Cotto-Margarito II (Revenge? or Repeat?)

The first half of the fight Cotto unleashed his most offensive bout to date, but fortune turned as he couldn't out Margarito away and then got some severe punishment.
   My initial post about activity since they fought... "Three years later and Margarito took 2 severe beatings from Mosley and Pacqiuao, and has 1 win by decision since. Cotto took a beating from Pacqiuao and had a war with Clottey. Cotto also has had 3 KOs against decent competition with a questionable decision win over Clottey. Cotto the more active, and what impresses me is the late TKO against Yuri in round 9 and in round 12 against Mayorga. Margarito hung in while taking a beating from Manny when I felt the fight should have been stopped because Margarito's eye was so bad and he wasn't doing any damage to show the fight should continue".  I feel it will be more 7-5 rounds for Cotto. I also think there will be maybe 5 tough scoring rounds and this fight will depend on either...
Cotto landing cleaner shots especially to the body, but those body shots often go missed by poor judging. One factor that favors Margarito is the scoring regarding body shots. Although judges or taught to be non-biased, it looks more effective and is clearly noticeable when a taller fighter hit a shorter fighter with a body shot than the other way around. Margarito will likely be the aggressor like usual and close rounds may go towards Margarito.

Unfortunately it's hard to believe that the judges will disregard the first fight and controversy with the hand wraps and Margarito only got a slap on the wrist. I feel that a heavy bias against Margarito (consciously or unconsciously) will be in play regardless of what the judges say because anyone following boxing cringes when hearing about glove interference (as it seriously becomes a lethal weapon and the majority of people always hold it against a person (even subconsciously).
Also, Margarito's eye has been a problem for a while and those injuries only get worse. The odds of Cotto being almost a 2-1 favorite seems about right with all the variables in play. Many questions will be answered after this fight as this is definitely a life-time career defining bout. Although fighters today seem to be able to compete well up to age 35, with Cotto being 31, and Margarito being 33, bottom line is if either fighter is dominated it will be retirement time (whether or not they do is entirely different).
     I always believed Cotto was a true natural light welterweight (also called junior welterweight or super lightweight) and that he was slightly small to be a great welterweight (as he is been shorter than most and shorter reach as well). Also, his body frame seems best at 140lbs where he punished opponents and won by KO in the middle rounds. After moving up he has been scoring very late round TKO's. He has a strong punch but not a one-punch KO power, and he throws accurate clean shots.
   Motivation and Attitude: Cotto is more serious guy, therefore the revenge factor is over-played in boxing, and to Cotto it's just another fight. It's not like team sports and school pride. Margarito took a beating from Manny, and I don't see Cotto being more active, faster or hard-punching to stop him before the final round. Regardless, Cotto had a war with Mosley that could have gone either way prior to Margarito that basically gave you an idea where Cotto stands. Margarito slows sloppy punches, but I give the guy credit for being a warrior (maybe a cheater), but the Manny fight he had every reason to quit and didn't. I see Cotto that has the better boxing skills to win via decision.
   The weigh-in will tell plenty of information about both fighters. The heavier weight does favor Margarito but not as many make it out to be. Both fighters won't have a large disparity in physical stature from the first fight except for Margarito's bad eye.
   A victory doesn't do as much for either fighter as compared to a loss. The Risk-vs-Reward is heavier on risk. If either fighter dominates many people will still have many reasons and the common one will be... if Cotto loses they say he was to small for the weight and a finished fighter physically and mentally and he was already at a disadvantage because of the first fight, so Margarito's stock goes up only a point... if Margarito loses the main thing will be the hand-wrap scandal and that he is nothing without them, also diminishing his entire career and stating without wraps he might have lost many other fights, also his bad eye speculation, and the fact he hasn't fought and been victorious against anyone since and he is a shot fighter.
   That's my take in a long nut-shell. I will say this, this is a fight will so many question marks that will be answered as well as both fighters should be determined (Cotto proving he was cheated previously; Margarito proving he won previously fair). Although the revenge factor is overplayed, I think they both have more to prove they can still compete high-level, thus the risk is high and likely career ending!
    Aside from all the controversy, they are both tough and they both will come to fight. Calling Cotto a quitter is somewhat a cheap-shot as he stayed in a fight like Margarito against Manny and it should have been stopped earlier, and also continued a fight with Clottey after accidental headbutt cause a major cut and most fighters would have took the No Contest.
    
   (Sorry for the cheap-shot Vic, but Mayweather got you first) Recently in mainstream boxing the only quitter was "Vicious" Victor Ortiz who seems vicious only when he's not hurt. Berto wasn't strong enough, but Maidana exposed him and Mayweather closed him! (Ortiz "Oops, I got hit and fell when not looking while asking the ref tomorrow's weather forecast, and I CAN get up but this new canvas is comfortable like a Sealy Posturepedic Memory Foam and great for my back!")

