The rematch nobody wants to see takes place at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas this weekend when Chad Dawson defends his IBF and IBO light-heavyweight titles against Antonio Tarver.
The pair met last October with Dawson putting on a clinic as he romped to a unanimous points win. Judges' scores of 117-110 (twice) and 118-109 only really tell half the story. Dawson dominated Tarver on the night and the Florida southpaw needed to use every ounce of his considerable experience just to hear the final bell.
With such a conclusive result few can understand why the pair are meeting again so quickly and unsurprisingly 'Bad' Chad has been chalked up as a massive odds-on chance to prevail.
The reason they are meeting is that Tarver has enforced the rematch clause from their first contract and the man they call the 'Magic Man' has at least been talking a good fight ahead of their return. In a recent pre-fight press gathering he told the assembled media: "Dawson's a young lion and he had a high work rate during our first fight. I missed a few times with my power shots but that's what it is, it's a game of inches. But I always learn from my losses."
Indeed Tarver has gone to great lengths to tell anyone who will listen that his record in rematches stands up to scrutiny with any fighter in the sport having beaten the likes of Roy Jones, Glen Johnson and Eric Harding after losing to them first time around.
It's a fair old accomplishment but the 'Magic Man' is going to have to pull more than a rabbit out of a hat to get his hand raised here against a younger, fresher, quicker and slicker opponent.
Dawson, to me, looks the complete package and it's no coincidence that while Bernard Hopkins has been talking up possible fights with Carl Froch at super-middle or even Tomasz Adamek up at cruiser, he is strangely quiet on the subject of proving himself as top dog at light-heavy against the 27-0 (17) Dawson.
At 6ft 3in Dawson is big for the weight and having already beaten the likes of Adamek, Johnson and Tarver it's clear he wants to test himself against the best.
Whether the wily old Hopkins will give him that opportunity remains to be seen but the bottom line is he can't afford to fail here if he is to confirm the view of many that he is one of the best 'pound-for-pound' fighters in the world today.
No matter which way I look at this one I cannot envisage Tarver pulling it out the bag. He has decent pop in that left hand and maybe you cannot totally rule out him catching Dawson with a 'Hail Mary' left hook (especially given the fact that Dawson has been down before). But he is 40 years old now and giving up height and reach advantages in this one. Dawson's win last time was about as comprehensive as it gets so the big question to me here is not will Chad win but how will he win?
In 32 pro fights dating all the way back to 1997 Tarver has never been stopped and come what may here he will want to go out on his shield. I have a sneaking suspicion, however, Dawson is just going to dominate so thoroughly this time that Tarver will either be stopped or his corner will show mercy on him and pull him out sometime after the halfway point.
Chad is not the most devastating puncher in the sport but with a KO percentage ratio above 60 per cent his dig has to be respected. It's 3/1 that the fight ends before the halfway point in round 10 and that looks a bet to me considering Tarver might be about ready to go and Dawson will be looking to make a statement in 'Sin City'.
This could EASILY go to points but my Pick. Under 9.5 rounds. Cheers Guys..
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