Pacquiao/Margarito Final Plays

Not sure what else can be said at this point, but I'll give an explanation of why I settled on the following plays.

1. Margarito Not Knocked Down or Out, +250, 7 units

Manny's one punch power is being given way too much credit considering the size and chin of his opponent. In fact, I'm not sure Margarito can be hurt by a single shot from Pacquiao. Margarito will be at least ten pounds heavier and he'll hold a 6 inch height advantage. It's asking a bit much to ask Manny to knock Margarito out given the pure size difference.

Also, I don't feel enough has been made about the trouble Manny is going to have finding a solid punching range. It's very difficult to get the leverage on hooks when you are punching up, as Manny will have to do. I think Manny will use the gameplan he had against DLH - stay outside, dart in with a straight left/quick combo. This isn't very conducive to Manny being able to land big shots often enough to get Margarito down or out.

2. Margarito wins in rounds 7-12, +820, 3 units.

This would have been my only play, but I thought the knockdown prop was a better wager to place the majority of my wagering dollars due to multiple scenarios in which you can win the prop.

I feel that all the pieces are there for Margarito to impose his size and style to bring down Pacman. It boils down to the fact that I believe Margarito will dictate the range and pace this fight is fought at. Margarito will close the distance even if it means eating one to get there. The consensus thinking that Manny will be the bigger puncher just isn't true. Margarito will be able to dominate the exchanges on the inside if he can get there. I'm betting he can. 

3. Pacman via decision, +300, 3.4 units.

If Manny is sharp and able to get off and get out of the way, expect a repeat of the Clottey fight. This also could be the case if Manny doesn't elect to exchange with Margarito and forces him to chase him around the ring, landing shots before Margo can touch him.
 
Good luck.

I don't think Pacquiao will have any trouble getting into range. Its going to be simple Margarito is going to come at him 100% of the time and Pacquiao will pick his angles and come in and out. I don't think Pacquiao will KO Margarito with one punch I don't even think Pacquiao hits harder than Mosley if we are basing this on one punch..but I do believe the ref or Margaritos corner will have to save him around the 9th round

I don't share your views on this fight.  I really think Manny stops him here.  Manny always has the speed advantage in every fight he's in, but this will be the biggest advantage he's ever had.  Manny won't miss with the left hand, IMO.  I don't think he'll knock him out, but I think we might see a late stoppage by the corner.

 

Any thoughts on the undercard?  I will be heavily invested in 'fight won't go the distance' with the Cuban (-165).

 

Good luck. 

While Pacquiao late round stoppage seems to be the consensus opinion, it isn't all that valid. In fact, considering the new evidence from the scales that Manny is only 144.5 pounds and a bit soft compared to his usual self, that theory should be ruled out entirely.

If Pacquiao is able to blow through Margarito despite giving up a legit 15 pounds and half a foot in height I'll be shocked. He isn't going to be aggressive. He has pretty much said that in a few quotes from different interviews. To just assume that he'll have landed enough big shots to get that type of accumulation stoppage doesn't make sense.

I've placed a wager on the under 9.5 at +120, for 5 units. Either Rigondeaux blows him out or he doesn't. Doesn't seem to be a need to look at it like the extra 7.5 minutes would make much of a difference, so I'll take the plus money prop.

pacquiao is -500 , he better win
i dont know why people discuss about this fight
pac men is -500 and worse
i have to risk how much? to win some good money.
i dont bet this match, thats it thats all.

Hard to see Pacman not winning this fight. Tony's style is made to order for him. Slower boxer, coming straight in at him, trying to overpower him with pressure. I can't get around the speed factor & the fact that Mararito stops too many punches with his face. The only question in my mind is .. How long it lasts? Late round stoppage by Pacman seems like the most likely outcome. The weight issue has been over blown IMO. Good Luck!

Adding:

Leader After 3 Rounds on Lederman's Card:

Margarito +1.5 points, -120, 6 units

Manny started off slow against Cotto, as Cotto was able to carry the first round easily with his jab. Thinking that Manny will drop an early round due the adjustment to the size, if nothing else.

Margarito is 165. Figured he'd put on 15. Not sure what Manny's unofficial weight is. If anybody knows, post it.

148

is this being streamed anywhere?

Adding: Margarito +400, 10 units.

 

Man, I wish I had the balls.

Wtf with fart stain Rigondeaux! When Rigondeaux started on the bike I thought he was setting traps cuz Cardoba was kind of being tight after getting dropped. Rigondeaux gets caught with both feet in the air...didn't think it hurt him. A little shocked how this one played out. Curious to read some post-fight press.

www.channelsurfing.net

 

 

im watching a fight there now, manny fight coming up soon

Very interesting to say the least. I was certain that Rigondeaux was going to finish him when he dropped him with that body shot. We need to see more of Rigondeaux to get a firm opinion, that's for sure. He might be a headgear hero for all we know.

If I didn't have such a great weekend last week, I wouldn't be tossing so much coin on this fight/Margarito. I'm confident in next weeks fight, so I can burn a nice sum of money tonight and give a couple buddies a freeroll on the fight.

Enjoy the fight buddy.

Thanks guys.

Rigondeaux cost me a couple units by not finishing, Margarito was close to stealing an early round, but didn't. They should have stopped this at some point, but didn't.

Could have been a lot better, could have been a worse. However, a profit of 3.7 units go into the piggy bank.

congrats walktheline.