There was an earlier post about Margarito is going to destroy Cotto and make Mexico proud. I'm not racist or consciously prejudiced against any race (ethnicity, country, etc..) but Margarito winning fails in comparison to using plaster and stating he didn't know if it was actually used in his gloves. Unless he has numb hands, I'd possibly believe him. Cheating to win while endanger another person's life is when I begin my prejudice (against ignorance: bad judgement, continued lying, and no remorse). If you are fighting for pride (which I'm not a big fan of pride, because 99% of the time it is a positive spin-word used for stating an accomplishment and praise for a task that is righteous and worthy of ongoing recognition).
   I've always been amazed at statements like people talking about race and stating they have "Irish Pride". So because you were born somewhere, that is an accomplishment? And it's not the same as saying I'm not ashamed or embarrassed for my ethnicity or nationality.
   My apologies if I offended anyone and used this post as a viewpoint on a word used in another post. There is a difference between someone accomplishing a goal and feeling happy and satisfied, and therefore more confident to achieve different goals. Although I have a more negative feeling with the meaning of how people use the word pride for accomplishments, but even more so for being born of a nation (or ethnicity, etc.). I know people cheer for competitors from their respected countries, but do they need to show pride for a country (even though the task and view is for themselves).
   Even if I didn't mind the use of the word, Margarito is not a guy a would choose for my children to admire as a role model. Here is a man who got a slap on the wrist for endangering the life of others while knowingly (maybe less than 1% he didn't know) cheating and denying it, and not confessing to a mistake and showing true remorse. Mainly if he admitted to such a thing, besides his career gone he would face possible criminal charges.
   Not my first pick for Time Magazine's "Man of the Year". Sorry Margarito fans, but he suffered a knockdown when they got caught, and then denying any knowledge of it he suffered a permanent knockout!

Don't your fingers get tired ?

Some people use speech to text software, but I don't... I do it old school using both index fingers with the quickness. Covers pays me by the letter with each post!!! LOL

Cotto wins simple enough he is in better shape ( Tony doesn't have hand wraps, hasn't won a meaningful fight since they last met, took two bad beatings, eye problems, plus the fight is in New York with Cotto having home field advantage) The odds in this fight are just great at -200 or less, just like Mayweather vs. Hatton and Klitschko vs. Haye recently, As long as Cotto boxes well from the outside and doesn't get caught with too many body shot early, he might be able to score a late stopped as the ref will react to the crowd noise and knowing Margarito's eye is bad he might stop the fight. Bottom line Cotto will not lose the most important fight of his life.(Again!) 

Keep up the great work ZOUK. In my opinion, Cotto won't lose in the Garden 

Great post.
GL

LRM704: Very good point regarding the Garden. You have to be there to understand better, but you see the point. When every fan is cheering for you and against Margarito it does have an effect on judges subconsciously regardless of what they might claim, and don't think judges aren't nervous when you have thousands of puerto rican fans that truly hate Margarito because of the hand-wrap scandal that he denies not knowing anything still. Clottey said he couldn't win a decision against Cotto at MSG, and although it was very close he protested a fight that was a toss-up.
 *** IMPORTANT *** When two popular fighters rematch and the first fight was a decision, use great caution betting the fighter who won the first time as trilogies are big money. This fight brings a different element with all the controversy. Cotto has and edge fighting in the MSG and to think the judges won't be biased against Margarito is fooling themselves. They remember and the constant denial leaves him without an option to show any remorse.
  A little fact on influence in sports.... One of the greatest most memorable sports plays the "Immaculate Reception"... for those not aware of the intricacies here is a post "The funniest thing about this is that the “Immaculate Reception” was blatantly illegal (at the time), but the referees were scared of what the Steelers’ fans would do if they reversed the call and so let it stand!"

Its a tough fight to choose, so many things we just dont know..

And as long as Cotto is standing on 2 feet, he will get the decision regardless. Thats how that scumbag Arum operates, then they will have a 3 peat... I dont think this goes 12 rounds, Cotto will eventually succumb to Margs pressure and workrate.. Ive yet to see Tony fatigued in a fight.. Hes a workout warrior.. And at 153, he will absorb Cottos punches even better.. Cant say the same for Cotto as he is a small for JR MIddle.. He fought most of a career at 140, TOny is the bigger stronger man..

True, but many unknowns and biases without 100% accuracy makes it harder than it this was their first meeting. I'm depending on weigh-in condition... wraps, bad eye, heavier weight... many variables. I advise to people in this spot (and they are degenerates that must bet) that many times we don't know enough so taking good odds is better, except that MSG will decide for Cotto. I think Cotto wins but not final until weigh-in. The trilogy I doubt highly due to many circumstances unless you get a 12 round war that is close!

Margarito is still a style nightmare for Cotto. He (Cotto) usually does not defense world class pressure fighters too well. I can see this fight going the same way as the 1st match. Margarito walked through most of Cotto's shots & even if he had illegal hand wraps, his chin was not cheating. Both fighters are older & a little more worn down. I just think there is too much love for Cotto in the Boxing press, as it seems Margarito is given very little chance too win. At 2-1 I ... I see him as being a live dog & will make a small wager on him ,at this price. Nice Write-ups Zouk.

I am the garden B section Tower 1.  Locking in my last min bet on Cotto!!!!

Cotto Inside the distance +317 

i dont have a link but something like 60-70 percent of the fighters that won the first fight win the second. i remember this from ten years ago.

 

Margarito is nothing without PLASTER!!! No more guessing.

As I also stated, people will make excuses about Margarito's eye, etc... I guess you lose confidence when you know by the later rounds your hands won't turn into super gloves (plaster).

That might be true. As rematch and trilogies started gaining major dollars, most decision fights that are close have gone to the initial loser... or, the biggest factor is "does either fighter winning create a mega PPV event?"!!!  Maybe years ago, but the last two decades, I seen money fights take precedence over a close decision.