Khan Under 9.5

$500 to win $625

Kid is cocky, he's a 6/1 favorite, expecting a highlight KO or Ref stoppage, he needs a good showing to get back in big fight conversations.

And i think he has a big chip on shoulder after "loss"

I wouldn't use the "must" or "need" handicapping technique which is when a NFL team has their last game and if they win (against a team with no playoff chance) they get in to the playoffs.
Now, motive is the key source in any analytical assessment, and everything revolves from it. The problem is people assume that the team with no playoffs that season has no or less motivation. Many teams play their heart out to stop a team needing that win, and also they have no pressure and play relaxed. Just because an entity (team, fighter, player, etc.) needs the victory, rarely adds any increase in positive results. Apparently this team has struggled and has been inconsistent, therefore producing the situation they are facing.

As for wagering: To invest equity in a situation that has shown to be inconsistent and using their desire to be successful as an integral part that will shape the outcome in a positive favor presents a heuristic that would embrace a large negative expected result (also presenting the –EV ratio).

Now if by analyzing not on what and how an entity must produce, but rather a similar type of category such as “regressions to the mean”, then this can be a very profitable scenario thus showing a high +EV.

 GL on your wagers!

wow. you be smart.....just kidding. That was a good read.

what a interseting perspective. Khan doesnt "need" i good showing like i stated, but i believe he will produce a good showing b/c he is a different tier fighter than Garcia, and very brash.........and on another note, if his cockyness or ego gets the better of him, maybe he could get chin checked..

But the truth is Khan will dominate a lesser oppenent

Under is the play