Handicapping (Selection: Sport, Match-up, Wager Type & Amount...)

    I know this was posted by a friend (handicapping partner) somewhere on Covers. This shows some key differences and don't forget you greatest advantage in betting... Selection.
   You select the sportsbook (or elsewhere), sport, game or match-up, type of wager(s), when to place (earlier or later for better odds), amount, etc... this was an extreme reinforcement playing poker full-time. Online during its peak gave you a great advantage (as live poker rooms are limited) as you could decide what site, game, structure, amount, and table selection (the only feature they lacked was your seating position which is extremely important as live casino's you can request and when someone leaves you have option to move before anyone else as online lacked that powerful feature).
   A simple statement by an author said if poker is my job then optimizing your advantage is key. He made a common statement but the underlying principles are what it's all about. He stated "I'd rather be a slightly above average person sitting at a table with consistent losing players, than being considered the #1 player in the world and playing at a table with the #2 player and so on up to the 9th best player." Simple point is +EV, and the first scenario insures you win decent and consistently where the other scenario has such parity among players that even being the best, the luck factor is to great that it takes a long time to show the +EV which is small to begin with.
    My thread below will be basketball vs football, and using objective and subjective handicapping. Using objective (numbers) for boxing is like betting suicide as 90% of it is subjective (opinion).

Info on covering topics: surface, scoring attempts, possessions, daily action, more opportunities, and bankroll turnover.

Surface: Basketball, besides for logo’s, all are the same. Football you have artificial surfaces (use to be grass, or mixed) that are different texture, and the many different effects the weather, rain, snow, sleet, wind and temperature have upon an athletes footing and maneuvering, not to mention the texture of the ball’s surface. Even dome’s have severe wind drafts causing field goal kickers problems with a swirling wind.

Scoring Attempts: The typical NFL game involves and average from 6 to 8 scoring situations, as compared to 100 to 120 in an NBA game. Consider this? A judgment call by an official can swing a game up to 14 points (16 / 2pt conversions), or 2 scoring situations, which equates to about 25% of average scoring situations in a game. In basketball, a judgment call by a referee will usually swing a game an average of 4 points (7 pts w/ 3 pointers & foul). Measure this against 100 or more situations in an NBA game, and you will see that it amounts to only about a 2% swing in an average game involving well over 200 points.

Possessions: In basketball the number of possessions is around 400 or more including the total for both teams. In football the number of possessions are somewhere around 20 when including both teams. This equates to a disparity of about 20 to 1 in favor of basketball, which better represents team skill, leaving chance much less of a determinant in a game’s final outcome.

Daily Action: Unlike football where the vast majority of games are played only on weekends, basketball is played everyday over a 7 month season. Obviously, this gives the winning sports bettor much more opportunities to make money.

More Opportunities (More Money): With more games, more scoring situations per game, fewer players, and a much simple game, relevant mathematics and good money management strongly favor the in-depth handicapper betting on basketball for profit rather than football. It definitely gives the basketball bettor a chance to make many times more money than in football.

Bankroll Turnover: One can turn over one’s betting bankroll in basketball up to eight more often than he might in football. This equates to making much more money. Also, the astute basketball handicapper can win at a higher percentage than his equivalent in football. This factor alone can compound winnings much faster, especially when using a predetermined percentage of bankroll per play, and increasing bet size on a plateau basis.

What I have for NCAA hoops is what I call profiled range games. I use a software application I built a decade ago, and it does a search and finds games that fit criteria, then I take a look to see if it is justified and to what degree. I have a few dozen filter topics, and sometimes certain games will fall into more than one and sometimes within 4 or 5 topics, and for each topic I use a weighted ranking system to determine the value of the game.
Below is an example of one topic.
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Rematch of Conference Play

            (first 4 are mandatory factors)

***      Team A (superior) as the visitor defeats Team B at home.

***      Team B is now the visitor.

***      Team B must be competitive and have a decent defense.

***      Team B to show a decent ATS record or an improving one.

            (next 4 are additional factors)

**        Team A covers the spread in the first matchup.

**        Young teams are inconsistent using this method.

*          Team B is receiving double digit spread.

*          Team A has an undisciplined and non-motivating coach.

After Game Review: Add rebounds, steal, and the other team’s turnovers and get a total for each team (Hustle Equation). Compare each team’s Hustle Equation and the greater the number shall indicate the amount of extra opportunities that team had. This will be a good indicator if Team A came out playing flat with no incentive to win big.

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I would use a stat source and download entire game into my software matrix and it filters games to how I set them thus allowing me more time handicapping games that fit a game scenario criteria and less time I have to search for them. It took some time to build it as the biggest factor was where you got your info from. I had my program set for several sources, but the best program I used Stat Fox for my raw data.

