First-half Overs are the best NFL bet of 2020

The Dallas Cowboys are 4-0 Over/Under in first halves to start the 2020 NFL season, with their games going Over the first-half total by an average of almost 11 points per contest.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 8, 2020 • 05:09 ET
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A surge in scoring has made Overs one of the best NFL bets in the first four weeks of the 2020 season, with teams combining for an average of 51.4 points per game. 

That pace, which is almost six points higher than last year’s scoring rate and 4.6 points above 2013’s record average of 46.8 points per game, has manifested itself in a 36-26-1 Over/Under record – a 58 percent winning clip for Overs.

However, there’s one bet more profitable than playing the Over on full-game totals, and that’s betting Over versus the first-half numbers. First-half Overs are 40-21-2 heading into Week 5, cashing in at an incredible 65.6 percent for fans of derivative lines.

NFL teams are combining for 26.3 points in the first 30 minutes of action this season, producing 51 percent of the total points scored in 2020 in opening halves. That first-half scoring rate has been met with an average first-half Over/Under of 23.25 in the opening four weeks of play – blasting Over that number by more than a field goal.

Week Avg 1H O/U Avg 1H Pts 1H Over/Under
Week 1 22.34 23.69 9-6-1 O/U
Week 2 22.69 27.12 10-6 O/U
Week 3 23.59 28.19 14-1-1 O/U
Week 4 24.43 26.33 7-8 O/U

First-half Overs really caught fire in Weeks 2 and 3, going 10-6 O/U and 14-1-1 O/U respectively. Week 2 games produced an average of 27.12 points in the first half against an average 1H total of 22.69 (Over by 4.43 points) while Week 3 saw an average of 28.19 points scored in the opening two quarters versus an average 1H total of 23.59 (Over by 4.6 points). 

Oddsmakers raised the bar in Week 4, setting a record-high average Over/Under number, which meant first-half totals were also getting a historic bump, jumping to an average Over/Under of 24.43 for those derivative totals. The Week 4 games pumped out 26.33 average first-half points, but the scales tipped to 7-8 Over/Under for those 15 games.

The Week 5 totals are once again the highest NFL bettors have ever seen, with an average full-game Over/Under of 50.25 for those games currently on the board (three Over/Under totals are OTB as of Thursday). The Week 5 first-half totals are coming in at an average Over/Under of 24.54. Given that inflation and last week's cooling results, can these derivative O/U bets stay hot for one more week?

Best first-half Over bets

There are five NFL teams with a perfect 4-0 first-half Over mark entering Week 5: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas and the New York Jets. New Orleans is next at 3-0-1 Over/Under in the opening half.

Team Ave 1H O/U Ave 1H Pts (Combined) 1H Over/Under
Baltimore 24.25 32.0 4-0 O/U
Buffalo 22.25 26.25 4-0 O/U
Cleveland 23.75 33.25 4-0 O/U
Dallas 26.5 37.25 4-0 O/U
N.Y. Jets 20.75 25.5 4-0 O/U
New Orleans 24.5 32.5 3-0-1 O/U

Best first-half Under bets

On the flip of this trend, there are just four teams that have turned profits for the first-half Under: Kansas City, Chicago and New England all at 1-3 O/U 1H. Cincinnati is 1-2-1 O/U in the opening 30 minutes.

Team Ave 1H O/U Ave 1H Pts (Combined) 1H Over/Under
Chicago 21.38 19.5 1-3 O/U
Kansas City 25.25 22.5 1-3 O/U
New England 22.38 17.5 1-3 O/U
Cincinnati 22.25 23.25 1-2-1 O/U

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo