Fourth of July Weekend Picks (7/4/08-7/5/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +9.01 units

Kendall Holt vs. Ricardo Torres
Holt By Decision (+150) (Bodog)
1.5 units
Torres Gets Knocked Down or Out (+140) (Bodog)
0.5 unit

   Yesterday, I studied the youtube footage of the first fight, and it was glaringly obvious that Holt is a much better boxer than Torres.  Moreover, Holt has superior handspeed, as he was able to rock Torres several times when the Colombian brawler tried to force his way inside.  In the first round, I thought Holt hurt Torres to the body when Torres went down, but the ref ruled it a slip.  Given that I was watching an Internet stream, I'm willing to give the ref a pass on that one.  But bias seemed evident at the end of round 2 when Holt delivered a pretty three punch combo to the body, and the ref paused the action to warn Holt for hitting low.  After looking at it again, I'm sure that Holt's punches were above the belt line. 
    Holt displayed some nice footwork in round 3, making Torres miss, and then sending him reeling with a left hook to the body followed by a clean overhand right to the head.  Torres began to apply some good pressure on Holt in the middle rounds, but slow motion replays of the inside action showed that Torres was mostly missing while Holt connected with his fast counter combos.  Holt knocked Torres down in round 6 when Torres became over-aggressive in an attempt to pin Holt against the ropes.  This was pretty much the same punch that hurt Torres in round 3, the overhand right to the head.  Overall, Holt has better boxing instincts, superior footwork, faster hands, and better ring generalship.  Torres is quite mechanical in his movement, and that allows Holt to pretty much box rings around the plodding Colombian. 
  Of course, I would be remiss if I didn't address the 11th round "KO" by Torres.  I believe Holt when he says that the ring had become very slippery due to beer being spilled by the raucous ringside crowd, as there were some noticeable slippages.  When Holt gets knocked down the first time, that was a pretty clean hit by Torres, but it was more of a flash knockdown, as Holt seemed fine afterwards.  When the fight gets stopped with about a minute left, Holt appeared to be slipping, and he looks down at his feet (which indicates that there was something wrong with his footing).  Of course, Torres is punching in a flurry, but he had delivered innocuous flurries all match, as he's just too slow for the quick reflexes of Holt.  The ref's stoppage was completely immature, and Holt immediately protests.  This was not a hurt fighter.
   I expect more of the same on Saturday night, except there won't be the Colombian hijinks ringside, and the ref should be more neutral.  The reason why I include the prop on Torres being knocked down is that he's such a reckless fighter that I think there's a good chance that Holt again catches him with some clean counters when Torres tries to come in (I'm predicting the overhand right).  However, it's in Holt's best interest to box rather than bang, so I don't see him being tempted to "go for the kill."  Also, Torres has experience getting up from knockdowns. 
    One final note: I was wavering between the Bodog decision prop at +150 and the 5dimes decision prop at +168.  The difference between the two is that the Bodog prop allows bettors to win on a technical decision when the fight doesn't go the full 12 rounds, while the fight must go the full 12 rounds with the 5dimes prop.  I'm willing to give up a little extra juice in order to receive the possible benefit of the technical decision.

I agree about the stylistic clash, Coweringbeef, but that's the main reason for my play.  Torres' bobbing is part of that mechanical style I'm referring to in my writeup.  It almost seems as if he's been choreographed to bob at regular intervals during his forward movement, which keeps Torres away from Holt's long arms, resulting in little action from the outside.  For this reason, Torres won't get worn down over the course of the fight, and you can throw out the possibility of an attrition-type KO.

Even though I also question Holt's chin, I just don't see Torres as being able to hit Holt enough to make that an issue.  Torres' relative lack of hand speed allows Holt to dodge almost all of his power punches, and it's Torres who usually ends up the victim during the inside exchanges.  As a result, Torres ends up having to respect Holt, who can put on a bit of a boxing clinic as Torres recovers on the outside.  For action fans, these rounds really aren't very entertaining as Holt probably ends up throwing less than 30 punches.  But he's always outlanding Torres, and that should suit Holt, as minimizing exchanges means minimizing danger.  If Holt can win the rounds while doing so, why should he change his gameplan?  I don't see why he wouldn't want the fight continuing along the same path as last time, and that should result in a wide decision win.

Great call, Weepaul.  Torres came out so fast and aggressive that he ran right into that headbutt.  Holt then caught him clean, and it was over.

Thanks bud. There is no doubt the headbutt was the deciding factor in this fight but I do believe turnaround is fair play after Torres whacked Holt with that cheapshot after the second knockdown.

I'm glad you took Torres to get knocked down or out. It takes some of the sting away.

That certainly was a head butt from hell that set up the savage KO. I can't believe the shobox announcers were still saying the glancing body punch Holt landed might have broken his ribs after the first few replays. You really have to wonder though, after being put to sleep like that, if Torres will ever be the same. He could end up with the Jaidon Codrington syndrome.

Oh, yeah, Torres totally got what he deserved, and the butt wasn't Holt's fault.  Torres was fighting reckless, and that's what happens when you eschew all semblance of defense.