any value in the over for tarver/muriqi?

my book has the over 9 1/2 at +180. thinking about it since tarver hasn't proven himself lately and hasn't knocked anyone down since rocky. i think he'll just cruise to a decision. 

small play on over for me @ +180. i just think the value is there hopefully europeans are as tough as you say they are and tarver lays another egg like he did against hopkins.

I don't know if it is worth that much, but hey Always you are a heavier player than I.  I hope that you guys know that Elvir has never been past 8 rounds before.

I have a couple of very small plays on Elvir by decision and on the points handicap at astronomical odds and I do agree that the value lies in Tarver not taking him out early, but I am still wary.

glad i could help guys. should've played it for more and i wish i would've pulled the trigger on cotto by ko, but we always say that after a win. after watching (admittedly almost falling asleep) this fight, i will be more than likely going against tarver in his next fight if it is against any top ten fighter in the light hw division. thanks to all who were on it. will look for more value and winners here in the next couple months. even though its not for another 6 weeks, i'm already thinking about the hopkins/wright fight. that will be a tactical war from start to finish and i'm almost ready to eat the -525 over in that one for a nickel (if i had a ranch i'd think about betting it). when we talk value, i believe it means how likely the outcome is going to happen based on the odds.  i'm thinking this should be closer to -1000 or something of that nature or even more. both men have beards of granite, defensive walls, and neither hits hard enough to knock the other one down, let alone out (i know wright has deceptive power but when was the last time he knocked a top opponent out and if hopkins can't knock out or knock down taylor, how in the name of all that is holy is he going to do that to wright, one of the greatest defensive fighters ever?). don't bet it yet though, its already coming down a bit. thats all for now. everyone enjoy the rest of their weekend. 

yes, alwayswin. i was worried. luckily he had a good cut man, the coagulant worked and it wasn't a big problem. i know that happened early in the fight but after watching then next few rounds, i know the over bet was looking very good....i know a head butt, if bad enough, could cause a stoppage but i can't recall bhop ever (or at least recently) being cut by anything (i think you need a sword to cut him and toney). i know a dq can stop the fight too but both men are sportsmen and probably won't pull anything dirty enough to get the dq. bhop can be dirty sometimes but nothing to warrent a dq in this fight. wright is wright. need i say more. the man is a class act in and out of the ring. plus, i think the style of wright alone won't allow for a hard head butt. i do remember wright's face being swollen up after the taylor fight but thats about the only time and there weren't any bad butts in that fight (please correct me if i'm wrong). given all that, i still think the line should be way more than -525. i think the odds makers know that the fight is going over. when was the last time you saw the over that high? i can't recall anything close, at least recently. i think if these guys fight each other 100 times, it goes over at least 95 times so i still think there's some value. if i bet this fight, its the over or nothing.....one more thing. does this make sense? my book has wright at a -135 favorite but for wright to win by decison it is +140 and for bhop by decision it is +120. that doesn't make much sense to me. kind of like there is a small chance that bhop gets stopped by wright. not likely! maybe we should start a new thread. i'm also liking the over in the hatton/castillo fight @ -175 over 10 1/2. i will have to look into that deeper.