Juan Diaz + 18.5 Points=== A Juicy Take!

Wow!  This line moved up from 15.5 to 18.5 in a matter of days. Not many are giving Diaz much of a chance because of their 1st fight. True, Marquez figured out the Baby bull in the later rounds (as I predicted) a year & a half ago. So what's different about tonight's fight & why should the results be any different. First of all, you have an aging fighter who is moving up & down in weight over the last year & looked quite slow in his last fight at the higher weight. But he fought Mayweather?... you might say & he makes all fighters look slow by comparison. Point taken but remember we're taking about a 36 year old who's hey day is well behind them. Now while Diaz  is not the most skilled boxer on the planet,there are 2 things you have to grant him.

1. He is a relentless worker inside the ring

2. He has the heart of a lion.

I can't underestimate either of Diaz's strengths in a match-up like this. No aging fighter enjoys being pressured & forced to exert tremendous energy in their declining years. If Marquez is just a little slower in his counter punching ability..it could make a world of difference tonight. Diaz's claim that he will try & box more is almost laughable. He knows he can never win using that strategy against a sharp shooter like JMM. The only way Diaz wins is to out work Marquez. Try to utilize his jab & set up the short left hook. I said in another thread that this one might come down to who wants it more. I hoping that it turns out to be Diaz & he's able to beat a declining champ who's been forced to move up & down in weight recently. 5 years ago Diaz would have very little chance against someone with JMM ability, but tonight I think things might be a lot different. Even if he comes up a little short 18.5 points seems far to much of a handicap to be giving him at this stage of the game IMHO.

Diaz +18.5 points  5 Units

Diaz +340 ML   2 Units


GLTU!

The next top tier fighter Diaz beats, will be the first.  Sure, if Diaz hears the final bell then yes, I believe he'll cover that 18.5 pretty easily.  The issue is getting to the final bell.  JMM looks in tip top shape, Diaz looks soft.

Diaz always looks soft. It just the way he's built.

If you're gonna play on Diaz just play him to win a DEC at +690.  He's not knocking out Marquez.  I dont think he's winning at all, frankly, but if you're gonna play him, thats the play, in hopes that JMM gets old overnight and gets outworked....

I agree. I'd go with Diaz by any dec just in case there is a technical dec.

The problem with that straegy is you leave yourself no safety net. Marquez winning a close decision is a distinct possibility.

I agree. I'd take Diaz by "any dec" just in case there is a technical dec.

Oops I posted twice because it didn't show the first time. My bad. The +18.5 is as a hedge bet or even the other way around is nice.

Good points Red, the going from 135 to 147 at his age wasn't a bright idea, now dropping back down again doesn't bode well for someone who has been in many wars as he has.

If this fight goes 12 I believe it will be contender for fight of the year, and the +18.5 points will be a very good pick.

While Diaz is relentless, he isn't as relentless as he used to be. Still if he can apply the pressure he applied the first time he can have success early.

I do think he has HEART, I like the fact that he got off the canvas and was willing to get knocked out when he could of just stood on the canvas.

Him getting up and willing to exchange knowing he was beat shows a ton of heart.

My only thing I question on him is when he gets cut.. he tends to not be as aggressive.. even if it's not a bad cut I don't think that is a problem with heart but something happens when he sees his own blood.

Good luck with the pick. Still waiting on Casamayor pts handicap to parlay with Marquez (regular line,no prop). So we can BOTH win still with it going the distance, don't care if Marquez wins by only a point:)

Good luck to you and everyone else.

                             

Put a hedge on Marquez to win in rds 7-12, odds are pretty good at +265.  And I think thats a very possible outcome...

I agree with RED, if your taking Diaz the best play is the +18.5 points.

THis way if Diaz stops him you win, if Diaz loses by less than 19 he wins.

I believe if it goes 12 Marquez will squeak out the decision but why sweat it .. when you can take 18.5 pts if you like Diaz.

Even though I'm on Marquez, I believe Red's prop bet is the BEST bet for anyone picking Diaz.

                                            

                                            

I grabbed Diaz +18.5 (4 units) yesterday, like it very much.  Also got Pirog +160 (2 units) too.

Yes, +18.5 isnt bad as long as it gets to the cards, but those odds are what, -110?  If I'm playing Diaz I'm playing him by DEC at +690! And if he gets a stoppage, then so be it.  Stopping Marquez is very, very difficult.  Almost impossible.

This Pirog is a total friggin unknown.  First fight on US soil also.  He better knock Jacobs out.  Good luck getting the decision on the road in the other fighter's house.  Jacobs is a the house fighter.  Pirog by DEC is +490, probably for a reason, even though there are those who's opinion I respect that believe he can outbox Jacobs over the distance.  Getting the decision is another matter.

I usually don't bet on draws but I'm putting the biggest draw bet of my life ($55) on Pirog-Jacobs draw. I can see Pirog winning more rounds but judges having it a draw just to save face.

