It’s déjà vu all over again in Belgium.
Max Verstappen had the fastest car in qualifying Saturday in advance of Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix, but the Red Bull driver knew he was getting dinged because of his engine change, and he’ll start in 11th.
That means second-place qualifier Charles LeClerc will take the pole, the same scenario that happened a year ago, ending with Verstappen taking his third straight race at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamp.
The racer in pole position has failed to win the last five races — not since LeClerc’s Ferrari took the checkered flag in Monaco.
Read below for free betting picks and F1 odds for the race on Sunday, July 28.
Belgian Grand Prix 2024 picks
Pre-practice leans
- Verstappen to win - bet prior to qualification
- Hamilton podium finish - bet prior to qualification
- Sainz Top 6 finish - bet prior to qualification
Post-qualifying picks
- Perez podium finish (+200)
- Sainz Top 6 finish (+150)
Belgian Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Player/Team | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Lando Norris |
+105 | +185 |
 Max Verstappen |
+400 | +185 |
| Oscar Piastri |
+285 | +650 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-27.
| Name | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
| Sergio Perez |
+5,000 | +750 |
 Lewis Hamilton |
+1,100 | +850 |
 Charles Leclerc |
+3,500 | +900 |
| George Russell |
+1,100 | +4,000 |
| Carlos Sainz |
+4,500 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-27.
| Name | Pre-qualifying | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Yuki Tsunoda |
+25,000 | +70,000 |
 Nico Hulkenberg |
+25,000 | +70,000 |
 Lance Stroll |
+25,000 | +50,000 |
| Fernando Alonso |
+25,000 | +30,000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo |
+25,000 | +50,000 |
 Alexander Albon |
+25,000 | +40,000 |
| Kevin Magnussen |
+30,000 | +70,000 |
 Valtteri Bottas |
+40,000 | +70,000 |
 Pierre Gasly |
+40,000 | +50,000 |
| Esteban Ocon |
+40,000 | +40,000 |
| Logan Sargeant |
+50,000 | +70,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou |
+50,000 | +70,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-27.
Belgian Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks
Race prediction: Perez podium finish (+200 at bet365)
How good is Verstappen and how much respect do the books give him?
Even from the 11 spot, he’s tied for the best odds to win the race outright with Lando Norris. But even with the fastest car in qualifying, that’s a lot of weaving and traffic variables to work through on race day.
However, stay in the same Red Bull garage and you’ll find Sergio Perez, who surprised with the third-best qualifying time. With teammate Verstappen’s penalty, he will start second on the grid on Sunday.
His run was enough to push Lewis Hamilton and his Mercedes to third at the start line while finishing two tenths of a second better than McLaren teammates Norris (P4) and last week’s winner Oscar Piastri (P5).
Since finding the podium in four of his first five races of 2024, Perez has fallen off a cliff, landing no better than seventh in the last seven races, which include a pair of DNF’s in Monaco and Montreal.
If you heard his post-qualifying interview, you’ll know he’s approaching any talk of winning outright with caution, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t confident he can make his mark at the speedy grid through the Ardennes Forest.
He’s no stranger to success at this track: Perez has stood second on the podium in each of the last two races here.
Best bet: Sainz Top 6 finish (+150 at bet365)
The conditions and books have come together to create better odds from one of our pre-race bets in Belgium.
A soggy track perhaps played a factor, as Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz will start in the seventh position at the Belgian Grand Prix after qualifying in the eighth spot. Suddenly, his Top-6 odds stretched from around -225 to +150 after Saturday’s qualifying.
We’re banking on his consistency here: Sainz has finished at least sixth in all but one start on the 2024 circuit, when a collision knocked him out of Montreal. His résumé includes a race win in Australia, and four third-place finishes sprinkled along his 12 races this season.
Sainz finished third in Belgium in 2022, and was starting P4 on the grid in last season’s race, but we’re left to predict what could have been. Sainz and Piastri made contact in Turn 1, a collision that would force him into retirement by Lap 23.
With dry conditions expected Sunday, Sainz should be in his usual position when racing in Belgium — running with the front of the traffic.
