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#1
Canelo Alvarez- Julio Caesar Chavez Jr WILL NOT GO DISTANCE
I am making this a substantial play. These 2 guys are on different trajectories on in their respective careers. Canelo is ascending higher and higher into superstardom, while Chavez has been fading.
Any fight fan will tell you that Chavez has not been the same since getting torched by Sergio Martinez in 2012. Since he has been suspended for a year for weed, disputed win vs Vera, nice win vs Vera in rematch, takes a year off, gets torched by Fonfara where he quits on his stool, then fights a couple mnths later where he doesn't make weight and is jeered by his fans for a lackluster fight, then takes another year+ layoff to fight in October 2016 against a fair opponent to an easy decision.
Yes, fighters take layoffs plenty of times and make resurgent comebacks... but my feeling is Chavez knows his career is on borrowed time and wants to make one last splash... and one last monster payday! He has taken some pretty big punishment, and honestly every time I see him get hit I swear it creates a little swelling almost immediately.
He does have some pop in his punches and can be coerced into a brawl...
Which brings me to Canelo.... they guy is 26 years old and is as hungry as ever. Dude is a lion. He creates perfect space and throws fast accurate punches with deadly intentions. Now with Chavez being a little taller, Canelo may eat some leather... and possibly some big leather at that. I see Canelo walking through most of those to impose his fight plan... but it won't be so easy.
All in All, I see Canelo beating Chavez up pretty good... and the fight is stopped within 8 or 9 rounds.
On the flip side, Chavez may be able to land enough hard punches, and quit possibly an accumulation can get a tired Canelo out of there in the later rounds (obviously this is way slim to happen like 3% chance)
Either way I am hammering the FIGHT WILL NOT GO THE DISTANCE PROP
This prop has been jumping around the last couple of days... -160 to +110 to -130 this morning.
I am making this a substantial play. These 2 guys are on different trajectories on in their respective careers. Canelo is ascending higher and higher into superstardom, while Chavez has been fading.
Any fight fan will tell you that Chavez has not been the same since getting torched by Sergio Martinez in 2012. Since he has been suspended for a year for weed, disputed win vs Vera, nice win vs Vera in rematch, takes a year off, gets torched by Fonfara where he quits on his stool, then fights a couple mnths later where he doesn't make weight and is jeered by his fans for a lackluster fight, then takes another year+ layoff to fight in October 2016 against a fair opponent to an easy decision.
Yes, fighters take layoffs plenty of times and make resurgent comebacks... but my feeling is Chavez knows his career is on borrowed time and wants to make one last splash... and one last monster payday! He has taken some pretty big punishment, and honestly every time I see him get hit I swear it creates a little swelling almost immediately.
He does have some pop in his punches and can be coerced into a brawl...
Which brings me to Canelo.... they guy is 26 years old and is as hungry as ever. Dude is a lion. He creates perfect space and throws fast accurate punches with deadly intentions. Now with Chavez being a little taller, Canelo may eat some leather... and possibly some big leather at that. I see Canelo walking through most of those to impose his fight plan... but it won't be so easy.
All in All, I see Canelo beating Chavez up pretty good... and the fight is stopped within 8 or 9 rounds.
On the flip side, Chavez may be able to land enough hard punches, and quit possibly an accumulation can get a tired Canelo out of there in the later rounds (obviously this is way slim to happen like 3% chance)
Either way I am hammering the FIGHT WILL NOT GO THE DISTANCE PROP
This prop has been jumping around the last couple of days... -160 to +110 to -130 this morning.
Any thoughts? I am also looking hard at the Canelo inside the distance prop and the UNDER 9.5 rounds +165
Good Luck!!
Good Luck!!
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