2 months of hard work (AKA "MMAcapper is a cockstrain") thread

I first deposited $2500 approx. 3 months ago.  The first month I built up $910 pending to win $1300 on Floyd with parlays, AND built the initial investment back up to its original $2500.  The rest is (mostly :) posted in the forums here.

2 months ago value: $2500  +$910 waiting on Floyd to win $1300. 

Current value not including pending: $10,690

Pending (built up over the previous 2 months) total of $600 to win $800 waiting on Forrest ($50 of this to win $165 waiting on Mayweather also)

$200 freeplay to win $300 (waiting on Forrest and Mayweather)

First of all let me say I hope you continue win, I hope everyone wins, but I definitely wouldn't call the way you bet hard work.

Your betting style is pretty simple; lay large money on large faves to win the limit of $500 or parlay some of the biggest chalk on the board.  I have a feeling the overwhelming majority of the fighters you bet on you have never seen them or their opponents.  Your plays where there are close odds are much smaller and I gotta think were just based off of stuff you have read or someone else's plays.  I don't think you could form an original opinion by watching actual fights if your life depended on it.  You are the type of bettor that depends on other's analysis or just depends or heavy chalk coming through.  I am not saying that's a bad thing, but don't call it hard work.  Instead call it the luxury of laying  6 G's to win $500 and not having the boxing gods spring an upset on you yet.  I am sure if you went back over the course of those two months and looked at your results of bets on fighters who were -250 or lower the results would not be so pretty.  You pretty much put 50% or more of your entire account on the line every weekend (lots of times on one outcome) and from my knowledge of betting this is not the wisest of strategies.

Today you had $9,500 riding on Erdei in parlays and straight wagers for a potential profit of $1,400.  Erdei won a split decision.  Now, I watched the fight and strongly disagree with the judge who had it for Mendoza; I had it 116-112 Erdei, but wow you pretty much had your entire bankroll on a fighter who won 8 rounds to 4 and was one scorecard away from losing.

Now the boxing gods may continue to smile on you and not throw you a major upset.  I hope they do and you continue to bring in the dough, but don't call it hard work; like I said before you couldn't handicap a competitive boxing match on your own analysis if you had a gun to your head.  That is a lock.

Thanks for the breakdown Fullbrights.  I would have to agree with PRETTY much all you said. 



You're a great handicapper.  I wish you'd add some 0's (or at least a bit higher %), you'd have great returns
 
Though usually I do pretty good when I think for myself I've never pretended or claimed to be some great handicapper.  And EVERYONE listens to somebody to some degree.  I don't think you base all your bets solely off your own knowledge of watching boxers.  Surely you respect some other's opinions/ articles / research of previous fights etc... and consider them in your wagering.  That being said.... I DO base most of my large wagers on others opinions.  I'm here to make money...

And actually...My wagers for -250 or better over the last 2 months are better than "pretty".  This weekend was an exception I'll admit, but don't spread lies. Anyone who wants to go back and look at my posts can see for themselves.  Besides just the last couple months   Go back a couple more months and I made more in one bet (Forrest -160 vs Baldomir) than you have the entire year. 
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Most important part...Is that the "hard work" part of the topic was intended as anything but serious...

Not really sure what you mean by adding some 0's or at least a bit higher percentage, you'd have great returns.  Clarify more on that?

Oh, I completely agree that everyone listens to somebody in some degree.  I can honestly say that right now I only consult with one person that really respect as a boxing bettor and just recently have I gotten in contact with him  ElectricApe who was a former poster here is a guy that also gets my boxing betting respect, but I haven't been in contact with him since DLH-Mayweather.  I consult boxing news/article sites of course, but not in an effort to seek out betting opinions from anyone.  My boxing sites include Maxboxing, Fightnews, Boxrec, and Fightwriter.  You are completely right, when you say a boxing bettor has to gather info from others to a certain extent.  I am a high volume value bettor that depends a lot on viewing fights, seeing value in dogs, staying in contact with a couple of gym rat sources, gaging public perception, and basically being raised watching the sport.  I can barely remember betting any fighter priced at -250 or over this year and I think my largest wager has been 3 units ($300).

So you made over $3,500 on Forrest against Baldomir?  Where were you able to get down $5,600 on Forrest?  I went back and looked at that thread and didn't see anything.

