Floyd Mayweather/Ricky Hatton under 11½

Thanks,

Brian

Both men are undefeated. Hatton is 43-0 with 31 KO’s, while Mayweather is 38-0 with 24 KO’s. They’re one year apart in age, Floyd is slightly taller and enjoys a huge 7-inch reach advantage.

I could literally write a book about this fight with all the different ‘angles’ and you-name-it, but after much study, deliberation and thought believe that the good ol’ “under” play is the best and safest way to go. In this one I truly believe that we are getting excellent value and I do not envision this fight making it past the midway point of round 12.

Hatton will try to pressure Floyd by coming at him as hard as he can (in a smart way and utilizing angles), and for as long as he can. The ‘Hitman’ is extremely strong and although he ‘balloons’ in weight between fights, for this one he has trained long and hard and gotten himself into excellent condition and shape. He has added the weight properly over time, not like the Collazo fight in which he was given a controversial victory and did not look good at all.

Contrary to popular belief, Floyd has looked vulnerable at times. He was off to a very bad start against Zab Judah, was losing most of the early rounds to Oscar DeLaHoya, was given the win in his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo even though many thought he had actually lost etc. etc.

To cut to the chase, Hatton is liable to ‘nail’ Mayweather to the body, hurt him and slow him down and perhaps even knock him out…underestimate Ricky at one’s own peril. On the other hand, Floyd is still Floyd and he is liable to ‘expose’ Hatton. He has said that he has spotted serious weaknesses and ‘flaws’ in Hatton and that he will tell us all about them after the fight. I do not think this fight is going to go according to ‘script’. With Hatton’s high-pressure style and work-rate and Floyd’s counter-punching ability, something is likely to give.

The ‘dark horse’ in this fight is the fact that Hatton has very bad skin and has a serious problem with getting cut. If Mayweather starts catching him with his slashing punches and Hatton gets cut, which I can almost assure you that he will, there is an excellent chance that Cortez will stop the fight. He did so when Fernando Vargas was still competitive and coming on against Mosley when his eye was closing and this being in Las Vegas, you can be certain that if there is any doubt about a fighter’s safety and health, they will err on the side of caution and call a halt to the contest.

I could make a case for Hatton but the entire world seems to be all over him and he is no ‘sure shot’, not by a longshot! As well, who needs Floyd as a 2-1 favorite, when he has a few question marks of his own and has never yet had to really dig down deep. When he has faced slight adversity, he didn’t seem to handle it all that well. Floyd hasn’t been knocking out too many people lately but don’t think for a minute that he wouldn’t like to do so this night. He ‘butchered’ another tough and game customer in Gatti and it’s possible that this one could end up resembling that ending even if it happens a little bit later on. Or it could end up being Ricky hammering a ‘Pretty Boy’ who may have underestimated him and taken him too lightly. There are the usual rumors and whispers that Floyd’s brittle hands are acting up again and that he is not 100% physically.

Any way you slice and dice this one, with a take-back of better then 2-1, we are definitely on the ‘right’ side of things. This looks to be a very fast-paced and serious fight with a lot of pressure and a lot of punches thrown. There are a million things that can happen over the course of a fight and I can see a slew of ways for this one to not make it to the final bell. Hatton is no Baldomir and Carlos to me didn’t look all that out of place in the ring with Floyd. On the other side, Hatton has never faced anyone with Floyd’s ‘gifts’, even though Floyd doesn’t appear to be quite the same fighter at these higher weights and neither does Hatton, so there you go, enough to drive a fight fan ‘nuts’!

I'm going to play this one to stay UNDER 11½ rounds and not care or worry about who wins. To me it looks much more likely that it will NOT be a distance fight and there are a lot of reasons and angles as to why and with the huge price we are getting, it is a smart play that is definitely grade ‘A’ in value.

Play: Mayweather/Hatton under 11½ +2.31 Risking $1000 (Pinnacle)