The San Francisco 49ers don’t have much time to pick their jaws up off the turf following a stunning 43-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 5, with the Los Angeles Rams coming to town for an NFC West war Sunday.
The NFL betting odds have San Francisco getting 3.5 points from the visiting Rams, who have feasted on fattening NFC East foes for their four wins. Injuries are still plaguing the Niners, who benched hobbled quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo last Sunday.
These are our favorite NFL free picks and predictions for Rams vs. 49ers on October 18.
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s with winds blowing NW up to 7 mph in Santa Clara on Sunday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Rams: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo LB (Out), Micah Kiser (Probable).
49ers: Kwon Alexander LB (Out), Emmanuel Moseley CB (Probable), Richard Sherman CB (Out), Dontae Johnson CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. 49ers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Before the villagers showed up with pitchforks and torches claiming a QB controversy, San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan told the media he yanked Garoppolo from Week 5’s loss to protect his No. 1 passer, who was playing on an injured ankle — and looked like it.
Jimmy G threw two interceptions and connected on just 7 of 17 throws for 77 yards before getting the hook. The Niners were down 30-7 at the half and rather than risk blowing out Garoppolo’s ankle as well as his confidence, Shanahan pretty much conceded the loss and started looking ahead to L.A.
A one-legged QB isn’t the best plan of attack against a pass rush as vaunted as the Rams, but San Francisco can combat that with a deep rushing attack that’s getting healthier heading into Week 6. The ground game still totaled 131 yards on only 19 carries against Miami and could have had more if the 49ers weren’t forced to pass after falling so far behind.
Running back Raheem Mostert returned to the fray this past weekend, picking up 90 yards on 11 carries. He’s supported by dual-threat RB Jerick McKinnon, who didn’t do much in Week 5 but can do damage through the air and on the turf, as well as bruising FB Kyle Juszczyk.
Los Angeles’ defensive numbers are puffed up a bit due to those weak NFC East opponents, but they have been hurt by the run game. New York totaled 136 rushing yards against them in Week 4, Buffalo got them for 101 yards in Week 3, and Dallas rushed for 136 in Week 1. In fact, L.A. sits 28th in rushing defense DVOA at Football Outsiders, taking into account the strength of those opponents.
San Francisco will reap the benefits of that run-heavy attack, relieving the pressure on Garoppolo and more importantly giving its dinged-up defense less time to be exposed by chewing up the TOP.
PREDICTION: San Francisco +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
I know scoring has been a little out of hand this season, but I don’t know why this divisional battle has an Over/Under total above 50 points. Currently, books are dealing a number of 50.5 for Rams-Niners.
Sean McVay has relied on the run in the first quarter of the season, handing off on 51.5 percent of snaps – second-most in the NFL. His three-headed monster of Darrell Henderson Jr., Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown makes L.A. the seventh-best ground game, pacing the fifth-highest time of possession in the league (32:16).
As for the 49ers defense, while it allowed 42 points it did make Miami settle for field goals – a lot – in Sunday’s loss. The Dolphins got five FGs from the leg of Jason Sanders after the Fins went 4 for 12 on third downs and scored touchdowns on just two of their six red-zone trips.
The Niners are sixth in red-zone defense, keeping foes out of the end zone on half of their shots inside the 20-yard line, and sit eighth with a defensive third-down percentage of just 34 the past three games.
The 49ers defense continues to look like a MASH unit, with key contributors missing at all levels, but it’s optimistic CB Emmanuel Moseley can return from a concussion and fellow corner Ahkello Witherspoon has time to heal up from a tender hamstring that hurt his effectiveness against the Dolphins.
PREDICTION: Under 50.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
George Kittle loves L.A.
San Francisco's Pro Bowl tight end has had some impressive outings against the Rams, with three touchdowns and 537 total receiving yards in six career games versus the divisional rivals.
In his last contest against Los Angeles, Kittle caught five balls for 79 yards and a touchdown in a 34-31 home win last December. The Rams will be bringing the heat, which means Garoppolo will be looking to get rid of the ball in a hurry. Those short tosses often end up in the hands of Kittle.
Los Angeles has done OK limiting tight ends so far in 2020, giving up a total of 179 yards to the position, but has allowed three touchdowns to TEs entering Week 6. Kittle only has one TD on the season but with the running game going, the play-action sets him up perfectly for at least one strike Sunday.
PREDICTION: George Kittle touchdown scorer (+121)
Rams vs 49ers betting card
- San Francisco +3.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
- George Kittle touchdown scorer (+121)
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