Marcos Rene Maidana vs Robert Guerrero

On August 27th boxing has an interesting match-up. We have two talented fighters both in their prime (both age 28) and this fight really places them in the lead spotlight. It's a very important fight for both fighters in establishing future big money paydays. Guerrero seems to be more the boxer with a good jab, stamina and good ring presence. Maidana brings the excitement factor with his punching power but it seems that against boxers that don't trade punches he often has difficulty creating openings to hurt opponents. Ortiz opened himself up trying to knockout Maidana and instead got KOd. His last fight against Morales in what many thought was an automatic knockout for Maidana turned into a fight to survive and win. That fight and exposure definitely had an impact on the betting odds for this fight. Guerrero is roughly a 2-1 favorite (which is an accurate line I feel). The fact that Guerrero is a southpaw should be of little problems as Maidana has done well against southpaws and those fights showed no difference than comapred to his fights verse orthodox opponents. I've yet to run the video and study but from what I've seen I would like to prop bet Guerrero to win via decision. Thus changing the odds from laying -200 to receving around even money or -125 at worst. I'm posting to get a feel for who forum advocates like or more so a fight breakdown and analysis. This way I'll have plenty of time watching video with any insight someone has posted that I've overlooked.

I like Maidana, he is the bigger, stronger fighter. He has been at 140 his entire career, Guerrero started at 126 and was there until 2008. Since he moved up in weight he has had 7 fights, only 2 ended in KO (journeymen opponents) As long as Maidana goes to the body, he should win.

Just my opinion, if you like Guerrero, you should play dec. there is no way he KO's Maidana.

cd2010: Originally I liked Maidana when I heard about the match-up. After considering the odds and both fighters past several bouts, I feel Maidana doesn't do enough to open a fighter up. Guerrero uses the jab effectively and Maidana really doesn't use one as a tool. I still have a lot of video footage to watch before I decide. I never cared for Guerrero and always liked Maidana but that's do more to action and ability to change a fight within seconds, and that scenario Guerrero doesn't have.

cd2010: Also, Katsidis I felt was much stronger than Guerrero going into the bout. Katsidis lost his first fight in a great battle against Casamayor, then his next fight was a close loss split decision. He then won four straight against decent fighter and an undefeated Mitchell. Then foolishly his camp allowed him to fight Marquez and he was broken down like Marquez does to most fighters and suffered a late knockout. Then fighting Guerrero was a monumental bout for him as he had yet to prove he could beat a good fighter. Guerrero dominated him and it seemed Guerrero was physically powering him as well winning a very decisive decision. Had Guerrero not fought Katsidis, I may have well been leaning towards Maidana, but Guerrero showed me stamina, boxing skills (which I felt he had) and power I didn't know he had and I was shown he could take on Katsidis's shots (Katsidis carries that one punch power many fighters don't have). Even though Katsidis has great physical talent but lacks boxing ability (LOL - ironic), I was impressed how easily Guerrero physically handled Katsidis. Maidana in a no suprise loss to Khan will probably have a similar type loss but it won't be as decisive (mainly because Khan tops Guerrero in almost every category). I may find something in the replaying the fights that shows me Maidana can expose a weakness Guerrero has but as of now it's hard to say.

Guerro wins this, probably easier than most think. Maidana is good at what he does, put pressure.

Guerro now that his wife is healthy is a different fighter, his heart is into boxing and has looked very good.

Maidana is over rated, basically his career was made off of beating Victor Ortiz who has him floored a few times.

Khan a guy with a suspect chin he couldn't get rid of and was being outclassed badly.

Then comes what looks like an easy fight against Erik Morales who is way beyond his prime, a prime Morales would have taken this guy apart.

Over the hill, over weight, much slower ... Morales STILL gave him ALL he could handle!

Maidana is a walking punching bag who relies on pressure to win.

Against a slick boxer with a great stinging left hand... and good movement ... he will look like garbage.

Why am I saying this, unlike Khan who wanted to show he "chin was good" and would trade... Robert Guerro doesn't mind stinking up the joint as long as he gets a "W".

