LAS VEGAS – In analyzing the factors that could determine the outcome of the Manny Pacquiao-Oscar dela Hoya “dream match” here tonight (tomorrow morning, Manila), 10 critical elements come to mind.
• Speed. This translates into quickness of hand and foot. Mobility may be affected by weight, age, conditioning or a combination of those. If Pacquiao isn’t able to carry the added weight on his body, he’ll be slow and easier for Dela Hoya to hit. But if his body has adjusted to the extra pounds, Pacquiao should be faster than Dela Hoya who is six years older. Pacquiao’s lateral and head movement could leave a dizzy Dela Hoya punching air. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Power. Because he’s naturally bigger, Dela Hoya will be stronger than Pacquiao in the ring. Dela Hoya has the power to knock out Pacquiao with a single blow while for Pacquiao to bring down Dela Hoya, it will take an accumulation of punches. The key is to avoid Dela Hoya’s bombs. Dela Hoya likes to set up his power shots with his left jab so if Pacquiao can slip it, he’ll be hard to catch. Advantage: Dela Hoya.
• Experience. Pacquiao has fought 283 rounds in 52 fights since 1995 while Dela Hoya has logged 300 rounds in 44 bouts since 1992. They’ve fought a slew of future Hall of Famers with Dela Hoya probably mixing it up with a higher grade of opposition. Dela Hoya could be shop-worn or “overfought” and if he is, experience will be a liability. Pacquiao knows what it’s like to fight under the Vegas lights like Dela Hoya. The glitz won’t be a distraction either way. Advantage: Even.
• Hunger. With De la Hoya’s billion dollar empire, it’s difficult to imagine why the Golden Boy continues to risk life and limb inside the ring. He hopes to retire in a blaze of glory at Pacquiao’s expense but will his body hold up? There isn’t a hungrier fighter than Pacquiao at his level of fighting ability. Pacquiao doesn’t only fight for money but also for personal glory and most importantly, national pride. This is his shot at immortality. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Resilience. In a war of attrition, the fighter who makes critical adjustments along the way to take the initiative should be tougher down the stretch. How to cope with unavoidable circumstances, like getting cut, is a test of character and heart. The fighter who is less predictable has a better chance of catching his opponent when he’s not looking. Advantage: De la Hoya.
• Vulnerability. The ability to take a punch is vital. Dela Hoya is known for his granite chin. His only loss by knockout came in the Bernard Hopkins fight and when Dela Hoya was counted out from a punch to the side of the body, it didn’t seem like he was badly hurt. In contrast, Pacquiao has been stopped twice. Advantage: De la Hoya.
• Cornerwork. Veterans Angelo Dundee and Nacho Beristain are in Dela Hoya’s camp. How the oldtimers are getting along is a question mark. Whether Dela Hoya engaged them for publicity purposes or not is another question mark. If Dela Hoya listens to both oldtimers, he might end up confused. Neither has a fighter’s mentality like Freddie Roach, a former pro who knows what it’s like to put on gloves and take a shot. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Defense. Dela Hoya started boxing with the right fundamentals. Pacquiao learned the basics through experience. Dela Hoya has good defensive instincts. When he’s in trouble, extricating is no problem. Pacquiao is a natural braveheart who doesn’t back down from a challenge. His offense is his defense. Advantage: Dela Hoya.
• Intelligence. Executing a fight plan to perfection requires a lot of smarts. For Pacquiao, he can’t afford to make a mistake because he’s up against a bigger, stronger and extremely dangerous opponent. If he beats Dela Hoya, it won’t be just because of his fighting skills. It’ll also be because he’s smarter. De la Hoya has everything to lose and little to gain while it’s the reverse for Pacquiao. Roach knows Pacquiao must outthink Dela Hoya in the trenches and destroy his will to win. Advantage: Pacquiao.
• Stamina. If the fight goes the full route, the fighter with the sturdier set of lungs will finish with fresher legs. If Dela Hoya’s weight reduction program took a heavy toll, he’ll be easy prey for Pacquiao like Erik Morales was in their third meeting. To win, Pacquiao must be prepared to hit and run all 12 rounds without tiring out. If Dela Hoya can’t keep pace, it’ll be curtains for the Golden Boy. Advantage: Pacquiao.
In the final analysis, it will be Pacquiao over Dela Hoya by a close decision. Pacquiao will turn Dela Hoya around like a top and prevent him from getting untracked. He’ll slide away from Dela Hoya’s left hook and counter with a left to the body. Pacquiao’s southpaw stance will bother Dela Hoya. The right hand will be a big weapon against the Golden Boy because it will travel less distance to connect than the left. A sustained body attack will sap Dela Hoya’s energy but it may not be enough to make him quit.
Dela Hoya’s chances of scoring a knockout are higher in the early rounds when he’s fresher. That’s fair warning for Pacquiao to stay away from striking distance. Once Dela Hoya is softened up and tired, Pacquiao can step up his attack to establish control.
The situation is definitely winnable for Pacquiao but it will take the execution of a perfect fight plan to repulse Dela Hoya.
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