Saturday Picks (9/29/07)

YTD: 10 plays, +5.13 units

Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik
Pavlik (+115)
5 units

In a throwback battle of two dangerous unbeaten middleweights, champion Jermain "Bad Intentions" Taylor takes on Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik this Saturday night in Atlantic City.  For many boxing fans, this is the equivalent of a perfect storm.  On paper, the two fighters seem like they're custom-made for each other.  After Pavlik's 7th-round knockout of Edison Miranda this past May, HBO commentator Larry Merchant emphatically stated "now we have a build up to a fight with Taylor that could be huge, huge, huge!"  As much as it pains me to say that Larry was correct, he was.  This is as important of a fight as we've had in 2007.

Taylor, 27(17)-0-1, will be defending his middleweight title for the fifth time. Despite his status, it's not a exaggeration to say that Taylor's last few performances have been lackluster.  That said, he has definitely fought bigger-name opponents than Pavlik.  But there's more to the story than marquee names like Winky Wright, Bernard Hopkins and Kassim Ouma.  In his last 5 fights, Taylor has four wins and one draw.  All of the wins came by way of decision, with two of them being split decisions. Taylor hasn't knocked anyone out since 2005 when he manhandled the previously unbeaten Haitian Daniel Edouard in three quick rounds.  One has to wonder if he still has the killer instinct that originally made him a champion.

In his last fight, the 6'1" Taylor "earned" an unimpressive split decision victory over the 5'9" Cory Spinks.  One judge scored the bout 117-111 in favor of Spinks, while the other two sided with Taylor, scoring the fight 117-111 and 115-113.  "Bad Intentions" averaged just 27 punches per round against Spinks, leading to questions about his stamina and drive.  Spinks, by contrast, threw an average of 45 punches per round.

A slow work rate isn't likely to get the job done against Pavlik, 31(28) - 0,  who throws an average of 100 punches per round.  Boxing writer Don Steinberg recently coined a formula called the Tyson Index, which is essentially a knockout percentage.  The stat measures the percentage of scheduled rounds that a boxer actually fights, using only his last ten bouts.  A low score means that the guy's been scoring early knockouts.   Out of the pool of currently ranked boxers, Pavlik ranks # 6 on the index with a score of 49, behind exciting fighters like Edwin Valero, Michael Katsidis, David Haye, Rey Bautista and Wladimir Klitschko.  On the other hand, Taylor's current Tyson index score stands at 79, meaning that recently he's gone the distance more often than not.

Taylor's trainer, the legendary Manny Steward, has been blasting Pavlik during the past month for not having faced the same level of competition that "Bad Intentions" has been up against. That may be true, but it also unfairly discounts the punishment that Pavlik administered to opponents like Edison Miranda, Jose Luis Zertuche, and Bronco Mckart.  Before facing the "Ghost," none of the three had lost via KO, as all of their losses had come as a result of decisions.  (Mckart did lose to Winky Wright inside the distance, but that was a result of a disqualification for excessive low-blows).

Pavlik is a straight-forward fighter who thrives on backing his opponents up.  That formula worked against Miranda and it should work against Taylor.  Pavlik's power should be the difference maker in Saturday night's fight, as he's capable of landing hard body shots, hooks, and murderous uppercuts.  Once he senses that his opponents are in trouble, he is unrelenting and focused.  Defensively, Pavlik can absorb shots and doesn't allow himself to get hit often.  Although Taylor is the speedier fighter, his low punch volume will likely prove to be his undoing.  Pavlik's trainer, Jack Loew, recently said: "Kelly gets stronger, and the longer that it goes, the worse for Taylor.  I can see us getting him out by five rounds."  I agree, although it might be in 9 or 10 rounds instead of five.

