Posted:
#1
I've had success handicapping boxing lately, so I figured I should start sharing my picks. Here's my first post.
Yori Boy Campas vs. Norberto Bravo
Over 8.5 (-110)
3.3 units
Although Bravo got brutally KO'd in the first round by super prospect Andre Berto in February, he should be able to go the distance in his hometown against an aging veteran like Campas. Campas' recent opponents (Billy Lyell and Eromosele Albert) are about the same level as Bravo, and both those contests went to decision. If anyone's gonna score a KO, it'll be Campas, but Bravo's fighting his hometown of Tucson, so I'll think that he'll maneuver enough to survive for 10 rounds. Plus, it's a Telefutura main event, and with the recent exception of Jesus Soto Karass' KO of Jose Antonio Ojeda, these bouts tend to go the distance.
Yutaka Niida vs. Eriberto Gejon
Gejon (+145)
2 units
Gejon's only loss occured against Niida when they clashed in September 2005. The fight ended up being stopped in the 10th round due to a cut over Gejon's right eye that was caused by an accidental headbutt. Niida won by split decision, although some observers feel like Gejon had the upper hand. At 5'5", Gejon is four inches taller than the diminutive Niida. Niida has been in a lot of close fights (including two other split decision victories) in his rise to the WBA minimumweight title, so he's not dominating the opposition. Look for Gejon to use his superior size and the lessons from the first fight to take the championship on the road.
Juan Urango vs. Nasser Athumani
Under 4.5 (-115)
1.15 unit
Urango can throw some big shots, as evidenced by a body blow on Ricky Hatton that stopped the British champion in his tracks. Although Urango hasn't KO'd any opponents when stepping up in class, that's a result of a plodding style that doesn't allow him to find many openings. But Athumani is there to be hit, as all four of his lossed have been by knockout: twice in the first round, once in the second round, and once in the fifth. Those early knockouts make this under proposition worth a shot even though I'm normally leery of such low numbers.
Shamone Alvarez vs. Germaine Sanders
Sanders (+525)
0.3 unit
Although Alvarez beat a very tough Jose Luis Cruz in June, that fight might have suited Alvarez's style, as Cruz is more of a come-at-you puncher, which allowed Alvarez to counterpunch and move on his way to a wide decision. Meanwhile, Sanders will try to use the entire ring in an effort to score points without being hit hard. On Alvarez's resume, the only opponent other than Cruz with a good record was Enrique Gutierrez, but that fight went to a majority decision, and then Gutierrez lost to a very mediocre fighter in Edvan Dos Santos Barrios (9-4-1) in his next bout. Also, Sanders has won six straight since losing two fights in a row four years ago. I'd have to say that Alvarez is still too untested to be favored this much (-800) over a competent boxer, so there's some value in a Sanders play.
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