Posted:
#1
Post fight write-up.Yesterday I was going to post to play Malignaggi to win by decision (or straight out +400 in case of a cut or other stoppage). Then I realized a fatal mistake I made before in a rematch fight. Both fighters were so highly ranked many years ago that a somewhat close fight would go to the fighter who lost the first fight to set-up a big payday trilogy. I overlooked that factor in the past.
Last night you had Juan Diaz who is a marketable commodity and Malignaggi who is not a box office draw. The reasons are simple, Malignaggi fights a style where he doesn't run, but doesn't bring that action many fight fans love, a war of punishment and knockouts. Diaz although consider a small puncher for his class, still brings constant pressure and can exhaust many fighters and get a late round knockout.
Even though this fight wasn't even close to the fight I had in the past, it was still about big money. Most have heard the rule, where there is money to be made, there will be (possible) cheating. Regardless of the outcome (even though not fair to Malinaggi), both fighters actualy gain. Diaz keeps a win on his somewhat tarnishing image, and Malinaggi gets praise.
The only post I was going to place was don't bet Diaz -450 (or higher on most places). I though just because of the style that Malignaggi would perform to win a small decision. In a case where there isn't a knockout, there are other factors. It first started out against Malignaggi when they made it an 18-ft ring. Then the two texan judges and the texan referee.At last we come to the 138.5lbs weigh-in. This is common among smaller or bigger fighters who are the bigger draw, or champion to make the fighter closer to their natural weight, to make it difficult for the opposition physically as well as I mental frustration.
I thought (and was lucky if it went according to many scorecards) a 115-113 Malignaggi victory. I also consiered the split decision factor. It was a close fight and if Diaz won a majority draw, I couldn't have a strong arguement for Malignaggi. That wasn't the case as we know, it was 118-110 in one judges score. That's the factor where I couldn't bet the fight either way. The over seemed likely but laying -250 over 11.5 rounds is always too risky. Anything from, DQ, cuts, swelling, and on and on could cause an early stop to the fight.
So, in point, besides the obvious, I had one thing to post. Don't bet Diaz (in the case of bad judges, crooked, etc). That was my mistake yesterday to the forum. Losing a wager like that is just as costly (and more depending on your wager and odds) as winning a wager.
It was a matter of styles and it was highly likely going to be a close fight. At 4-1 I will always take a 50-50 chance, or even a 60-40. In this case, too many factors relied on Diaz winning... MONEY!
For those that bet Malignaggi and lost: You had the right play at the wrong time (and that is important, considering the referee and judges, I estimated it to be a little more than Diaz -300. For those who bet Diaz, congratualations on a win. If you considered the possible bad juding factor, it wasn't a horrific play. If you didn't, consider yourself lucky on this one.
"Adversity causes some men to break, others to break records."
William A. Ward
0
. He epitomized what fight fans live for.
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