The San Francisco 49ers left some points on the board last week and lost outright as a 6.5-point favorite to the Arizona Cardinals. Luckily for head coach Kyle Shanahan and the Niners, the New York Jets are on deck for Week 2.
The Jets allowed Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen to set a career-high in passing yards last week and now find themselves as a touchdown underdog against the Niners who are without TE George Kittle in Week 2.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for 49ers at Jets on September 20 (1:00 p.m. ET).
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets betting preview
Weather
MetLife Stadium will be in the mid-60s at kickoff with a 6 mph crosswind. There will be a six percent chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
49ers: Dee Ford DE (Out), George Kittle TE (Out), Deebo Samuel WR (Out), Richard Sherman CB (Out), Jason Verrett CB (Out).
Jets: Jamison Crowder WR (Out), Le'Veon Bell RB (Out), Patrick Onwuasor LB (Out), Denzel Mims WR (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
September has not been a kind month to the J-E-T-S. Over its last seven September games, New York is 1-6 ATS. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Jets.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The San Francisco 49ers may have dropped the first game of the season but there were some positives. They outgained their opponent in yards per play by nearly a yard and left some points on the board after failing to complete two fourth downs inside the Arizona 20. TE George Kittle was held catchless in the second half last week, as the star tight end sprained his knee. He will likely be a game-time decision this week.
Week 1 was not so nice to the Jets either. Sam Darnold and the offense averaged a paltry 4.8 yards per play and the Jets’ QB had the lowest mark in the league in caught air yards (an average of 3.2 yards per completion before YAC) as Darnold showed no skill in the deep ball. Outside of a 69-yard pass, the Jets managed just 185 yards passing and will be without RB Le’Veon Bell, who was placed on the IR.
The Jets gave up the fourth-most yards out of any team last week to the Bills (404) and the team is banged up at inside linebacker. Gang Green will be without one of their inside linebackers and possibly the other as injuries are starting to decimate an already-bad defense. Starting their third- and fourth-string ILBs will be a huge advantage for the 49ers, as the Jets’ back seven could be the worst set of starters heading into Week 2.
San Fran opened at -6 and that line quickly moved as high as -7.5 before falling back down to a soft -7 mid-week. We are hunting for this line at -6.5 but will take it at -7 as the Jets looked to be a disaster on both sides of the ball and the 49ers defense will be hungry to help secure the first win of 2020.
PREDICTION: San Francisco -7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total opened at 43.5 and has since fallen to 42.5. That shift isn’t very significant as movement between key numbers (41 and 44) is common. The possible absence of TE Kittle will likely have the public backing the Under as both teams combined for just 37 points of offense in Week 1.
Last week, the 49ers’ receivers saw just 11 targets, which they turned into four catches for 41 yards. This is not an explosive group and with Deebo Samuel not returning until Week 4 at the earliest, it should not be a group to be counted on when playing the Over. Instead, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan used his running backs more in the passing game, which may be a recipe for winning, but it’s not a great game plan for piling on the points.
Most other teams’ WRs will exploit this Jets’ pass defense, but San Francisco seems uninterested in feeding its mediocre WR group. It won’t be the easiest to run against Gregg Williams’ front-four as the Jets held the Bills’ running backs to 2.27 yards per rush in Week 1.
We like the Under (before the possibility of hitting 41) as Darnold could be in for a long day against the 49ers defense after taking three sacks and an INT against Buffalo last week.
PREDICTION: Under 42.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
As we mentioned above, the San Fran offense put a lot of effort to get its running backs involved in the passing game. Jimmy Garoppolo targeted his running backs nine times in the second half once Kittle was already affected by a first-half knee sprain. In total, the 49ers’ RBs combined for 14 targets which turned into 162 yards and two TDs. The 162 yards were 66 percent of the team's passing yards.
Leading the way for the Niners was Raheem Mostert, who played 66 percent of the offensive snaps and caught 4-of-5 targets for a team-high 96 yards which included a 76-yard TD.
Against a good Jets front four, Shanahan may try to get his RBs involved in the passing game again in Week 2 as New York allowed five yards per reception to Buffalo running backs last week.
PREDICTION: Raheem Mostert Over 9.5 receiving yards (-121)
49ers vs Jets betting card
- San Francisco -7 (-110)
- Under 42.5 (-110)
- Raheem Mostert Over 9.5 receiving yards (-121)
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