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#1
This is one of the largest boxing weekends in recent memory. With many refreshingly competitive bouts on tap, this is what I've come up with..
Cotto vs Margarito. I'm not sure I can add anything that hasn't been said. One thing I'm sure of is that I don't expect an outstanding technical fight to break out. How this fight goes 12 rounds, I have no idea.
I've watched the first fight multiple times. The amount of punishment dished out by each fighter was truly amazing. Can both men do that again? I doubt it. I'm also not buying into Cotto coming out with a "counter and move" strategy either. It's simply not his style, nor should it be.
Joe Public expects a brutal war. Call me Joe. I've bet the "fight won't go the distance prop" but the under 10.5 available at +140 is just as good. With Margarito's eye problem looming over this fight, a quick hook could also be possible. "Fight won't go the distance" 10 units.
Brandon Rios is moving to junior welterweight. However, he decided to make that move a bit prematurely, as he failed to make weight for his fight against John Murray. He isn't planning on going the distance, nor is he physically prepared to do so. The under 9.5 is pricey at -225, but it is what it is.
As Danno mentioned, this fight could have some upset potential. The only problem is that Rios fan friendly and has the potential to generate some great fights in the future. I don't see him losing unless he gets caught. I made a small wager on the under 9.5 because Rios needs to get this fight over before it becomes a problem and his weight issues could haunt him if he gets tagged. Under 9.5, -225, 4.5 units.
Lujan vs Jones is an interesting fight. Jones is being forced fed down our throats as an up and coming welterweight contender. My only question is why? He's technically sound and boxes well but lacks power and aggression. Lujan, on the other hand, is a come forward brawler with tons of heart to make up for his lack of technical boxing ability.
I'm curious to see how Jones reacts if he gets into a dogfight. I'm confident Lujan at the very least will take this fight there at some point. If he doesn't, he is going to be soundly defeated via wide decision or an accumulation type of stoppage. This fight is an IBF title eliminator, so I'm not exactly sure if Lujan was "selected" by Jones's camp, as its exactly the type of fight a contender on the rise should avoid. Going out on a limb and taking Lujan +550 as the upset special, 2 units.
Wolak won't lose on the cards against Rodriguez. As Luke said, sometimes you have to follow the money. Rodriguez fought a fantastic fight the first time around, a fight in which I thought he won. That was as good as he possibly could have fought and it wasn't enough and I just don't see him doing it again. I feel Wolak wins this fight very comfortably and given the circumstances he is an absolute steal at -150. Very large wager on Wolak at this price. 7.5 units.
Agbeko vs Mares. Great fight, better line. Very hard to imagine someone getting knocked out or dominated on the cards. My play? Absolutely nothing, although I would pick Mares via 116-112, 115-113 type scores if had I had to make a selection. A trilogy may be in order for these two.
Many people are very high on Moreno and give him the edge against an aging Darchinyan. Not me. Moreno is tall, he's quick, but he has no power. I could see him out boxing Darchinyan for large stretches of the fight but I also have a feeling Darchinyan could take the fight to him the second he feels can't be hurt. Vic -250, 2.5 units.
If you don't have any fresh paint to watch dry, we have a couple of fights in Finland this morning. I don't like Helenius and I feel Chisora will be competitive enough to justify a one unit wager at +500. I'm worried Povetkin could have his hands full with a game 42 year old Cedric Boswell. I can't pull the upset trigger, but I'm doubting he gets stopped. Over 9.5, -185, 1.85 units.
Enjoy your early Christmas gift boxing fans, this should be an outstanding weekend. 
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Those are good picks
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