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On ESPN 2 on Thursday, I like Golden Boy prospect and undefeated Irishman Jason Quigley to get another highlight reel KO and stop veteran Glen Tapia who is coming off two KO/TKO losses yet again. Tapia's career is at crossroads and another KO here could be the end for him.
I have value plays on the underdog veteran Jesus Ruiz in the co-main event to go the distance and hopefully upset Randy Caballero. Caballero is a good prospect but he's coming off a long thirteen month layoff, moving up to super bantamweight and his power is yet untested at 122 pounds. Caballero made weight for this Thursday evening bout but he has struggled with weight cutting in the past. Ruiz is a tough out who has fought better competition and also bigger than the undefeated Caballero, so value on him to get the upset or at least force it to go to the cards.
In the big UK bout on Saturday, I like lightweight champion Jorge Linares at these prices to repeat in the re-match with British boxer Anthony Crolla. I thought Linares clearly won their first fight last year despite the closeness of the decision on some of the cards. Linares' skills are a class above Crolla in my opinion and he has great combos with decent power. So I'm predicting a late rounds stoppage this time, although the unders are a partial hedge in case Linares gets caught or cut again and loses that way.
A home country decision for Crolla is a bit of a concern if it goes to the cards, so I hedged with some decision and split decision props in case Crolla gets the benefit of one or more English judges, rightfully or wrongly.
Jason Quigley wins inside the distance (-167) vs Glen Tapia ~$87.19 for ~$52.21
Jason Quigley wins in round 4-6 (+274) ~$15.57 for ~$42.66
Jesus Ruiz (+1100) vs Randy Caballero $30.00 for $330.00
Jesus Ruiz Points Victory Or Technical Decision (+3300) ~$26.99 for ~$890.67
Jesus Ruiz/Randy Caballero fight to go distance (+163) ~$41.52 for ~$67.68
Jorge Linares (-175) vs Anthony Crolla ~$181.65 for ~$103.80
Jorge Linares (-182) vs Anthony Crolla ~$188.91 for ~$103.80
Jorge Linares wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+235) $40.00 for $94.00
Jorge Linares wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+265) ~$25.95 for ~$68.77
Jorge Linares wins in round 10 (+2500) ~$5.19 for ~$129.75
Jorge Linares wins in round 10-12 (+1000) ~$10.38 for ~$103.80
Jorge Linares/Anthony Crolla Under 9½ (+200) $50.00 for $100.00
Jorge Linares/Anthony Crolla Under 10½ (+160) $25.00 for $40.00
Jorge Linares wins by split decision (+850) $10.00 for $85.00
Anthony Crolla wins by split decision (+1000) $30.00 for $300.00
Anthony Crolla wins by any decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00
Jorge Linares/Anthony Crolla Draw (+2000) ~$10.38 for ~$207.60
Jack Arnfield (-127) vs Brian Rose ~$131.83 for ~$103.80
I have value plays on the underdog veteran Jesus Ruiz in the co-main event to go the distance and hopefully upset Randy Caballero. Caballero is a good prospect but he's coming off a long thirteen month layoff, moving up to super bantamweight and his power is yet untested at 122 pounds. Caballero made weight for this Thursday evening bout but he has struggled with weight cutting in the past. Ruiz is a tough out who has fought better competition and also bigger than the undefeated Caballero, so value on him to get the upset or at least force it to go to the cards.
In the big UK bout on Saturday, I like lightweight champion Jorge Linares at these prices to repeat in the re-match with British boxer Anthony Crolla. I thought Linares clearly won their first fight last year despite the closeness of the decision on some of the cards. Linares' skills are a class above Crolla in my opinion and he has great combos with decent power. So I'm predicting a late rounds stoppage this time, although the unders are a partial hedge in case Linares gets caught or cut again and loses that way.
A home country decision for Crolla is a bit of a concern if it goes to the cards, so I hedged with some decision and split decision props in case Crolla gets the benefit of one or more English judges, rightfully or wrongly.
Jason Quigley wins inside the distance (-167) vs Glen Tapia ~$87.19 for ~$52.21
Jason Quigley wins in round 4-6 (+274) ~$15.57 for ~$42.66
Jesus Ruiz (+1100) vs Randy Caballero $30.00 for $330.00
Jesus Ruiz Points Victory Or Technical Decision (+3300) ~$26.99 for ~$890.67
Jesus Ruiz/Randy Caballero fight to go distance (+163) ~$41.52 for ~$67.68
Jorge Linares (-175) vs Anthony Crolla ~$181.65 for ~$103.80
Jorge Linares (-182) vs Anthony Crolla ~$188.91 for ~$103.80
Jorge Linares wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+235) $40.00 for $94.00
Jorge Linares wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+265) ~$25.95 for ~$68.77
Jorge Linares wins in round 10 (+2500) ~$5.19 for ~$129.75
Jorge Linares wins in round 10-12 (+1000) ~$10.38 for ~$103.80
Jorge Linares/Anthony Crolla Under 9½ (+200) $50.00 for $100.00
Jorge Linares/Anthony Crolla Under 10½ (+160) $25.00 for $40.00
Jorge Linares wins by split decision (+850) $10.00 for $85.00
Anthony Crolla wins by split decision (+1000) $30.00 for $300.00
Anthony Crolla wins by any decision (+400) $25.00 for $100.00
Jorge Linares/Anthony Crolla Draw (+2000) ~$10.38 for ~$207.60
Jack Arnfield (-127) vs Brian Rose ~$131.83 for ~$103.80
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