The Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in one of the most anticipated games of Week 6, with future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady squaring off for only the third time in their storied careers.
The NFL betting odds for this showdown have gone on an interesting ride since opening, with Brady and the Bucs hitting the board as high as -2.5 before money on Rodgers and the Packers shifted the spread over the fence to Green Bay -2.5.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Packers vs. Buccaneers on October 18.
Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for a 30 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms and temperatures in the high 80s with humidity around 54 percent (feels like 94). Winds are expected to blow NE up to 20 mph at Raymond James Stadium, which will have 25 percent occupancy for fans in attendance Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Packers: Kevin King CB (Out).
Buccaneers: Vita Vea DL (Out), Leonard Fournette RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Buccaneers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Brady-led team getting the points at home (Week 9 2014) but this Packers squad is worthy of this rare line. Green Bay is coming off a bye week and tows a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record into Week 6, owning an average margin of victory of 12.7 points per game on the year.
Rodgers has this offense rolling like never before, ranked third through the air with 295 passing yards per game. That’s created plenty of room for the rushing attack, chewing up almost 151 yards on the ground a contest. That has the Packers (cheese)head and shoulders above every other offense in terms of DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The Bucs defense is dangerous, with 17 sacks and nine takeaways on the year, but it hasn’t faced a QB of this quality yet in 2020. Tampa Bay may have limited Drew Brees in a Week 1 opener that served more as a dress rehearsal, but has since taken on names like Bridgewater, Driskel/Rypien, Herbert and Foles.
Rodgers has 13 touchdown passes with zero interceptions, while completing over 70 percent of his throws behind fantastic protection, getting sacked only three times in four games. Green Bay is converting better than 51 percent of its third-down snaps and dominating time of possession for a league-high 34:20 per outing.
Add into the mix the likely return of top WR Davante Adams, Tampa’s loss of defensive stalwart Vita Vea (broken leg), and a Bucs team that has sent more laundry flying (42 penalties for 410 total yards) than a malfunction at the dry cleaner. Green Bay giving just under a field goal on the road is the right play.
PREDICTION: Green Bay -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Brady and the Bucs didn’t wow in Chicago last Thursday, scoring just 19 points in a loss to the Bears. Some of the blame is on a banged-up Tampa Bay depth chart playing on a short week and some on careless penalties, but the Buccaneers blew a 13-0 lead because they couldn’t protect Brady.
Green Bay hasn’t been consistent with the pass rush in 2020 but has upped the intensity the past two games, with six totals sacks in wins over New Orleans and Atlanta (Za'Darius Smith has awoken). The Packers have had two weeks to tighten the bolts and plan for Tampa Bay, likely picking up some cues from Chicago’s performance in Week 5.
And as much as a firefight between star QBs is being hyped, both teams will try to relieve the pressure and park their counterpart on the sideline with a steady flow of handoffs. The Packers run game catches a huge break with Vea unplugged in the middle of that Tampa defense, and the Buccaneers have Ronald Jones II rolling (217 yards the past two games) and (maybe) Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy behind him.
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Player prop pick
Buccaneers third-string TE Cameron Brate is getting time to shine with O.J. Howard lost for the year and Rob Gronkowski not living up to his New England legacy.
Brate had five catches for 44 yards against the Bears last Thursday and found the end zone on his only grab versus the L.A. Chargers the week before. The long-time Buc out of Harvard has been a favorite of Brady’s during drills and is emerging as an option on third down and in red-zone opportunities.
According to Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians, slot receiver Chris Godwin is expected to be back at full speed later in the week and should be on the field for Sunday. That moves Brate down the prop odds board in terms of TD scorers in Week 6.
The Packers haven’t defended the end zone well when foes creep inside their 20-yard line, allowing touchdowns on over 69 percent of those red-zone stands.
PREDICTION: Cameron Brate touchdown scorer (+400)
Packers vs Buccaneers betting card
- Green Bay -2.5 (-110)
- Under 54 (-110)
- Cameron Brate touchdown scorer (+400)
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