NFL bettors got the full range of Josh Allen in Week 1. The Buffalo Bills quarterback threw for a career-high in passing yards, rushed for a bunch more, had three touchdowns, fumbled twice, and missed some wide-open throws in a 27-17 win over the New York Jets as 6.5-point home chalk.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins dropped a 21-11 decision to the New England Patriots as 7.5-point road pups, but the ‘Phins should give the Bills more of a fight than the Jets ever could.
These are our favorite NFL free picks and predictions for Bills vs. Dolphins on September 20.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins betting preview
Weather
The Bills and Dolphins could be in for some messy weather Sunday. The forecast is calling for about a 45 percent chance of rain with potential scattered thunderstorms. The stormy weather will make for a muggy day with temperatures feeling they are in the mid 90s. There will also be a 10-12 mile per hour cross-field wind blowing towards the northeast corner of the stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bills: Tremaine Edmunds LB (Out), Matt Milano LB (Out), Josh Norman CB (Out).
Dolphins: Elandon Roberts LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
You don’t usually think of scoring when it comes to Bills-Dolphins games, but they seem to perform at least slightly better than books think they will when they square off, as the Over is 8-2 in their last 10 meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Dolphins.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
So, the Bills' dismantling of the Jets in Week 1 has given them a boost in bettors’ eyes. The line opened with Buffalo as 4-point road faves, but that has already risen as high as -6 at some shops.
The thinking for many is that the Dolphins just allowed Cam Newton and the Patriots to run all over them last week, for an NFL-best 217 rushing yards, with Newton doing a lot of the damage himself. And Allen profiles a lot like Newton. But Allen has issues with turnovers and accuracy, which are the type of issues that keep underdogs in games.
While the Dolphins are certainly a team in transition, and it looked that way against the Pats, they at least have some direction. Whereas the Jets are a total mess. And while the magic may be gone from Ryan Fitzpatrick, he shouldn’t be as awful as his 191-yard, three-interception performance from last week. Additionally, the Bills could be without two starting linebackers for this matchup, which should help the Dolphins offense get on track.
The public will probably continue to hammer the Bills all week considering each team’s a Week 1 outcome, so I would suggest waiting to see if this number gets to a touchdown or higher. But being at home, in what should be a very muggy and hot environment, in front of approximately 13,000 fans, should give the Dolphins a bit of an edge. Fade the public and take the home dogs to cover.
PREDICTION: Dolphins +6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Bills get the lowest total on the board for the second straight week, with this week’s contest sitting at 41. And it’s not hard to see why.
While the Bills obviously left some points on the board against the Jets, running up the score isn’t usually their mantra. The Bills win with ball control and running the football. Which, of course, tends to lead to the Under.
This isn’t what the Bills did last week, as Allen threw the ball a career-high 46 times. Expect the Bills to try and re-establish the run with Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss, after watching New England chunk off 5.2 yards per carry.
Now, the Dolphins aren’t much better running than the Jets, but they can’t really be worse. And the Jets were able to put up 17 points on the Bills at just 4.8 yards per play. While the Dolphins averaged just 4.6 yards per play against New England, the Pats have a much better defense.
The Bills should be able to do their part when it comes to putting up points here, all we need is Fitzpatrick to be slightly less horrible and this one should sneak Over.
PREDICTION: Over 41 (-110)
Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop Pick
The Bills offense obviously runs through Josh Allen, and running is a big part of the quarterback’s game. Allen averaged 34 rushing yards per game last season, and averaged 39.6 over his last six games of the season (not including Week 17 when he barely played in preparation for the playoffs). He also averaged 44 yards per game against the Dolphins last season and opened this year by rumbling for 57 against the Jets. And to top it off, the ‘Phins of course, let Cam Newton rumble all over them last week for 75 yards. Allen’s rushing total might be a touch low here.
PREDICTION: Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
Bills vs Dolphins betting card
- Dolphins +6 (-110)
- Over 41 (-110)
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