Calderon v Segura 8.28.10

I am on Segura big here.  Younger, stronger, bigger.  Anyone who's been watching Calderon knows he's not what he was three years ago.  He is a masterful boxer with no power at all, but his boxing skills haven't been as sharp as age seems to be catching up to him.  In his prime, Calderon would've boxed circles around Segura and used his aggression against him.  Now, I'm betting against him being able to avoid Segura all night.  I just don't think he's got it in him.  Segura can really crack, and I think he'll be able to catch Calderon, because his motor doesn't stop and I think it'll be way too much for Ivan at this point in his career.  I think the under (or fight to not go distance) is solid too.  Calderon has been susceptible to cuts in the last few years, and has been involved in a few nasty head clashes.  This could be an outcome in this fight, since Segura is wild and will be jumping in at Ivan. 

I loaded up on Segura at +200 yesterday, but that number has dropped quickly.  I just put some more on him at +150 with my local.  I also played under 11.5 at +125. 

I also played a parlay that I love.  Segura (+150) + Mora (+250).  This pays 7.75 to 1.  I think Mora is exactly the kind of guy that gives Shane fits.  Much taller and longer, excellent boxing skills, good jab.  I think Shane is in for a rough night.  Mora should be able to smack him around from distance and frustrate Shane.  I think Shane's age will show in this fight.

Anyone backing Calderon, I'd love to hear a counterpoint.  If you think the old boxer has one more superb performance in him, I guess I can't argue with that (considering his career accomplishments), but I just don't see it against this guy.

I'm with you on this one. I can see Segura hurting Calderon, but for some reason I can't see him KOing Calderon.

I feel like this fight might be like Rocky Juarez- Chris John 1 where the visiting team actually wins but the judges score it a draw to save face.

I disagree with your Mora pick. I do feel however that Mosley is overpriced. Mora has a good boxing IQ but he has average speed and negative power. Malignaggi had negative power as well but at least he had speed. Mora has height but he doesn't use it well. You said he has a good jab, but I heavily disagree. One of Mora's favorite things to do is get under punches and use angles but he won't be able to get under Mosley. Also don't forget about Mosley's left hook to the body. Mora likes to play like he's macho, but I see alot of "bitch" in him.

If you can't get Mosley's respect - WATCH OUT! I think Mosley will be reinvigorated at 154 lbs and a good portion of the beaners(not racist because I'm Mexican) at Staples Center that night will be rooting for Mosley. The value in Mora is not because Mora is good but because Mosley is showing his age.

I like Mosley by close but unanimous dec. I'll probably end up betting the + points prop for Mora when that comes out.

   Thanks.  This was the most confident I've felt about a fight in a long time.  We killed the local with this one.

I have the option of freerolling on the Mora fight now, if I want to.  I don't think I will though, unless Mosley's price drops a lot. 

Dat, you sound like one of those people who doesn't like Mora because he's not Mexican enough (DeLaHoya faced this too early in his career).  Maybe my mind will change as the fight comes closer, but as of now I still strongly believe what I said in my first post.  I think Mora's size and solid boxing skills will pose all sorts of problems for Shane. 

My picking against Mora has nothing to do with his "heritage". Vargas said he was "more Mexican" than De La Hoya even though Vargas' Spanish was spotty and De La Hoya's was/is fluent. My Spanish is pretty spotty itself and family members call me gringo yet I still embrace my Mexican culure(except for "banda" music I can't stand that shit. LOL)

When I say I see alot of "bitch" in Mora its because I don't think he's good enough of a boxer to have stupid "Latin Snake" antics. He does it to pump himself up, play to the crowd, help convince judges, or to get in his opponents' mind (Mora knows damn well he's weaker than any of his elite opponents). I personally think that is a sign of weakness. I much rather prefer the poker face tenacity of a Marco Antonio Barrera - a true mastermind.

Anyways, if I were you I'd have some parlay bets going (about a third of what you stand to make on Mora) that end with Mosley. Nothing too risky though. But if you are sure Mora is gonna win then don't even bother. I feel Mora has a decent chance (I say he wins 3.5 out of 10 fights with Mosley) but I don't think he'll win on Sept 18th. I don't know what percentages of your gambling bankroll you normally bet, but if you feel inclined to bet more on Mora wait till you can bet on him by dec to get even better odds.

I certainly won't be putting any more on Mora than I already have.  My parlay is risking 2 units to win over 15.  What I was saying is I can go the route of putting 7 units on Mosley to win 2, and freeroll for 8+ on Mora.  I probably won't do that now, but if Mosley's line drops any, I may have to. 

That being said, I don't see myself backing away from my Mora pick.  I feel very strongly about it.

I'm surprised at how high Mosley's price is considering how old he looked vs Mayweather (must be name recognition). He started off at -420 at 5dimes and he's already down to -350 Mosley looked old vs Mayorga and Vargas as well, but those guys had Mosley's respect because of their size/weight and power advantage. Mora will have the size advantage, but he doesn't use it well, and his power is nothing compared to Mosley's (Mora's long-range power especially is minimal). I also don't think Mora takes body shots well and coming down to 154 won't help him in that department.

Mosley has a master strategist as a trainer and a good rule is to always work the body against guys with alot of head movement. Unlike Malignaggi, Mora doesn't have the footspeed, jab, or leg stamina to avoid the body shots of a vicious body-attacker like Mosley.

As I stated before I see value in Mora, I just don't think he's going to win.

BTW, "Canelo" Alvarez fights Baldomir on the undercard. I'm willing to bet eveything I have on Alvarez. He's the real deal. The best Mexican prospect BY FAR. He'll probably be like -1000. 20g's to win 2g's. Call me crazy but I just might do it.