The Tennessee Titans’ COVID-19 outbreak has played musical chairs with the NFL schedule the past two weeks, most recently bumping their Week 5 matchup with the Buffalo Bills to Tuesday night.
As of Monday morning, there are no positive tests coming out of Tennessee, which means we’re a little more confident jumping into an NFL betting preview for this postponed game. The Titans are 3.5-point home underdogs to the undefeated Bills, who enter Week 5 with a 3-0-1 ATS mark so far this year.
Here are our best NFL free picks and predictions Bills vs. Titans on October 13.
Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans betting preview
Weather
Clear skies, light wind, and temperatures in the high 40s are in the forecast for Nashville Tuesday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bills: Zack Moss RB (Out), Tre'Davious White CB (Out), John Brown WR (Out), Matt Milano LB (Out), Levi Wallace CB (Out).
Titans: Corey Davis WR (Out), Adam Humphries WR (Out), Adoree’ Jackson CB (Out), Kristian Fulton CB (Out), MyCole Pruitt TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bills are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Titans.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The last we saw the Titans they were riding the leg of kicker Stephen Gostkowski to a thrilling 31-30 victory over the Minnesota Vikings back on September 27. Tennessee has since been on the shelf with little in-person preparation thanks to an outbreak of COVID-19 among their staff and players, which has left the team without 10 players from its main 53-man roster.
The group hardest hit by the virus – at least in terms of impact on the NFL betting odds – is Tennessee’s receiving corps. Receivers Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are on the COVID reserve list are out for Tuesday night, compounding a knee injury to A.J. Brown, who practiced this week and will play versus the Bills.
Most weeks, this may not be as big as issue for the Titans – not when you have a running back like Derrick Henry. But Buffalo boasts one of the most explosive passing games in the NFL and should Tennessee get behind, even the bruising Henry won’t be able to make up those points quick enough.
Buffalo has struggled defending the pass this season (29th at 280.3 yards per game) but has been solid against the run. The Bills can sell out to stop Henry and the Titans ground game, knowing the receiving corps is plugging in plenty of inexperienced targets with little on-field prep before Tuesday night.
PREDICTION: Buffalo -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
We mentioned the Titans’ woes at receiver and that leaves this playbook very one-dimensional. Tennessee wasn’t exactly torching opponents through the air, but now any explosiveness or cohesion has been sidelined for this Week 5 game.
The Titans defense has also been hit hard by COVID with players missing in every unit, and head coach Mike Vrabel will try to protect those weaknesses by running a methodical pace on offense behind the ground-and-pound of Henry and shorter safe passes from QB Ryan Tannehill. He’s completed only nine passing plays of 20 or more yards through three games.
Buffalo has posted some impressive offensive numbers, especially the air attack from QB Josh Allen. The Bills rank second in average passing yards (316.3 yards per game) and have totaled 21 passing plays of 20 or more yards – fourth-most in the NFL. I am a bit skeptical of those numbers, given Buffalo’s resume includes opponents like the Dolphins, Jets and Raiders.
Tennessee will keep everything in front of it Tuesday night. The Titans have allowed big yardage to opponents this season but are very much a “bend but don’t break” defense — Tennessee is 30th in yards against but giving up just 24.7 points per contest. It’s allowed only nine passing plays of 20-plus yards (lowest in the NFL) and has forced opponents to start drives deep in their own ends (average 23-yard line starting field position – third best).
PREDICTION: Under 53 (-110)
First quarter pick
The Bills have been stingy in the opening 15 minutes of action this season: Buffalo has pitched two shutout first quarters and has allowed a grand total of 10 points in those initial frames heading into Week 5.
Tennessee will have a little rust on the playbook, having not played at game speed since September 27 and having been limited to any practice (league-approved practice…tisk tisk) during the team’s outbreak. Compound that with the lack of preseason prep and the Titans are behind in their offensive growth.
Vrabel knows he can’t afford to fall behind early, not with the way this passing attack is shaping up for Tuesday night. He’ll look to establish the run with an offense opting to handoff on 48.57 percent of snaps – the sixth-most run-heavy playbook in the NFL.
These teams played last October and it took almost the entire first half for someone to crack the scoreboard with Buffalo opening scoring with a TD at the 2:38 mark of the second frame, en route to a 14-7 victory. We’re banking on another uneventful opening quarter Tuesday.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 10 (-110)
Bills vs Titans betting card
- Buffalo -3.5 (-110)
- Under 53 (-110)
- First quarter Under 10 (-110)
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