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Just saw the Margo/Mosley line

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Posted: #1
Am I the only one in shock to see that Over 10.5 is sitting at even money? This almost seems like stealing. I know Mosley looked pretty bad vs. Mayorga (even though he won easily), but that was at 154, do people really expect Margarito to walk through a guy with a beard like Mosley's? I don't see it. I'll be putting the majority of my cash on the Over and possibly some on Mosley by decision.
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by Kidcole35:

Am I the only one in shock to see that Over 10.5 is sitting at even money? This almost seems like stealing. I know Mosley looked pretty bad vs. Mayorga (even though he won easily), but that was at 154, do people really expect Margarito to walk through a guy with a beard like Mosley's? I don't see it. I'll be putting the majority of my cash on the Over and possibly some on Mosley by decision.

I agree. It was +120 first time I caught the line. I had a blurb about that somewhere deep in this forum. That might be the best even money bet in history. Period.

 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Kidcole35:

Am I the only one in shock to see that Over 10.5 is sitting at even money? This almost seems like stealing. I know Mosley looked pretty bad vs. Mayorga (even though he won easily), but that was at 154, do people really expect Margarito to walk through a guy with a beard like Mosley's? I don't see it. I'll be putting the majority of my cash on the Over and possibly some on Mosley by decision.

I must admit I was quite impressed with the way Mosley stayed in the fight with Cotto. But I did see that Mosley showed his age vs cotto and mayorga. Mosley has always had an iron chin and the only time I've only see him hurt was vs Vernon Forrest.

Margarito will not KO Mosley but he may very well score a TKO. The corner may see that Mosley cannot hurt Margarito and will stop the fight. At this age Mosley cannot handle someone like Margarito coming at him 100% of the fight. He will wear Mosley down and Mosley will be a Warrior but his dad or the ref will stop the fight.

 

 
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Posted: #4
yeah only thing im concerned about is the tko stoppage, no way margo ko's mosley...
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Kidcole35:

Am I the only one in shock to see that Over 10.5 is sitting at even money? This almost seems like stealing. I know Mosley looked pretty bad vs. Mayorga (even though he won easily), but that was at 154, do people really expect Margarito to walk through a guy with a beard like Mosley's? I don't see it. I'll be putting the majority of my cash on the Over and possibly some on Mosley by decision.


I don't think that line is that far off.  I wouldn't say that Marg will walk right through him, but if Margarito is in top shape he can break about anyone on the planet down with his pressure.
 
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Posted: #6
I think fight outcomes will be what I look at here.  Margarito ITD at around even money for a couple of units along with a small hedge on Mosley by decision at +600ish may be the way to go here especially if Mosley shoots up some EPO and turns back the clock.
 
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Posted: #7
I think people are getting way too high on Margo. People seem to forget the hundreds of clean hard shots Cotto landed. Williams too. The thing about the Cotto fight was that Cotto didn't really have the ability to not get walked into the ropes and let Margo get off. He did for a few rounds, then it just got ugly. Shane has the tools and experience to stop that. I could see Shane banking many early rounds and Margo's rally might be too little, too late. If it happens at all.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

I think people are getting way too high on Margo. People seem to forget the hundreds of clean hard shots Cotto landed. Williams too. The thing about the Cotto fight was that Cotto didn't really have the ability to not get walked into the ropes and let Margo get off. He did for a few rounds, then it just got ugly. Shane has the tools and experience to stop that. I could see Shane banking many early rounds and Margo's rally might be too little, too late. If it happens at all.


True to an extent, but the thing is Margarito walked through everyone of those shots and broke their will.  Not as much so with Williams, but I did have him taking 5 of the last 6 there and winning on my card 115-113.

I really think that Margo could walk through artillery fire and keep backing an Army up if he is motivated/conditioned enough.  I am reading that he is walking around now with a little bit of a bulge.  He shouldn't have any trouble getting it off though with the way he runs his camp.
 
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Posted: #9
Fullbrights you said it perfect my friend. The key to Margarito is his confidence and motivation. I use to train at the old LA boxing where he would hold camp for all of his fights. As long as he gets out of the first 2 rounds he will walk right through Mosley. He has a tendency to be sluggish and carry that on in the fight.ex Williams. Conditioning will not be an issue for Tony he trains everday like its his last. With that being said only way Mosley beats him is if he out boxes him and stays far away from Tony's heavy but sometimes slow hands.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

I think people are getting way too high on Margo. People seem to forget the hundreds of clean hard shots Cotto landed. Williams too. The thing about the Cotto fight was that Cotto didn't really have the ability to not get walked into the ropes and let Margo get off. He did for a few rounds, then it just got ugly. Shane has the tools and experience to stop that. I could see Shane banking many early rounds and Margo's rally might be too little, too late. If it happens at all.

Exactly, Margarito had had one hell of a night against Cotto and now people act as if he's unbeatable. Lets not forget Williams beat him in 8-4 fashion and didn't seem to be hurt at any point in the fight. So the "Margo can walk down anybody on the planet" stuff simply isn't true. For those who may not know, Brother Nazim Richardson (Trainer of Hopkins and Rock + Tiger Allen) will be training Shane in this fight. To think that he would stop the bout because of Mosley eating leather late in his first fight as Mosley's trainer seems off to me. Mosley will win most of the first 5 or 6 rounds (like all of Margo's opponents besides Froggy) and Margo will win the rounds he usually does from 6 on.
 
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Posted: #11
Another reason to really like the over in this fight:  Margarito is waaay out of shape right now.  At this moment, he's closer to 200 lbs. than 147.  He'll be at the DLH/Manny fight tonight, so take a look.  After killing himself to make weight, I don't think he'll have it in him to put Mosley away.  Prior to seeing this, I was considering the under. 
 
Steve Kim mentioned it in his Maxboxing column:  Speaking of Margarito, as he begins camp for the Mosley fight, he looks a lot more like the 'Tijuana Torta' than the 'Tijuana Tornado'.....
 
 
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Posted: #12
Glad to see my impulse wasn't way off here. I still need to watch Mosley - Mayorga, but the way that fight played out didn't surprise me all that much. Shane has been one-shotting people for years now, which is exactly what Mayorga can eat all day. It's fluid combination punching that he can't cope with. So the fight almost goes the distance, and everyone writes off Shane as shot.

Hell, I had Cotto over Mosley in the 8-4 to 7-5 range like most other sane observers, but even Shane was "walking down" Cotto pretty effectively late. I seriously doubt he's active enough to actually beat Margo these days, but he's still physically strong enough to make me think he can go the distance.

Should be interesting to see where this line goes.
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