Posted:
#1
I am really looking forward to this fight. I would love to tell you I watched tons of tape and have found something that isn't obvious to most people. However, this isn't quite as easy as the Pavlik/Hopkins play.
I have noticed a few things watching 24/7 and listening to interviews from the fighters. When Joe C's mother said it will be the "happiest day of her life" when her son stops fighting, I was shocked. I also didn't like the vibe coming from Calzaghe and his camp the whole time. He also made it clear that he chose MSG for the fight. I still feel that he feels he has something to prove. I don't understand it. He is putting way too much pressure on himself. I wonder if he is secure with his legacy. I don't think he is.
On the other hand, Jones Jr seems to be content with his place in boxing and has the "nothing to lose" attitude going on. I feel a last gasp of greatness coming on here. However, he has gone 3-3 in his last 6 including the knockouts to Tarver and Johnson. I'm not sure he ever recovered. He also faded late in the first fight with Tarver. He looked great against Trinidad, but he wasn't pressured all night.
That doesn't explain much of my pick - just some thoughts. I see this fight going two ways...
1) Calzaghe volume gets to Roy and he is TKO'd late in the fight. I know that Calzaghe is the biggest fraud in the world with the pitty-pat shit and a rep built basically on a wins over an over-rated Lacy, a win over a solid Kessler and the narrow win over Hopkins. He isn't going to one punch RJ, even though lesser fighters with similar power have done it twice already. If Jones's legs shit the bed midway through the fight I can see Joe getting the stop late on work rate alone.
2) Jones catches Calzaghe, who has NEVER faced someone with Jones power. That doesn't even look right when I type it, but it is true. I see Roy catching Joe on the way in with his hands down, similar to his flash knockdown vs Hopkins. Calzaghe also might be eating counters all night long.
Main reason is that I'm pretty sure that Jones knows he can't keep up a Calzaghe pace for more than 6-7 rounds. He might just go totally crazy and go for broke, looking to stop or get stopped. Hell, he's been KO'd before.. what difference would it make? However, if he KO'd Joe C.. legacy gets that much larger. He has said this already. I'm starting to believe the old man.
This isn't going to the cards... UNDER 11.5, +205
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