Canelo Alvarez vs. Sergey Kovalev Prediction

Saul Canelo Alvarez is 53-1-2 with 35 KO’s.  He started boxing professionally at 15 and is now  28 years old. His lone loss was to Money Mayweather who totally dominated and confused Canelo.  Canelo is very unique in that he fights differently depending on the opponent but a few key traits are present in every fight:  Iron chin, master counter puncher, very patient, excellent head movement on defense. Canelo is a plodder on offense as he moves very little side to side. He use to have stamina problems late in fights, but lately it has greatly  improved. He has quick hands but not one punch KO power.

Sergey is 34-2-1 with 28 KO’s and has been KO’d twice himself.  He has big power in both hands and likes to play the bully in the ring.  He has a high work rate and uses his power to wear down and take out his opponent. His problem is that he can only fight one way and at one speed.  When he gets hurt, he hasn't been trained to hold and or recover effectively.  He’s now 36 years old and doesn't have a lot of tread on the tires.  His chin is questionable and his “punch resistance” is diminished. When under heavy pressure, he now becomes unglued.  In his last fight against Anthony Yarde he was under heavy pressure in the 8th only to survive and KO Yarde.   

Prediction:

Canelo will be moving up two weight divisions and adding 20 pounds to fight Kovalev.  Sergey will also have a 5 inch height advantage. Kovalev fought just nine weeks ago and had a very difficult fight against Yarde. I believe this is a toss-up fight and a lot closer than the 4 to 1 odds suggest.  You might think that Kovalev is past his prime (true) but he’s a badass.  He will definitely try to control the fight from the outside with his jab as Canelo tries to get inside and go to the body.  Expect a long fight and the winner gets a decision win.  I’m betting big on the fight going the distance at -160.  

I'm taking Canelo to win by KO/TKO (+175).  I was on Kovalev in his last fight against Yarde and he won that by the skin of his teeth and in all honesty if that fight wasn't in Russia another ref might have stopped that fight earlier since Krusher was so gassed and was getting battered.  Kovalev is such a bada** like you say though so he somehow stayed on his feet in that bout and ended up finishing him off.

Canelo is a different animal from Yarde and a much more experienced cat.  Kovalev will have to keep him at bay for 12 rounds with that jab without allowing Canelo to get to the body.  I don't think he can do it. Once Canelo gets inside, it's game over.