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Calzaghe/Jones Pick

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Posted: #1
I am really looking forward to this fight. I would love to tell you I watched tons of tape and have found something that isn't obvious to most people. However, this isn't quite as easy as the Pavlik/Hopkins play.
 
I have noticed a few things watching 24/7 and listening to interviews from the fighters. When Joe C's mother said it will be the "happiest day of her life" when her son stops fighting, I was shocked. I also didn't like the vibe coming from Calzaghe and his camp the whole time. He also made it clear that he chose MSG for the fight. I still feel that he feels he has something to prove. I don't understand it. He is putting way too much pressure on himself. I wonder if he is secure with his legacy. I don't think he is.
 
 On the other hand, Jones Jr seems to be content with his place in boxing and has the "nothing to lose" attitude going on. I feel a last gasp of greatness coming on here. However, he has gone 3-3 in his last 6 including the knockouts to Tarver and Johnson. I'm not sure he ever recovered. He also faded late in the first fight with Tarver. He looked great against Trinidad, but he wasn't pressured all night.
 
That doesn't explain much of my pick - just some thoughts. I see this fight going two ways...
 
1) Calzaghe volume gets to Roy and he is TKO'd late in the fight. I know that Calzaghe is the biggest fraud in the world with the pitty-pat shit and a rep built basically on a wins over an over-rated Lacy, a win over a solid Kessler and the narrow win over Hopkins. He isn't going to one punch RJ, even though lesser fighters with similar power have done it twice already. If Jones's legs shit the bed midway through the fight I can see Joe getting the stop late on work rate alone.
 
2) Jones catches Calzaghe, who has NEVER faced someone with Jones power. That doesn't even look right when I type it, but it is true. I see Roy catching Joe on the way in with his hands down, similar to his flash knockdown vs Hopkins. Calzaghe also might be eating counters all night long.
 
Main reason is that I'm pretty sure that Jones knows he can't keep up a Calzaghe pace for more than 6-7 rounds. He might just go totally crazy and go for broke, looking to stop or get stopped. Hell, he's been KO'd before.. what difference would it make? However, if he KO'd Joe C.. legacy gets that much larger. He has said this already. I'm starting to believe the old man.
 
This isn't going to the cards... UNDER 11.5, +205
 
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Posted: #2
on the over and calzaghe by decision here, but the main play will be calzaghe 6-9 and 10-12.  good luck.
 
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Posted: #3
Good points walktheline,but Calzaghe has no power,and im sure he wont be taking big risks in this fight, and the fact the Jones has a high guard is almost imposible to land a good punch. Tito has heavy hands and did nothing ,Jones was dancing all night long lol.
 
I expect a well trained and motivated Jones in this fight.This will be a very tactical fight, and Calzaghe is talking about a rematch if he loses to Jones.The odds are getting closer now. 
 
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Posted: #4
 Calzaghe couldnt ko Lacy when he had him badly hurt, no way he tko Jones .
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Arturo_2008:

 Calzaghe couldnt ko Lacy when he had him badly hurt, no way he tko Jones .


calzaghe chooses not to have power. he openly admits to being a slapper, but is working hard on changing that for this fight... i really wouldn't be shocked at all to see a tko in the mid-late rounds for calzaghe.
 
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Posted: #6
The Lacy fight should have been stopped by someone - his corner, ref, doctor, etc.
 
The only time we've seen Calzaghe hit clean he got dropped. We've seen Roy out for MINUTES from a Tarver hook and a Johnson right hand.
 
 
off my mind. Jones might have lost a step, but he is still a deadly counterpuncher. He has about 20 highlight knockouts over fighters getting caught coming in with their hands down, or slightly out off balance after a punch.
 
I still have a large amount of boxing funds from the Margarito fight. I won a grand on the Hopkins fight. The more I think about it, I might have to lay 300-500 on Jones ITD, at +700. I just don't see how in the blue hell Calzaghe slaps his way to a win against Jones. If Jones doesn't gas in the mid rounds, he will stop Calzaghe. If he does, he gets stopped.... still iffy.
 
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Posted: #7
I'm loving over 9.5 -320.
 
I'm a huge Calzaghe fan but I don't think there is any way he will knockout Jones Jr.
 
Jones Jr. has great power but the Welschman is very stubborn and can take a beaten. For every solid shot Jones Jr. lands, Calzaghe will come back with five more less solid shots.
 
I'm predicting this to go to cards and unanimous victory for Calzaghe. Possible TKO in last two rounds.
 
Let me know how everyone feels about this wager.
 
 
 
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Posted: #8
UNDER
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

I'm loving over 9.5 -320.
 
I'm a huge Calzaghe fan but I don't think there is any way he will knockout Jones Jr.
 
Jones Jr. has great power but the Welschman is very stubborn and can take a beaten. For every solid shot Jones Jr. lands, Calzaghe will come back with five more less solid shots.
 
I'm predicting this to go to cards and unanimous victory for Calzaghe. Possible TKO in last two rounds.
 
Let me know how everyone feels about this wager.
 
 


i have the over, calz late round tko and by decision in various amounts which add up to too damn much, so have played a hedge with the under also. i really don't see this fight going under, but can't afford to be wrong.
 
