Posted:
#1
Currently my bookie has it at Berto -500 and Zaveck +350 and the Draw at +600. U/O set at 11.5
I think this fight is a tougher one to call than most people think. Although Berto seems to have all the advatanges in age, speed, footwork, technically superior, he has always shown that he fades late in the game. He manages to keep his feet on the ground, but he gets more and more sloppy and fights with his hands down. Against a Mayweather or Pacquiao hes a goner. That is a huge champion character issue. If you can't last the full 12 rounds then you are not worth -500. The fight is Missouri, so Berto should get a slight lean on the judges card. I like the over more than anything. Javeck has shown that he can go the distance often and has a strong chin. Additionally he only has a KO rate of 54.5%, so I'd doubt he would hurt Berto all that much.
I see this fight with Berto starting sharply gaining an edge in the first 6-7 rounds. His speed and jumping left hook should catch Zaveck often in the beginning. Berto will then start to fade and Zaveck will race to catch up in the cards for a marginal loss.
In any case I am feeling the over at +120. I might lay the chalk on Berto for the win, but I am still hesitant to lay that much out on Berto.
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