Your posted wagers for -250 are better than "pretty"?  Let's see.
Kendall Holt (Loss): -$300
Trejo/Cruz over 9.5 (Win): +$154
Anderson/Jones over 8.5 -130 (Win): +$138
Ortiz over Reyes +140 (Loss): -$200
Brahmer -170 (Win): +$88
Santos over Rivera at -185 (Win): +$200
Peter KO McCline -169 (Loss): -$169
Diaz y Diaz under 11.5 +180 (Win): +$360
Ian Napa -170 (Win): +$100
Castillo-Perez under (Loss): -$125
Byrd-Povetkin under +135 (Win): +$101
Chambers -145 (Won): +$200
Casamoyer -240 (Won): +$100
Cotto (Won): +$32
Mosley KO (Loss): -$30
Oruh-Abell under -200 (Loss): $-500
Guzman -160 (Win): +$200
Trejo +180 (Loss): -$50
Erdei-Mendoza Under +155 (Loss): -$50
Vargas -180 (Loss): -$180
Hill +380 (Loss): -$20
Hill-Arslan Over (Win): +$37

For an overall total of....drum roll please......+$86.

Those are all the bets you have made at -250 or less since you came over to Covers.  You've made 86 bucks, so sorry for "spreading lies."

Thank god YOU went to do that for me.  I'm far too lazy.  But hey...I'm in the positive aren't I? Aren't you going to count my parlays too?  A huge % of those are better than 2:1 and some of them are/were 1:3 or better.  Let's put those in the mix too.  As soon as Floyd wins just these "small" plays alone over the last 3 months will add up to about 70% of your total winnings for the year.  So again...stop spreading lies.

Forrest vs Baldomir...

Mostly at Red Rock Casino, but some at Bill's casino Las Vegas, NV.

The wager was somewhere around $7000 to win $3200.  My fault...The odds were actually around -180 when I finally made it to place the wager.

 I found them at the Palms at -160 at first but by the time I checked 5 casinos looking for better odds...2 hours later FUCK they were at -180 and worse some places. Sorry for the misprint (-160 vs -180)...But the bet was placed and wager won.  

I wouldn't waste my energy here to bullshit. Stop being a dickwad and implying I'm lying every week.

What I meant...

That $3,700 (or therebouts?) is nice as hell for the money you've risked.....Take the % you'd normally risk and add 20% to every bet or 50% to every bet...or whatever you're comfortable with.  If you'd added 0's to all your bets you'd be at 37k for the year is what I'm getting at.

sorry...$7k to win $3700 or some such.  Not $3200.  I placed $1000 at  -170 at Bill's.  $5000 at Red Rock at -180 and another $1000 at -195 at Red Rock

. Bill's originally had Forrest at -140 when the line FIRST opened :( But I was still undecided at the time...

 

Where is this "Bill's" you speak of?

What parlays?  The ones with faves ranging between -500 and -3000.  I stated that these were the results of your wagers on fighters -250 or less to date.  So again, I'm not "spreading lies."   And what if Floyd loses?  Since when is $1750 70% of $3500?

I thought you said that you have been in Thailand?  I hope not for the reasons you always see on the news here in the US.  If Dateline did a "To Catch a Predator" episode in Thailand I think that they could fill up an entire jail.  Sick stuff.

I have never been to Vegas, but I am surprised that the Red Rock was taking that much action ($5,000) at one price for Forrest-Baldo which really wasn't very big of a fight.

It wouldn't be possible to add 0's to all my bets unless I split my wagers between 2-3 books and different lines.  I play a lot of fight outcome props which have very low limits and besides that are only offered at 5dimes for minor fights.  I risk what I am comfortable betting now.  As my bankroll grows so will my units.  I am 24 and married for a year, so money isn't exactly lying around to gamble with.  Big bettors win more money when they win, it's not really rocket science; they are betting much more.  You risked similar amounts to what I do on the -250 or less bets listed above and you see the results, +$86.   I am willing to go out on a limb and say there are few people on the covers boxing board who are able to risk 3K-7K on a weekly basis to win $500 and an even smaller amount that would.

LOL, no doubt. I don't see much of a point in even showing those bets. Whether they win or not nobody is going to follow that crap. As for what you bet, at least you are honest. Nothing wrong with starting smaller and trying to build up. I started with only $800, 6 years ago.

BTW- This is valdosta from bettormma.

I don't view it as wasting my time, it's entertainment more or less.  I think he is hillarious.

I am not going to respond to his posts anymore though, it's really useless.