Luis Alberto Perez vs. Joseph Agbeko
Agbeko (+145)
1 unit

This is a very interesting matchup, as the 27-year-old Agbeko has recently returned from a 2.5 year layoff to score two fourth-round KOs in 2007, albeit against subpar competition.  Prior to his hiatus, Agbeko lost a majority decision to the tough (and still undefeated) Wladimir Sidorenko.  I didn't see that fight, but according to most accounts, Agbeko was robbed by the judges.  So, Agbeko really should still be undefeated.  Agbeko is a natural bantamweight (118 pounds), while Perez fought at super flyweight for much of his career before moving up in weight in his last bout against Genaro Garcia.  Perez pummeled Garcia for the TKO win in 7 rounds.  Some fans point to this bout as legitimizing Perez as a bantamweight champ, but I have my doubts based on the fact that Garcia was pretty faded at the time.  In Garcia's prior bout against Hozumi Hasegawa, he was knocked down twice despite the fact that Hasegawa is not known for his power (7 KOs in 24 matches).   Moreover, Perez was lucky to get the split decision nod against light-hitting Dimitri Kirilov, and he's eked out split decisions against two ordinary boxers (Felix Machado and Edison Torres).  Perez will definitely come to fight, but I like the fresher, younger Agbeko to eventually impose his will on the slightly smaller man.

Andre Berto vs. David Estrada
Fight Won't Go Distance (+140)
1 unit

Even though Berto disappointed me in his last fight when he couldn't KO Cosme Rivera, the young phenom has tremendous power as evidenced by 16 KOs in 19 bouts.  That includes a stretch of 14 straight stoppages, which was snapped when he won a unanimous decision over Rivera.  Estrada's a tough customer, but I'm not sure how much he has left after taking brutal shots in his fight against Kermit Cintron last year.  Since that fight, which happened at 147 lbs, Estrada's had three relatively easy fights, and he's weighed over 150 lbs in each contest.  Coming back down in weight could weaken Estrada, and that's not good against a big hitter like Berto.  I'm playing the distance prop because my book is offering the Berto KO prop at +150, which is very close to the +140 on the distance prop.  Since there are still some questions about Berto's chin, I think this is the safer play.  But if you can get the Berto KO prop at +200 or above, that's the way to go.

Luis Alberto Perez vs. Joseph Agbeko
Agbeko (+145)
1 unit  

Andre Berto vs. David Estrada
Fight Won't Go Distance (+140)
+1.4 units

(and correction to last post: it was a 1.45 units win on Agbeko).

Jermain Taylor vs. Kelly Pavlik
Pavlik (+115)
+5.75 units

Today: +8.6 units
Overall: 13 plays, +13.73 units

Very nice week A2C. 

I think all Pavlik backers should send Steve Smoger a thank you card. This is a perfect example for commissions to show referees an example that when a fighter is down and hurt early in a fight you have to give him a chance to survive if he is on his feet.  I know that my arch enemy Jorge Alonso would have pulled the trigger within 10 seconds after Pavlik got up.

I agree, Fullbrights.  A bad ref could've fucked that play and Pavlik's record.  Pavlik made the mistake of sticking his chin out at Taylor after getting whacked with five hard blows.  It was like Pavlik was trying to taunt him, and he got hit right as he did it.  But that guy's chin is definitely solid if he could survive that, and he showed a ton of heart getting out of the round.  It'll end up being a good lesson for him, as I'm sure he'll think twice before trying that taunting shit again.  A great night for Pavlik.  Fight of the year in my opinion.

And just to give my two cents on Pavlik's next opponent, I want him to take on Kessler, who's going to handle Calzaghe on Nov. 3.  We don't need another Pavlik-Taylor, as it would've been over even earlier if Pavlik hadn't acted stupid in round 2.  Pavlik-Kessler will be one of the best matches in a long time.

I don't think that Pavlik should move up in weight, but instead really create a legacy at 160 for now.  I think that he can make the weight safely for a couple more years.  I was talking to one of my friends who was over here tonight and we both said the same thing for the matchup we would like to see next for Pavlik; Arthur Abraham.  I think that if there is a rematch with Taylor we see the same thing that we saw tonight minus the 2nd round.

You're right.  I forgot about Abraham.  Have Pavlik dominate the middleweight division while Kessler takes over at 168.  And then have a showdown down the road.