This is an interesting clash of styles. Johnson is a rugged, relentless in-fighter. Froch is long and has an excellent jab. Froch wants and needs to keep things on the outside. Johnson is terrible on the outside and gets picked off there but is a mauler in the trenches. Froch has never fought an in-fighter in his career but has shown he's very uncomfortable when someone is in his chest.
Against light heavyweight types, those guys are better built to withstand Johnson's head down, bull rushes on the inside. Against super middleweights or guys who are leaner (Allan Green, Yusaf Mack, these guys arent as physically built to withstand Johnson's aggression like a Tarver, Dawson, Cloud, Woods is. Froch is a very lean 168 lb fighter. He is not going to like those body shots Johnson will hit him with.
The question is...will Froch be able to keep this on the outside exclusively and pick Johnson off on the way in, or will Johnson impose his will break Froch down? Also, while Froch has a good chin, he has been buzzed by lesser punchers (J Taylor, Dirrell). Carl likes to keep his left hand low. Johnson's best punch? The overhand right. Froch had better be on his P's and Q's here. He is the better fighter, technically, and younger but I worry that Johnson is a bad matchup for him stylistically.
That said, Johnson has slowed a tad and isnt quite the same guy who knocked Roy's head off 7 yrs ago. Johnson continues to fall short against the top shelf guys.
I like Froch to win a very close decision. He definitely wont knock out Johnson, who is as durable as they come and has only been stopped once - 14 yrs ago to a Prime Hopkins. Since then I dont believe he's even been buzzed in a fight. If anyone gets stopped here it would be Froch very, very late thru accumulation, but I think Froch holds him off - barely, and nicks it on the cards.
Over 9.5 rds prop is -320. Waiting for a Froch by DEC prop which I may hedge with a Johnson KO in 10-12 at big odds.
I dont believe Johnson wins a decision here...
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