Saturday Picks (9/29/07)

YTD: 10 plays, +5.13 units

Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik
Pavlik (+115)
5 units

In a throwback battle of two dangerous unbeaten middleweights, champion Jermain "Bad Intentions" Taylor takes on Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik this Saturday night in Atlantic City.  For many boxing fans, this is the equivalent of a perfect storm.  On paper, the two fighters seem like they're custom-made for each other.  After Pavlik's 7th-round knockout of Edison Miranda this past May, HBO commentator Larry Merchant emphatically stated "now we have a build up to a fight with Taylor that could be huge, huge, huge!"  As much as it pains me to say that Larry was correct, he was.  This is as important of a fight as we've had in 2007.

Taylor, 27(17)-0-1, will be defending his middleweight title for the fifth time. Despite his status, it's not a exaggeration to say that Taylor's last few performances have been lackluster.  That said, he has definitely fought bigger-name opponents than Pavlik.  But there's more to the story than marquee names like Winky Wright, Bernard Hopkins and Kassim Ouma.  In his last 5 fights, Taylor has four wins and one draw.  All of the wins came by way of decision, with two of them being split decisions. Taylor hasn't knocked anyone out since 2005 when he manhandled the previously unbeaten Haitian Daniel Edouard in three quick rounds.  One has to wonder if he still has the killer instinct that originally made him a champion.

In his last fight, the 6'1" Taylor "earned" an unimpressive split decision victory over the 5'9" Cory Spinks.  One judge scored the bout 117-111 in favor of Spinks, while the other two sided with Taylor, scoring the fight 117-111 and 115-113.  "Bad Intentions" averaged just 27 punches per round against Spinks, leading to questions about his stamina and drive.  Spinks, by contrast, threw an average of 45 punches per round.

A slow work rate isn't likely to get the job done against Pavlik, 31(28) - 0,  who throws an average of 100 punches per round.  Boxing writer Don Steinberg recently coined a formula called the Tyson Index, which is essentially a knockout percentage.  The stat measures the percentage of scheduled rounds that a boxer actually fights, using only his last ten bouts.  A low score means that the guy's been scoring early knockouts.   Out of the pool of currently ranked boxers, Pavlik ranks # 6 on the index with a score of 49, behind exciting fighters like Edwin Valero, Michael Katsidis, David Haye, Rey Bautista and Wladimir Klitschko.  On the other hand, Taylor's current Tyson index score stands at 79, meaning that recently he's gone the distance more often than not.

Taylor's trainer, the legendary Manny Steward, has been blasting Pavlik during the past month for not having faced the same level of competition that "Bad Intentions" has been up against. That may be true, but it also unfairly discounts the punishment that Pavlik administered to opponents like Edison Miranda, Jose Luis Zertuche, and Bronco Mckart.  Before facing the "Ghost," none of the three had lost via KO, as all of their losses had come as a result of decisions.  (Mckart did lose to Winky Wright inside the distance, but that was a result of a disqualification for excessive low-blows).

Pavlik is a straight-forward fighter who thrives on backing his opponents up.  That formula worked against Miranda and it should work against Taylor.  Pavlik's power should be the difference maker in Saturday night's fight, as he's capable of landing hard body shots, hooks, and murderous uppercuts.  Once he senses that his opponents are in trouble, he is unrelenting and focused.  Defensively, Pavlik can absorb shots and doesn't allow himself to get hit often.  Although Taylor is the speedier fighter, his low punch volume will likely prove to be his undoing.  Pavlik's trainer, Jack Loew, recently said: "Kelly gets stronger, and the longer that it goes, the worse for Taylor.  I can see us getting him out by five rounds."  I agree, although it might be in 9 or 10 rounds instead of five.

Luis Alberto Perez vs. Joseph Agbeko
Agbeko (+145)
1 unit

This is a very interesting matchup, as the 27-year-old Agbeko has recently returned from a 2.5 year layoff to score two fourth-round KOs in 2007, albeit against subpar competition.  Prior to his hiatus, Agbeko lost a majority decision to the tough (and still undefeated) Wladimir Sidorenko.  I didn't see that fight, but according to most accounts, Agbeko was robbed by the judges.  So, Agbeko really should still be undefeated.  Agbeko is a natural bantamweight (118 pounds), while Perez fought at super flyweight for much of his career before moving up in weight in his last bout against Genaro Garcia.  Perez pummeled Garcia for the TKO win in 7 rounds.  Some fans point to this bout as legitimizing Perez as a bantamweight champ, but I have my doubts based on the fact that Garcia was pretty faded at the time.  In Garcia's prior bout against Hozumi Hasegawa, he was knocked down twice despite the fact that Hasegawa is not known for his power (7 KOs in 24 matches).   Moreover, Perez was lucky to get the split decision nod against light-hitting Dimitri Kirilov, and he's eked out split decisions against two ordinary boxers (Felix Machado and Edison Torres).  Perez will definitely come to fight, but I like the fresher, younger Agbeko to eventually impose his will on the slightly smaller man.