Belgian Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Leclerc | 2 | Sergio Perez |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 4 | Lando Norris |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri | 6 | George Russell |
| 7 | Carlos Sainz | 8 | Fernando Alonso |
| 9 | Esteban Ocon | 10 | Alexander Albon |
| 11 | Max Verstappen | 12 | Pierre Gasly |
| 13 | Daniel Ricciardo | 14 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 15 | Lance Stroll | 16 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 17 | Kevin Magnussen | 18 | Logan Sargeant |
| 19 | Zhou Guanyu | 20 | Yuki Tsunoda |
Belgian Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
After a few close calls in his first two seasons in F1, Oscar Piastri broke through with his first victory at last weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix. Whether due to recency bias or an overall improvement in form, Piastri is closest to the two favorites entering this weekend's Belgian Grand Prix.
Those favorites were Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, but the former is now at +400 due, perhaps, to the grid penalty he'll have imposed for using a new engine.
Verstappen has won the last three Belgian Grands Prix. Another victory would draw him even with Lewis Hamilton for third-most all-time at the longstanding event, trailing just Ayrton Senna (five wins) and Michael Schumacher (six). That familiarity isn't necessarily a bonus — each of his last three losses came at races he won in 2023 — but it doesn't hurt.
And while improved parity has been the name of the game in recent weeks, let's not forget that Verstappen has still won seven races in 2024 while not a single other driver has won more than once. It's why his lead in the F1 standings remains so massive with a logjam behind him in the fight for second.
Norris appears to have the inside track there as his eight podium finishes greatly trump everyone else not named Verstappen this season. He's finished second in three of the last five races as he maintains his pursuit of Verstappen and his second victory of the season (and his career).
Still, while it may be foolish to write Verstappen off, he has lost three consecutive races for the first time since late in 2021 — the first year he won the Constructor's Trophy. He hasn't failed to win in four straight events in any of the three years where he's taken home the Driver's Championship.
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Belgian Grand Prix pre-practice leans
Max Verstappen to win (+400 at DraftKings)
You need to go back to Lewis Hamilton's three-race win streak in December of 2021 to find the last time Verstappen’s gone three in a row without a victory. And yet, despite his recent struggles and act-outs, he's as good a bet as anyone to take the checkered flag.
Another win in Belgium would tie him with Brazil’s Ayrton Senna and England’s Jim Clark as the only drivers who’ve won four straight at the event. That grid penalty isn’t going to help, but Spa-Francorchamps offers plenty of spots to make moves, and the resurfaced track should also be a benefit to gain grip and weave through the traffic.
Verstappen has experience in comebacks here, too. In 2022, he started 14th on the grid and got the win. Last year, he started in sixth and cruised to victory.
He’s still a solid 76 points clear of Lando Norris with 11 races to go in the standings, and while personal and team anxiety is higher, one good showing is all it will take to settle things down.
Lean: Bet prior to qualification.
Lewis Hamilton podium finish (+135 at DraftKings)
After a rough start to the campaign where he could muster nothing better than a sixth-place finish through eight races, Lewis Hamilton has been turning it around.
He took the title two weeks ago at the British GP and touched the podium again with a third-place finish in Hungary. He’s now found the podium in three of the last four races and has been Top 4 or better in each of the last five.
It never hurts to arrive at a track where you’ve had some success, and Hamilton is currently the winningest active driver at Spa-Francorchamps, with wins in 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2020.
It’s been a mixed bag for the Englishman since that last W, with a third place in 2021, a DNF in 2022, and fourth in 2023. But given plus odds in Belgium, taking a sprinkle on the resurgent Hamilton isn’t a bad play.
Lean: Bet prior to qualification.
Carlos Sainz Top-6 finish (-225 at DraftKings)
Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz has had a consistently solid campaign, with a win in Australia the best of his five podium finishes. The Spaniard finished fifth in Hungary, giving him a Top-6 finish or better in 11 of 13 races.
His only real blemish was a 16th-place result at the Canadian Grand Prix, where he struggled in qualifying and could only climb as high as 10th before colliding with Alex Albon and failing to finish.
The only other race Sainz was a non-factor was in Saudi Arabia when appendicitis surgery on the Friday before race day forced him out altogether.
His Ferrari was a DNF a year ago, but he finished third in 2022, and he should be in and around the front of the pack again on Sunday.
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Previous Belgian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 2019 | Charles Leclerc |
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
