The Houston Texans have had to start the season as NFL betting underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 and then the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. The gauntlet continues in Week 3 as Deshaun Watson and the Texans have to travel to Heinz Field to take on the 2-0 Pittsburgh Steelers, whose defense is amongst the best in football.
NFL odds saw Pittsburgh open as a 5.5-point favorite, but that spread has fallen to a flat -4. Pittsburgh was 5-3 ATS at home last year while Houston has opened 2020 0-2 ATS. The total has also not seen much movement as it sits idle at 45.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Ravens vs Texans on September 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers betting preview
Weather
The temperature at kickoff will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies and light winds blowing up to 10 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Texans: Jonathan Greenard DL (Out), Duke Johnson RB (Out).
Steelers: None to report.
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Steelers are 2-8 O/U in their last 10 games while the Texans have hit five straight Unders following a loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Steelers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Houston offense didn’t look impressive in Week 1 versus the Chiefs defense as most of the team’s yardage was picked up in garbage time. Bill O’Brien’s offense went nearly 45 minutes between scores in Week 1 against a defense that allowed rookie QB Justin Herbert (on zero preparation) to rack up 479 yards in Week 2. Now the Texans have to deal with the Steelers, who have allowed just 4.5 yards per play through two weeks.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has looked unfazed by a 2019 elbow injury. He is averaging 270 passing yards a game and has tossed five TDs. His opponents haven’t been of the highest quality (the Giants and the Broncos), but the Houston defense had the 22nd-ranked DVOA defense last year and has given up almost 400 yards of offense per game through two weeks.
The Steelers will also get a big boost to their offensive line as guard David DeCastro is expected to make his first start of the year this week. DeCastro has finished in the Top 15 at the guard position in six of the last seven years and is the team's best offensive lineman.
PREDICTION: Steelers -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
If you’re playing the Over, then you are expecting the Texans to do their fair share of the scoring. Through the first two weeks, the Steelers defense held Saquon Barkley to six yards on 15 carries and logged three sacks in Week 1, managed seven sacks last week against the Broncos and have picked three balls and forced two fumbles overall. Watson could be under pressure all day as the Houston O-line is ranked dead last in pass protection this year and has given up a league-high eight sacks.
This game looks like more of a Pittsburgh Team Total Over than a full game Over, as hoping the Houston offense can score three or four times is a lot to ask against this Pittsburgh defense. The total has stood firm at 45 since early in the week.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
Player prop pick
After seeing just 23 percent of the snaps in Week 1, in part to an ankle injury, Pittsburgh RB James Conner dominated backfield touches last week, hogging 77 percent of the snaps. Conner only needed 16 totes to get 106 yards, thanks in part to a 59-yard scamper.
With another week past his injury, the Steelers could give Conner an even bigger workload this Sunday. Even if he sees 15-18 carries in Week 3, we like his chances against Houston who is giving up 5.6 yards per carry this year. Conner topped his rushing total of 49.5 yards last week and cashed his anytime TD prop (-118). This week his rushing total sits at 68.5 yards and is a total that the fourth-year back has a great chance of eclipsing.
The addition of DeCastro on the O-line is a big boost to the entire offense, as the guard is one of the most valuable players on this unit.
PREDICTION: James Conner Over 68.5 rush yards (-120) and Over 0.5 anytime TD (+140)
Texans vs Steelers betting card
- Steelers -4 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- James Conner Over 68.5 rush yards (-120)
- James Conner Over 0.5 anytime TD (+140)
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