point favorites but has seen that push down to a flat eight points as of Monday.
Jacksonville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home openers and finished last year under .500 ATS at home. The Colts are the favorites to win the AFC South (+120) and went 1-1 ATS versus the Jaguars last year with Jacoby Brissett under center. Rivers should add some experience and consistency in what should be a great Indy team in 2020.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis -8 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total opened at 46.5 but has since fallen to 45 and could fall even closer to the key number of 44 as Sunday approaches. Indy shouldn’t have a problem owning the line of scrimmage as Jacksonville had the second-worst DVOA rush defense in the league last year. Rivers and the Colts are a match made in short-pass heaven, as Rivers was terrible on deep passes last season with the Chargers while the Colts, under Brissett, had the second-lowest catchable deep ball rate in the league.
The Colts could be eating the clock with their new running game and force Jacksonville's sophomore QB, Gardner Minshew II, to play from behind. Given his lack of experience and new offensive system under OC Jay Gruden, it could prove to be a difficult task that could help keep points off the board.
Another factor playing into this game could be the temperature. With the thermostat hitting the mid-80s and feeling like mid-90s, players' endurance will be pushed early in the season with fatigue possibly playing a major factor in personnel and rotation decisions. We are jumping on the 45 before it hits 44 and hitting the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
First quarter pick
Football players are creatures of habit and with such an unconventional “preseason” there could be some growing pains in the early part of the season. To really exploit this theory, teams with new QBs and offensive systems could be more susceptible to the learning curve. Rivers had spent a few years with Colts head coach Frank Reich in San Diego, but digesting the playbook and the personnel is still a difficult thing to do, even in a normal offseason — the entire playbook may not be available on Sunday, especially over the first couple of offensive series.
On the other side, Minshew will be on his second offensive coordinator in as many years and will not have Fournette, who the offense ran through last year. Minshew had a lower completion percentage (and a higher sack rate) than the ousted Nick Foles in 2019 after taking the starting gig. We are testing the “baby-steps theory” out in Jacksonville on Sunday and hoping both teams come out and try to establish the run and not take many deep shots with new faces on both offenses.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 9 (-110)
Colts vs Jaguars betting card
- Indianapolis -8 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- First quarter Under 9 (-110)
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