Saturday (November 10, 2007) Picks

YTD: 37.71 units risked, +12.37 units

Victor Ortiz vs. Carlos Maussa
Under 9.5 (-160)
1.6 units

20-year-old junior welterweight Victor Ortiz has been tearing through his competition, winning 10 of his last 12 bouts by KO.  The only non-KO wins in this stretch came as a result of a first-round technical draw against Marvin Cordova (presumably, on an accidental headbutt), and an eight-round points sweep against the impossible-to-stop Alfred Kotey.  In Ortiz's last fight, he didn't stop Emmanuel Clottey until the end of the tenth round, but Clottey was in survival mode the entire contest, so the late stoppage was actually quite impressive.  Unlike Clottey, Colombian Carlos Maussa will come to fight, and that means that Ortiz will have plenty of opportunities to impose his will on the ex-champ.  Although Maussa has only been KO'd by top-flight competition (Ricky Hatton and Miguel Cotto), he hasn't fought since being outboxed by unheralded Manuel Garnica over a year ago.  At 36 years old, Maussa appears to be near the end of his career, and I suspect that Ortiz will send him into retirement before the middle of the tenth round.

David Haye vs. Jean-Marc Mormeck
Haye (-120)
1.2 units

Power-punching David Haye should be able to hurt aging chanmpion Jean-Marc Mormeck.  O'Neil Bell gave Mormeck all that he could handle in a rematch earlier this year, and Bell knocked out Mormeck a year before that.  Although Haye has had some stamina issues in the past, he appears to be in great shape for this fight and motivated to take the cruiserweight title from Mormeck before moving up to heavyweight.  Haye is just a naturally bigger fighter, as Mormeck began his career in the light-heavyweight (175 lbs) division.  Moreover, Mormeck no longer has the skills and stamina to keep Haye off of him, so I envision a relatively easy KO win for the 27-year-old British big man.

Shane Mosley vs. Miguel Cotto
Mosley +1.5 points handicap -- first 3 rounds (Lederman's scorecard) (-150)
1.5 units

I'm still considering a pick for the final outcome in this handicapping nightmare, but this prop is simply too good to pass up.  I'm not sure if the bookmakers realize that Cotto must sweep the first three rounds or score a knockdown in order for this prop to lose.  Most likely, Lederman's scorecard will be 29-28 at the end of three rounds, as I expect the style clash to result in a bit of a feeling-out process at the beginning of the match.  Also, Cotto relies on pressure, while Mosley uses slick boxing skills.  That should result in Mosley winning the early rounds, while Cotto begins to take later rounds once his pressure begins to take a toll on Mosley.  Mosley will likely be ahead on Lederman's card at the end of three rounds, but even if he's not, I'd be shocked if he's behind by two or more points.

Thanks, Bigeiii.  Good luck tonight!

I kinda agry on the Cruiser points you make, though JMM can still mash. Power is the last thing to leave a figher (ask: Mr. cheessamwich grill pimp himself). So JMM might seize Haye at some point, but if Haye can sustain a nice work volume, he might get JMM out somewhere between say 5 & 9. So I took that LOW.

 

GLA!

bigeiii

Haye took JMM out in the 7th. LOW hits. Nice Haye call A2C.

bigeiii

David Haye vs. Jean-Marc Mormeck
Haye (-120)
+1 unit 

WowZa!!!

The House has reversed it's line, on the SSM Cotto Prop I picked above. May have been a typo by the House, (I got my side +175), the same side is now -175. Or maybe the line got swamped on the side I originally played?!? Either way, I'm unsure this is honored if it actually does win. Also curious to see I'm (nearly) the Cotto lone-wolf here on Covers.com. Tough to type that's a great sign in my favor.


bigeiii

Victor Ortiz vs. Carlos Maussa
Under 9.5 (-160)
+1 unit 

Mosley +135
1 unit

Before tonight, Cotto has never faced a bigger opponent who also happens to be a boxing technician.  Although I have immense respect for Cotto's pressure tactics, he's shown vulnerability against fighters in a lesser class than Mosley.  You just can't pass up dog odds on a superstar like Mosley against a fighter who has yet to fully prove himself.  I may drop more on this fight later if the odds shift more towards Cotto.

EPIC Ortiz LOW A2C!!!

D if there are not some enemies of the house in this Covers.com Boxing Fourm.


bigeiii

Thanks, Bigeiii!  Hoping that Mosley can help bring the house down a bit further...

Shane Mosley vs. Miguel Cotto
Mosley +1.5 points handicap -- first 3 rounds (Lederman's scorecard) (-150)
+1 unit 

Mosley +135
- 1 unit

Message to Miguel Cotto:  You pussed out.  You ran like a girl.

YTD: +14.37 units

Both whacky, AND I do mean whacky; Props win!!!

One-177, the other +175.

I like that.
: )

bigeiii

BTW: my +175 Prop was graded a winner! 1 unit won, 1 unit pending on Al.Dim. SU.


bigeiii

 

Agreed, Mosley won that fight.  NO WAY Cotto wins 116-113. He was hurt and ran for the last four rounds!