Posted:
#1
This is a very interesting fight happening at the right time for both fighters. I've never been very high on either fighter, but they both go into this fight with ways to win....
Hatton needs to stop drinking like an idiot and having 50 pound weight swings. He is starting to remind me of an over-rated everyman. At least he will if he finds a way to lose this fight. I think bringing in Mayweather Sr. was an excellent move for him. Sometimes fighters need a big loss to tell them it is time to grow up. I think Ricky is at that point - maybe.
I expect Mayweather Sr to have one gamplan, and that is pressure. I don't think they are worried about Paulie's power, so they will walk right through him and make him grind it out on the inside, a strategy that worked well for Cotto. I think Hatton's early inside work to the body will go a long way towards slowing down Paulie and his speed. This will be huge in the later rounds.
Paulie's speed and jab are his best chance to win this fight. He has the ability to make people look silly - something that could happen given Hatton's poor footwork and head first style. The only question is can he do it for twelve rounds? I'm not so sure. If he can manage to stop Hatton from turning it into a phone booth fight he could run away with this one. If he can finally throw the right hand off the jab we could have a shocker on our hands...
Intangibles:
Will the weight issues with Hatton leave him gassed late in the fight? Costing him several rounds in the process? This is my main concern and would be exactly why he would lose this fight. Will he respond to Mayweather Sr or will it be a meltdown and a brief end to the relationship? Can he switch gears midfight if Malignaggi starts to bank rounds?
Does Malignaggi have a right hand? Will it hold up for the entire fight? Will he become a one handed fighter trying to hold off a bull in a china shop? Can he muster up another gutty performance if Hatton brings it to the inside in a slugfest?
Prediction:
I've went back and forth on this one. However, I only can see one true outcome. I think Hatton walks through Paulie and grinds out a clear victory via points. I also could see Paulie having to fight with one hand - a situation that would get him stopped in the last half of this fight. I'm pretty sure he would be able to still use his speed and jab to last to the final bell. With little to be gained by going with the straight Hatton by decision prop, I'm going to be laying chalk for the first time in a long time.
Ricky Hatton, 480/200
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