Anyone familiar with some or all the handicapping pros & cons between sports. The one great betting opportunity that the NFL has over all other sports is when you can catch a middle using different sportsbooks, betting early-mid-late and trying to project the late money (on popular teams; Notre Dame, late game favorites, etc), but in boxin usually it's the big name (even if he's ages and got nothing, all they remember is the great ex-champ and HBO 24/7 shows how ready he is -LOL) or a favorite, or ethnic arena favorites... such as a puerto rican fighter fighting in MSG or A.C., mexican fighters at Vegas or LA (staples center, or Pechange, etc...).
The NFL about week 4 is when lines makers have enough subjective data to make a very accurate line. So contrary to what many people have thought (I don't know why), the more accurate a line is, the better opportunity you have to catch a middle (or a side). Yes, catching a 7 or a 3 is a hard spread to catch as they just move the odds and rarely come-off 7. Even certain books won't let you pay the double juice to bring it up or down.

    One of the last monster NFL middles I caught was November 6th, 2005 and the Bears were away facing the Saints. Many sportbooks opened with Bears -2.5 (-115) I unloaded for me a mega amount (as I had been playing the highest stake cash games In Vegas for around 18 months. At that time besides all the online satellite players throwing away cash at live games, for almost 2 years I had yet to have 2 losing poker sessions consecutively. This was do to tables selection, game selection, seat selection, knowing what seats are going to give me 2/3's of my profits, but I was also running very HOT (online better), so all the sites I was full as was Neteller. I got to use my friends VIP pinnacle account (this kid to a few thousand to plus 8 million in months, then overall dropped it all and half million his own and 3 million borrowed. Besides his story, he was able to 100k per game (and somehow with other places near a 250k total per wager). I banged 100k on Bears -2.5 (-115), then it went to -3 (-110) and -3 (125), and I was getting anxious to buy the 1/2, so when I tried, my worst nightmare... "Sorry, VIP account wagers in excess of 10k are limited to altered or reduced bets". Fortunately, it was 1 year prior to the close of the StarDust and even better they had Saints +3 (+130), and I bought half point at Saints +3.5 (+-100).
  The game with 8 minutes left went out and I was using online. Bears were 17-10 and middle wasn't so good right now. The next play Brooks score TD and tied it 17-17. In my mind was Gould missing his last attempt around 35 years. Now with 10 seconds, Gould made a 38 yard FG and Bears lead 20-17 with 4 seconds. I feared an interception return, and Brooks threw the interception, but Vasher near mid-field gained 5 yards and it stayed 20-17.

Worst case would have been if I took Saints +3 (+130) and I would have one Bears -2.5 (100k) and had a push on the other.
  Overall my point is NFL makes the most accurate lines, and for a good reason, you can combine all the other popular USA sports and in 16 games + up to four more post season, they have to be accurate in order to win. It's a sport they set the line to start using stats, but it is majorly swayed as it is subjectively analyzed. You can use this to your advantage and instead of trying to beat the system, use what they give you, games from week 4 to week 13 are very accurate lines. Also, although the NFL use to have more parity, that item still remain. That's why such a large number of games are 3,4,7,10... also 37 & 41 are the two most common total numbers. Lately with new offense formations and plays, it swings both ways, but seems to allow the slight edge to offense. I remember betting ML and large bets on the Air Force years ago as team that were ranked in the top 15 had never played against the wishbone and similar formations. Even though they practice defending them, practice is not the same as game time. Another wager that was good to bet with (or parlay) was the under, mainly because if Air Force would be burning up the clock keeping the defense on the field and keeping their opponents offensive without developing anytime to get into rhythm. Even though my only though was a middle, and I normally middle games I have a nice range of numbers, I pass on it.
 One evening I think it was 2002 and the NBA had 76ers vs Knicks. Iverson was declared out for the game and the line at MSG was -2, but during pregame he was shooting and I got a call, and few minutes after they stated Iverson would play. The line didn't move yet (this was very odd), so I did a max play which was 2k. Now tip-off was 7:05 and I bet at 6:25PM. That line moved a point every minute and by 7:35 it was Phil -8. Now my situation was this, I got Iverson playing -2, but I originally planned middling. Now if I do a true middle, I have 5 points to win 4k, and 2 points to win 2k. I felt that I would do a half-middle (or an intentional side) and bet 1k on the Knicks +8. By the time I hit click it had went down to 7.5, so I agreed to the move. I won $900 as the Sixers rallied late and won 104-96... by eight points. That one-second was costly, $1100. If I had caught the 8.5, $3k. That's the breaks!
I know it seems unconventional betting 50-to-100x more, but it all depended on my liquidity. Whether it's $100, $100k... an edge is an edge. If you bet accordingly to your bankroll at the time and handicap well, you will keep the level of peril at distance.