You might be going for Value but if you like Diaz like Red does (he gave his reasons which were spot on).

Regardless if you want the best chance of winning with Diaz +18.5 is the best option petty much even money.

If it's a tight fight.. and goes the distance you can lay back and relax instead of losing by a point and be so close to +690 or having that $100.

Again it depends on your betting style.. for a Hay Maker sure why not throw Diaz by decision, for a person who is betting to win and a good chance at winning that prop is best as a Diaz supporter.

I agree with you on the Pirog, you can find some of his fights.. but he will need one hell of a showing to get a decision in Vegas. I believe he needs a KO.

Jacobs can win this fight on points, but if he gets too aggressive which he can do.. he may leave a small opening. I don't see that happening I see Jacobs winning.

Even if it's a close fight Pirog will see what has been happening to Americans for years when fighting internationally. :)

Good luck to everyone regardless of who and how you bet!

Never bet on a points handicap. Can someone explain it to me?

The totality of All 3 judges scorecars. Will Diaz be within 18.5 points of the judges scorecars if it goes to the cards. A KO by Diaz is also a winner. If Marquez didn't have KO power this would be a sure bet.

Mcnulty buddy how are ya!

Here's how the point handicap goes.

Say you like Marquez tonight,  (prop bet) spread is -18.5 pts which means Marquez must win by 19 points  when all the 3 judges cards are combined.


Say he wins 117-110 117-110 117-110 Marquez is a winner he covers the spread!  (Marquez is the winner he covers the 18.5 pts handicap)

If you have Marquez laying the pts .. and he KO's Diaz you win automatically..if it goes the distance.. basically you tally up the difference between the score cards.

Now the flip side for Diaz backers

Say Marquez Wins 116-111 115-112 117-110  Marquez would win by only 15 pts total making it a loss for Marquez and a WIN for the PROP BET (DIaz backers win).

Think of football a team is favored by 7.5 points they win by 3 .. now in real life the team won  by 3 they get a win but for people who  were laying the 7.5 are LOSERS  (didn't cover).


So if someone takes 18.5 pts with Diaz .. they would win if Marquez doesn't cover the 18.5 pts hanidcap.

Hope this helps I know it's confusing at times as 5dimes has gazillions of props!

If I wrote too much I apologize I'm hyped up for the fight:)

                                        

Even though I cashed the 18.5 handicap bet....(barely) A few observations.

1st of all Diaz ought to immediately fire his trainer. That had to be the most ignorant game plan I've seen in many a year. Why in the world would you try to outbox a master boxer who is growing long in the tooth? The most obvious way to enhance your chances would be to put on constant pressure. It doesn't take an Einstein to figure out that most obvious fact. By slowing down the pace & letting Marquez have plenty of time to think Diaz ruined his only chance to win. When Diaz stated that he was going to try this strategy before the bout, I almost laughed myself out of my chair. I thought for sure he was trying to fake Marquez out & would do the opposite. But lo & behold, he was true to his word. Having stated all this I still think he showed tremendous heart by taking the latter rounds on sheer guts & determination. Hats off to Juan. I had him losing the fight 116-111.Marquez is on the downswing & will get destroyed by Kahn if they fight next. I guess I can't complain too much as I still picked up 3 Units on the fight. On to the next bout.

Red I agree bad game plan, Diaz needed to be Diaz even if it didn't work the first fight, he did well as an aggressor and that's all he knows,

Diaz looked lost trying to BOX Marquez, congrats on cashing in it may be be a 1/2 point but a WIN is a WIN :)

Sadly Marquez is chasing Pac-man but will end up fighting Khan and that will send him into retirement as Khan has every advantage over him.

When he gets his law degree in October he should sue his trainer :)

Diaz is a good guy, thankfully he ended the fight on his feet and has nothing to be ashamed of if he chooses to end his career.

I hope he does as I would hate to see him as a gate keeper.

Congrats again on the win

                               

OH and 5dimes saved my ass I waited days and days for the Casamayor handicap and it didn't go up so I parlayed it with a baseball game instead so I should be kissing the stars as Casamayor would have lost the pts handicap whatever it would have been.

Better sometimes to be lucky :)

                                      

Well we can only handicap a fight on what we assume will happen according to prior circumstances & present form. We never know what game plan the fighters will choose to enact. I still believe that if Diaz would have pushed the pace from round 1, he would have had a much better chance to pull off the upset. When I'm completely wrong on a fight I'm usually the 1st to admit it. If they fought again tomorrow I still would analyze it the same way. Marquez was all swollen & completely drained at the end of the fight. Can you imagine how tired he would have been if he didn't get a opportunity to set his own pace. But, luckily Diaz still had the fortitude to stay under the hanicap spot despite the horror game plan. I thought the fight was slightly choser then 2 out of the 3 judges did, because diaz won the last 3 rounds IMO. Thanks for your imput Rich!