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Smart Bets Saturday March 22

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Prospect
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Posts: 193
Posted: #1
Hi, guys this is my first Smart Bets post on this forum,which you must follow to make money.
 
 
Katsidis vs Casamayor
 
Im not gonna bet on the moneyline here,because there are a lot of risk with both guys.Casamayor is old now and the way he fought last time wasnt the best of him .This is a clear sign that Casamayors career will not last a lot.Hes facing a strong young fighter on Katsidis that likes to put pressure and throw lots of punches with good power.But his defense is bad and tends to cut easily.I never recommend betting against a young opponent, thats why this fight is very hard to handicap.But im pretty sure this fight will go the distance.
 
I dont see a ko or tko here.Casamayor doesnt have the power to hurt Katsidis, and his work rate is not the same anymore,he will be boxing from the outside all night long and Katsidis will be trying to ko Casamayor and try to land a big shot on him but Casamayor experience will be the edge to survive 12 rounds.Guys this will not be a fight like graham fight,and Casamayor knows he needs to outbox Katsidis to win today.
 
Katsidis-Casamayor over 10.5    2 units(-185 )  to win 1.15 units
Casamayor by desicion    1 unit (+348)  to win 3.48 units
Katsidis by desicion  1 unit (+165) to win 1.65 units
 
Good luck tonight,and lets make money!!
 
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Posts: 4377
Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by albo2006:

Hi, guys this is my first Smart Bets post on this forum,which you must follow to make money.
 
 
Katsidis vs Casamayor
 
Im not gonna bet on the moneyline here,because there are a lot of risk with both guys.Casamayor is old now and the way he fought last time wasnt the best of him .This is a clear sign that Casamayors career will not last a lot.Hes facing a strong young fighter on Katsidis that likes to put pressure and throw lots of punches with good power.But his defense is bad and tends to cut easily.I never recommend betting against a young opponent, thats why this fight is very hard to handicap.But im pretty sure this fight will go the distance.
 
I dont see a ko or tko here.Casamayor doesnt have the power to hurt Katsidis, and his work rate is not the same anymore,he will be boxing from the outside all night long and Katsidis will be trying to ko Casamayor and try to land a big shot on him but Casamayor experience will be the edge to survive 12 rounds.Guys this will not be a fight like graham fight,and Casamayor knows he needs to outbox Katsidis to win today.
 
Katsidis-Casamayor over 10.5    2 units(-185 )  to win 1.15 units
Casamayor by desicion    1 unit (+348)  to win 3.48 units
Katsidis by desicion  1 unit (+165) to win 1.65 units
 
Good luck tonight,and lets make money!!




I definitely wouldn't complain with the result in bold.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Risky at over (-185): Katsidis has been cut a lot. Casamayor is a dirty fighter and you will see clinches and headbutts, also due to Casamayor's akward southpaw style with Katsidis charging forward. There are the conditions for cuts and swelling for Katsidis the longer it goes.
 
The-Ionizer
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Thanks Fullbrights, there,s a good chance that this ends in a draw,hmmm tempting
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by The-Ionizer:

Risky at over (-185): Katsidis has been cut a lot. Casamayor is a dirty fighter and you will see clinches and headbutts, also due to Casamayor's akward southpaw style with Katsidis charging forward. There are the conditions for cuts and swelling for Katsidis the longer it goes.
 
The-Ionizer

i think he could get cut late in the fight or in the mid rounds,and this is the type of fight that will be close and the ref and doctor wont stop unless its a brutal huge cut. 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
That's hard to say. Casamayor is dirty, and if at anytime in the fight where he feels like he isn't effective and might absorb punishment, don't rule out a low blow. He's never been knocked out, and I don't think he wants to be. I just think it's to much to risk at that price. Anyways, Good Luck!
 
The-Ionizer
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Well, anything can happend, but not this time, im pretty sure.Looks like koboxingpicks.com has the draw, they say the draw will win today.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
There was cuts, swelling, and low blows as I stated. Also, knockdowns. The over was simply too high with all those variables.
 
The-Ionizer
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Oh well,it was close lol. I feel i had the right picks.The cuts werent a factor in the fight.What a shot.It was a great fight.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
It was a great fight, but you have to include all those possibilities when paying -185 for an over. Just remember, sometimes you don't even need a TKO, or KO. Stoppages and DQ's can happen for other reason besides injuries, such as Oliver McCall and "No Más".
 
The-Ionizer
 
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Posted: #11
Bad night, but it happens.

Keep posting them. 

Just don't post anymore breakdowns of contender fighters being tough and fighting with their heart.  JK.
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 387
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

Bad night, but it happens.

Keep posting them. 

Just don't post anymore breakdowns of contender fighters being tough and fighting with their heart.  JK.



Albo's already crafting his Bundrage +500 write-up.


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