The opening week of NFL betting always throws a few surprises at sportsbooks. And the 2020 Week 1 slate was no different, with two sizable underdogs winning their respective openers outright.
The Arizona Cardinals upended the San Francisco 49ers 24-20 as 6.5-point road underdogs and the Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the Indianapolis Colts as touchdown pups at home, winning 27-20.
That puts those four teams involved – Arizona, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Indianapolis – in play with one of the best NFL betting trends for Week 2. Actually, two of the best NFL betting trends for Week 2.
Since 2006, NFL teams coming off a Week 1 loss as favorites of -6 or higher are 7-4-1 against the spread in their Week 2 matchup (64 percent ATS winner). The narrative behind this NFL betting strategy is simple: a good team coming off a bad loss plays with a sense of urgency in the following game trying to make up for that embarrassing defeat.
Week 1 -6 or higher upset losers
| Team (Year) | Spread | Score | Week 2 spread | Week 2 ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars (2007) | -7.5 | 13-10 | -10 | Loss |
| San Diego Chargers (2008) | -9.5 | 26-24 | +1 | Push |
| Indianapolis Colts (2008) | -10 | 29-13 | +1 | Win |
| Cleveland Browns (2011) | -6.5 | 27-17 | -1 | Win |
| New Orleans Saints (2012) | -8 | 40-32 | -3 | Loss |
| Green Bay Packers (2012) | -6 | 30-22 | -5 | Win |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (2013) | -6 | 16-9 | +7 | Loss |
| Chicago Bears (2014) | -7 | 23-20 | +7 | Win |
| Arizona Cardinals (2016) | -9 | 23-21 | -7.5 | Win |
| New England Patriots (2017) | -8 | 42-27 | -5.5 | Win |
| Detroit Lions (2018) | -7 | 48-17 | +6 | Win |
| New Orleans Saints (2018) | -10 | 48-40 | -10 | Loss |
On the flip side of this trend, those Week 1 teams that won outright as underdogs of +6 or higher are 8-2-2 ATS in their Week 2 contest over the past 14 seasons (80 percent ATS winning rate). This one is a little tougher to explain: conventional betting strategy would be wary of a letdown following such an impossible victory. However, those Week 1 stunners more often ride the momentum to the money in the second game of the schedule.
Week 1 +6 or higher upset winners
| Team (Year) | Spread | Score | Week 2 spread | Week 2 ATS result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans (2007) | +7.5 | 13-10 | +7 | Win |
| Carolina Panthers (2008) | +9.5 | 26-24 | -3 | Push |
| Chicago Bears (2008) | +10 | 29-13 | +3 | Push |
| Cincinnati Bengals (2011) | +6.5 | 27-17 | +3.5 | Win |
| Washington (2012) | +8 | 40-32 | -3.5 | Loss |
| San Francisco 49ers (2012) | +6 | 30-22 | -7 | Win |
| Tennessee Titans (2013) | +6 | 16-9 | +7.5 | Win |
| Buffalo Bills (2014) | +7 | 23-20 | -1.5 | Win |
| New England Patriots (2016) | +9 | 23-21 | -5.5 | Win |
| Kansas City Chiefs (2017) | +8 | 42-27 | -4 | Win |
| New York Jets (2018) | +7 | 48-17 | -3 | Loss |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2018) | +10 | 48-40 | +3 | Win |
Looking at the Week 1 losers bouncing back in Week 2, those teams have gone 8-4 SU with an average score of 25.7 to 20 in the second game of the season. The qualifying team was on the road for eight of those dozen games.
As for underdogs coming off a big Week 1 upset, they’re 6-6 SU in the following game with an average score of 23.7 to 21.5. The teams coming off the upset Week 1 wins were at home for four of those 12 Week 2 games.
Looking at the 2020 results, the Colts and 49ers fall into that first trend in Week 2 with Indianapolis set as a 3-point home favorite hosting the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco on the road giving seven points to the New York Jets.
As for the live dogs, the Jaguars and Cardinals try to keep this Week 2 trend profitable on Sunday with Jacksonville getting nine points from the host Tennessee Titans and Arizona pegged as a touchdown chalk versus the visiting Washington Football Team.
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