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Posted: #10
Calzaghe by a blowout decision....Roy will run out of gas in the later rounds and will just try to make it to the final bell. Calzaghe isnt knocking anybody out but will score nicely with his slaps.
 
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Posted: #11
Final Plays....
 
Jones by KO, TKO, DQ... 400 to win 3,000
 
Calzaghe by KO, TKO, DQ, 140 to win 420
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #12
Calzaghe's work rate will be too much for Roy to overcome. Roy's best chance would be a KO early but can't imagine Joe letting that happen. Calzaghe by easy UD or late TKO.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

Calzaghe's work rate will be too much for Roy to overcome. Roy's best chance would be a KO early but can't imagine Joe letting that happen. Calzaghe by easy UD or late TKO.

Calzagh by easy UD is absurd. Calzaghe's left hand trouble has already pushed the fight back until now. Why would Roy fear that hand now? What will stop him from throwing a short straight right hand over Joe's notoriously low hands? His work rate might get to Roy at some point, getting a bullshit stoppage. Don't really see that being a problem, but it covers my ass for cuts, butts, etc...

It really is sad is that all we now remember Jones for is the brutal knockouts he received from Tarver and Johnson. Nobody remembers that this guy was not only the fastest fighter of the last 20 years (which I can see the doubts about that given the age...) but also the hands-down slickest defensive fighter other than Whitaker. You really might want to look at some RJJ highlights - I almost forgot how great he was/is/might be.

Listen.... sometimes the stars align just right in the gambling world and you can continue to hit large plus money wagers. In boxing we've had several lately. It was Margo's time against Cotto. Hopkins against Pavlik. Now Calzaghe/Jones. This will be Calzaghe's last fight - unless he was to lose. He is fighting in the US for the second time. He almost got blown out early by Hopkins, a legendary slow starter. Every intangible points to an upset here.

Joe wins by awkward volume that scores points - sometimes. He usually has a huge speed advantage. If ANYONE tells me that they think Joe C has an advantage in handspeed of Jones Jr - you are the sucker of the year. Just not true. Not today, last week, last year, never. As soon as Calzaghe gets whacked in an exchange, we might have a war on our hands. The ONLY thing that makes me second guess my wagers is that Jones Jr might want to do just enough to win and get the fight with Hopkins. Calzaghe might be thinking the same thing. That would suck. We'll see.

 Jones seems to have figured out that it doesn't matter if he wins this fight or gets killed via brutal knockout. He's been on both sides of the coin now - we would think no more or less of him. He has one last chance to add to the HOF resume. I know it, he knows it, everyone knows it.

I forgot the point of this jibberish. I can't wait for this fight. I could see a split decesion win for someone being the only other way this could play out. I don't really see Roy getting an easy UD. Calzaghe would take the rounds Jr. takes off to rest. Joe won't be able to flurry bullshit against Jr. all night and win rounds. Too many clean counters from Roy will make sure of that.

As far as gameplans - Calzaghe is a fighter with only one. Pressure, pressure, rinse, repeat. It ain't broke don't fix it. As far as Jones... not sure. I'm thinking he says fuck it and turns up the heat from the opening bell. I'm pretty sure that would fuck with Joe, but who knows. This fight is about 1,000,000 times more interesting than the Pavlik/Hopkins fight. That might have been the easiest fight of the year to breakdown an outcome. This fight still has me going nuts - the sign of a great matchup. I could give a shit less if I lose every nickel if the fight is solid.

I'm going to get more coffee.......

 

 
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Posted: #14
I still can't see the older, slower Jones keeping up with Joe's type of volume punches. The Jones of yesteryear is a whole other story. We'll know later tonight.
 
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Posted: #15
JOES TO FAST JNR WONT LAST HE SHOULD OF STAYED IN THE PAST
 
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Posted: #16
thats my thoughts exactly we will see another calzagaha tonight its his mom b day and hes going in for the kill we will see power and domination tonight in my humble opion  noote he has 32 ko s ?
Quote Originally Posted by capmaster2000:



calzaghe chooses not to have power. he openly admits to being a slapper, but is working hard on changing that for this fight... i really wouldn't be shocked at all to see a tko in the mid-late rounds for calzaghe.
Mr Evil.
 
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Posted: #17
 
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Posted: #18
Best Value UNDER 11.50 +200
 
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Posted: #19
I think this match comes down too who wants it more and pure will and determination.  Calzaghe is younger and more in his prime, but doesn't have great punching power.  Jones is a harder hitter, but doesn't have a sturdy chin.  With that said,  I made a small bet on Jones to win inside the distance.  Basically going for a longshot here.

 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

I'm loving over 9.5 -320.
 
I'm a huge Calzaghe fan but I don't think there is any way he will knockout Jones Jr.
 
Jones Jr. has great power but the Welschman is very stubborn and can take a beaten. For every solid shot Jones Jr. lands, Calzaghe will come back with five more less solid shots.
 
I'm predicting this to go to cards and unanimous victory for Calzaghe. Possible TKO in last two rounds.
 
Let me know how everyone feels about this wager.
 
 

 

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