Does Zab Judah have a chance?

Yeah he has a chance and there is some definite value at that number, I hit him at +350 when it opened.  It all depends on what version of Zab shows up; a focused and determined one or one who is unsure of himself.  Cotto is in tremendous shape for this fight; at the 7 day weigh-in yesterday he was only 1 pound off the welterweight limit at 148.


Here is what I wrote in a thread about a a week or so ago:

Cotto/Judah
Yeah, that +350 was where 5dimes opened the fight.  Right now it is at +275 which I still think is a very nice price on Judah.  I could not lay the chalk here on Cotto with his chin issues, Zab being a southpaw (can you say Chop-Chop?), and him being in against the highest quality fighter he has faced; of course Zab has his own set of chin concerns.  The only other play I would consider on the fight would by Judah by KO which I would think would be around +425 when it opens.  For Zab to win this fight he is going to have to do so in the first 6 rounds.  If Cotto's chin holds up and takes this into the later rounds than his body shots and workrate will wear Zab down.

Do you think it is any coincidence that Cotto's handlers have put him in against light hitting guys in his last 4 fights since the near debacles with Chop-Chop and Ricardo Torres?  Zab is the first guy at 147 he has faced who can actually check his chin hard.

That's because he has only fought once since the Mayweather fight and that lasted 1 round.  He was suspended for a year by the Nevada commission after the brawl and came back with a feature against Ruben "Big Bum" Galvan on ESPN2 in April. Zab was about to get him out of there, but the fight was ruled a no contest due to a cut from an accidental elbow.

I don't think that it will go the distance.  Zab catches Miguel early or Miguel gets rid of Zab late IMO.  I wouldn't play the O/U.

I think that you will see it end in the +230 to +250 range, with late money coming in on Zab.  Both are in great shape, but adding to what I said earlier; I think Zab is more mature after his latest suspension and he knows this is probably his last big opportunity if he doesn't pull the upset.  I think the value here lies with Zab and any value on Cotto lies in him by decision (he is at -129 by KO).

5dimes offered fight outcome props on the fight today and I went ahead and finished off my action on the fight.

Here is my final Zab action on the fight:
.50 of a unit on Zab (+350)
.45 of a unit on Zab (+280)
.25 of a unit on Zab Inside the Distance (+500)

Small play on Cotto to cover Zab losing (I think pride will keep him on his feet in NYC even if it's not his night):
.30 of a unit on Cotto by 12rd Decision (+398)

So in summary if.....
Zab wins inside the distance: 4.4 units of profit
Zab wins by decision: 2.45 units of profit
Cotto wins by 12rd decision: Break Even
Cotto makes Zab do his Kostya Tszyu dance: Lose 1.5 units
Draw: Lose .5 of a unit

Line seems to be dropping everywhere on Judah.  Brooklyn must be laying some cash down with me on Super.

I'm waiting for the FNF's Outcomes to get released. But suffice it to say, I really liked what I saw of my boy (my highest status of glossing a Boxer/Team); MAC working out this week. Dude looks stacked upstairs. Prolly for the 1st time ever, that makes me wonder; (if you know what I mean). As MAC was already a very big Welter, & he will blow up, 10-15 lbs. post weigh-in. That typed, he's never been a really ripped, or deeply cut Welter. A massive one, but not one w/ a real wow physique factor. Until now.

I was reading a preview 2day...that suggested that Zab wilts under tip-top pressure fighters.  Baldy, Spinks, FMayJr. (who is perfect), Tszyu. All more active than usual fighters, all letting their Hands go. None have the Power of Cotto. 2 have more hand-speed, but MAC's hand-speed ain't all that bad itself, in fact it's above ave., prolly B- or so. Also, you can make a legit argument that Zab (whom I do like), is 1-4 vs. the Top-5 guys he's fought. Though; for some mutual Chin ?'s, Zab has been stopped once, MAC never. That's a Total hint to me.

Now; be clear; I do expect this is Zab at his best. He's gonna be on Versus if he gets beat, maybe subjugated to USA (old-school reset). So I'm also expecting an EPIC fight. Possibly a double KD fight. In fact; I'd bet a Prop on that if I could find such.

GLA!
bigeiii

I wouldn't throw Spinks in there, Zab demolished him in their rematch.  I have a feeling we are in for a very nice fight Saturday night.

By the way Bigeiii, I like the USA reset.  USA Tuesday Night Fights helped develop my love for the sport when I was growing up.  They still have TNF knockout PPV's offered on my cable system weekly; I have a hard time believing that someone would pay 10 bucks to watch fights that happened over 10 years ago.

When you look at the two fighters' mentalities, the difference is night and day. In Judah you have a guy without a passion for fighting. You could say he is soft. In Cotto you have perhaps the most dedicated fighter in the game and a guy who is as strong mentally as physically. Tonight when they ask Teddy Atlas about the fight I know what he'll say: "If you're a guy that has some doubts about yourself, Cotto is a guy that's going to bring that out."

Styles make fights and Judah is tailor-made for Cotto. Remember, Baldomir is a pressure fighter (albeit not on the same plane as Cotto) and Spinks and Floyd are runners to varying degrees. Also note that Zab really dislikes getting hit to the body. Judah is going to Xplode when he feels the pressure come Saturday night.

Cotto is much much stronger at 147 than at 140 where he had a hard time making weight. That is why it may have seemed like he had a questionable chin against Torres. But even when he got rocked, all he did was come on stronger. Judah will NEVER have such resolve.

I won't even get into the matchmaking side of this. Anyone in the boxing know realizes how good Top Rank is at making fights.

Fullbrights will be kissing the cash goodbye come Saturday night.

Yup. Me 2 Fullbrights.
I used to watch that all the time back in the very late 70's, & right on up. Though I would not pay $0.10 to watch oldA stuff like that. I might look at it for free, but that'd be it. Lottsa future Champs cut their teeth on USA. Any1 recall this kid from NY, initials were M.T. I do. Plenty of Talent went thru USA, back in the day.

brianedco:
I took Cotto myself. But don't crackback on Fbs just yet, he's done very very well in this Boxing Fourm. (though it won't pain me if he does not this time)

GLA!
bigeiii

 

We will see.  I'll take my chances, I think that I have proven over time that they are above average.  So I guess you are laying 3-1 on Cotto or taking him at small chalk by KO?  I consider myself in the know a bit and yeah Top Rank is great at making fights, but it still comes down to the fighters.  Just ask Arum, I am sure he didn't expect Viloria and Arce to lose on his last PPV show in April.  Take a look at one of Top Rank's biggest blunders of recent times; putting Morales in with Zahir "Hug Me" Rahim only to watch him lose to a mediocre fighter.

A few questions for you:

If Cotto is so strong at 147, why did he look so mediocre and hittable against Urkal on his home turf (Oktay, not Steve)?

Why has Top Rank not put Cotto in with a half way decent puncher since the near disasters against Torres and Corley? Undoubtedly they have some chin concerns.

If Corley can drop a bomb and have Cotto in trouble from the southpaw stance, doesn't that bode well for Zab?

Has Cotto ever fought a fighter with the talent and resume of Judah (former recognized Welterweight Champ)?