The Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts were both NFL betting favorites that lost outright in Week 1. They attempt to put those poor debuts behind them when they clash at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.
The Vikings lost 43-34 to the Green Bay Packers as 1-point home chalk last weekend, showing some glaring weakness on defense. But that wasn’t as bad as the Colts falling 27-20 to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 7-point road favorites, spoiling Philip Rivers’ Indy opener.
These are our favorite NFL free picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Colts on September 20.
Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts betting preview
Key Injuries
Vikings: Danielle Hunter, DE (Out)
Colts: Marlon Mack RB (Out), Jack Doyle TE (Out), Rock Ya-Sin CB (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in Vikings’ last seven road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Colts.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The lookahead line set for this Week 2 matchup jumped between Colts -2.5 and -3 during the spring and is a pretty spot on number, considering the true opening spread hit the board at Indianapolis -2.5 Sunday night and moved to -3 with early money on the home side.
The home opener could be a clean slate for Rivers, who performed well in Week 1 (36 for 46 for 363 yards passing) outside of two crucial turnovers that drained any energy from this Indianapolis offense. The Colts outplayed the Jaguars in just about every facet of that game, so there are some positives to build on heading into Sunday.
Minnesota is a good matchup for the father of nine, especially after watching Aaron Rodgers torch the Vikings’ suspect secondary for 364 yards and four touchdown passes in Week 1. Minnesota is relying on some untested talents to defend the pass and those corners got little help from a Vikings pass rush that pressured Rodgers on just seven drop backs all game and failed to record a single sack.
Indianapolis has one of the better offensive lines in the business and they’ll give their new quarterback plenty of time to pick apart Minnesota’s pass defense.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis -3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Colts ran the ball just 22 times last Sunday and have even less incentive to hand it off in Week 2 with RB Marlon Mack done for the year due to an Achilles injury. Indianapolis has an interesting option in rookie RB Jonathan Taylor but until Minnesota proves it can stop the passing game, don’t expect a balanced attack from the Colts.
As for the Vikings, quarterback Kirk Cousins’ stats from the opener don’t reflect this actual play on the field, with those numbers padded against a prevent defense. But there are plenty of weapons at his disposal, including WR Adam Thielen and RB Dalvin Cook, who had an impressive Week 1. Cook rushed for 50 yards on just 12 carries (4.2 yards per attempt) and scored two touchdowns, but saw his touches dwindle when the Packers went up big in the second quarter.
Indy’s pass defense continues to be the sore spot for this team, allowing Gardner Minshew to ball out with pinpoint accuracy in Week 1. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’ Cover 2 scheme is under fire, especially with the last six QBs faced (going back to 2019) having completed 76 percent of their throws and totalled a collective 16 passing TDs.
PREDICTION: Over 48.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Cousins has some hurt feelings to mend with Thielen heading into Week 2. The Vikings QB passed up his top target on a critical fourth-and-three situation last Sunday, throwing an incomplete pass to Tajae Sharpe instead of opting for Thielen, who had one-on-one coverage.
That said, Thielen was far from snubbed in Week 1, targeted eight times for six catches, 110 yards and two touchdowns. Given the way Indianapolis has allowed opposing passing games to light it up, Cousins could quickly get back in the good books with his stud receiver.
We like him to find the end zone again, playing his touchdown prop on the fast track in Indy.
PREDICTION: Adam Thielen touchdown anytime (+120)
Vikings vs Colts betting card
- Indianapolis -3 (-110)
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- Adam Thielen touchdown anytime (+120)
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