He's satisfied with a  lopsided decision or KO he's very patient, probably why he isn't a fan favorite but still gets the "W" :)

                                        

Sorry for the typos, keyboard is all jammed up!

Good luck guys!
         

Nice writeups to both of you,  There is plenty of time to break this down  

Anyone else notice how much Guerrero's speed and power has declined as he's moved up in weight from 126lbs. He looked his slowest in his last fight at 135 and now he's moving up to 140 with no tuneup fight. Im sure Guerrero handles himself well in sparring against bigger men, but onve those 8 oz gloves are on with no headgear, versus an animal with an iron chin and power like Maidana things get questionable. It was obvious Maidana wasn't 100% vs Morales, but this time he's training in Puerto Rico with excellent Mexican trainer Rudy Perez. Maidana is gonna bring it. Those well schooled Ricans with their good legs are just the type of sparring partners Maidana needs. And of course Mexican trainer Rudy Perez will show Maidana how to handle himself on the inside. The fight is a tossup for me. I'd lean towards Guerrero but I wouldn't put money on it at -220. Im watching the fight for sure though. I've already asked off from work.

I'm sorry but Katsidis' boxing skills on the outside are extremely poor. Maidana isn't a good outside fighter either but unlike Katsidis, Maidana doesn't have to be in close to hurt you. Maidana is a BORN puncher. Also it seemed like Guerrero took some rounds off in the Katsidis fight and it was quite obvious the body shots were getting to Guerrero. If Geurrero can keep it a pure boxing match he beats Maidana easy. But we all know that's much easier said than done. No play for me even though I favor Guerrero.

DatMofoThere85: You are correct in your opening statement but I think you should take out a few words and have it read "I'm sorry but Katsidis' boxing skills are extremely poor". My point regarding Guerrero was that I wasn't sure of how he could handle a hard hitting constant pressure fighter and he exceeded my expectations. Moments in the fight Guerrero did slow down but I feel that was more him pacing himself than shots he absorbed. I only watched it live the one time but will watch it again.

robert wins this one and it won't be that hard for him either,  I actually like him to stop maidana sometime during the later rounds.

thesoulpurpose: You think Guerrero will dominate with his boxing ability and cause a late round stoppage due to Maidana absorbing punishment and fatigue causing Maidana unable to continue or do you feel Guerrero will connect often and effectively causing a stop from facial damage? Not that it would matter as your statement implies total dominance by Guerrero. Guerrero is currently around -190 and I don't see many prop bets available as you could get great odds betting one of several ways. You could bet Guerrero wins inside the distance and be +150 or if you could find round props and bet group rounds such as Guerrero wins by stoppage in rounds 10-12 and get some very nice odds. Look around and post back if you find a sportsbook offering similar props for that contest. Usually 5dimes is the best and offers the most options as well as the best odds. Unfortunately due to the prohibited ability for U.S. bettors to get funds online with restrictions from many sportsbooks has caused many sportsbooks to have gone downhill. Pinnacle seems to be a victim of this since they started prohibiting U.S. customers in August 2006 and then one month later PartyPoker followed along due to the SAFE Port Act 109-347 and Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006. That crushed online poker and brought me back to having to wager sports often and higher amounts and also more live poker. I enjoy live poker but when it was so easy to log online everyday and make a few thousand in several hours while still in bed (LOL).

I do think that robert will win by ko, but will bet him simply to win the fight, you say that the odds are currently -190, seems about right,  the reason I am so confident in a guerrero win is because their are 2 types of boxers,  some boxers punch while in retreat, that's how khan fought him, that only gives the bull more momentum coming forward and then their are guys like robert, who plant their feet, throw their shots and then move, catching the bull coming straight to them, robert will be landing solid shots all night long, then spinning off to the side, this fight will not be that close.

Guerrero, wide UD.  Way way too good a boxer.

I like Guerrero here. He looks really strong at 140.

Do you mean in sparring?

He has never had a pro fight at 140.

Maybe he is referring to weight the night of the fight. Against Katsidis the marked Guerrero at 146lbs, the scale said 152lbs but Guerrero claimed he weighed 150lbs.

Just found out via twitter that this fight is off.

Guerrero hurt his shoulder.

son ova bitch