Quote Originally Posted by PINNACLE:
FULLBRIGHTS,
You seem to be one of the most knowledgeable guys around here when it comes to boxing.....just curious of your thoughts on the following:
Cotto / Judah - see you have a .5 unit on Judah.......although I think Cotto wins that fight, I do think you're getting great value at that price. Cotto doesn't warrant being that prohibative of a favorite against an opponent as ring tested as Judah (which Judah will show up? is the big?). Couple that with the fact that Cotto hasn't really been tested ( w/ the exception of when Chop - Chop had him out on his feet a few years back). Nonetheless, I believe the interesting storyline here is how good is Cotto? Do we really know? He has undeniable talent, and is about as smooth offensively as I've seen. It just seems like his people have been so careful ( almost too careful with him) as it relates to the opponents they've choosen for him. I'm excited, as a fan, to finally see him fight someone that could really test him. And hey, who knows maybe HBO's spin on this will drive the price up/down...........although how could they portray Zab as anything other than the villain.
Meaning if U like Cotto he probably won't get any cheaper.
Hatton / JLC - IMO, on the surface it would appear to have potential to be fight of the year in terms of styles.
Do you think w/ the death of "Chico", Castillo comes in with a little more fire? ......... I do.......and I'm not sold on Hatton ( only his heart ) and don't know if he can beat Castillo if they were to actually box!?!? But I don't think that will happen, as it should be a brawl.........Your thoughts????
Enjoy reading your stuff
GL
Nice views, we are kind of on the same page.
Cotto/JudahYeah, that +350 was where 5dimes opened the fight. Right now it is at +275 which I still think is a very nice price on Judah. I could not lay the chalk here on Cotto with his chin issues, Zab being a southpaw (can you say Chop-Chop?), and him being in against the highest quality fighter he has faced; of course Zab has his own set of chin concerns. The only other play I would consider on the fight would by Judah by KO which I would think would be around +425 when it opens. For Zab to win this fight he is going to have to do so in the first 6 rounds. If Cotto's chin holds up and takes this into the later rounds than his body shots and workrate will wear Zab down.
Do you think it is any coincidence that Cotto's handlers have put him in against light hitting guys in his last 4 fights since the near debacles with Chop-Chop and Ricardo Torres? Zab is the first guy at 147 he has faced who can actually check his chin hard.
Hatton/JLC
I leaned toward Hatton when the fight was announced, but now I tend to be leaning toward the near +150 price on JLC. Still not decided though. I think the odds makers are looking at JLC's 1st fight at 140, his close win over Herman N., but I don't think that fight is indicative of his ability at this weight. I think he thought that fight was going to be a breeze and didn't really take it seriously. Both guys are getting good sparring in, I believe that Hatton's chief sparring partner is Steve Forbes and JLC's is A. "Terra" Garcia.
I will tell you one thing that worries me from a betting prospective as well as a fan's prospective is the fight coming to a premature halt because of a bad cut. Both guys have shown the tendency to cut in the past and with the fight being fought at close range we could see some "Butt" action or grazing hook that causes some damage. I think the giant Brit invasion over to the states for the fight could help the odds for those looking at betting JLC.