Posted:
#1
Not much time for write-ups since I'm trying to catch the full undercard tonight at the Hard Rock. Largest play is AA, smallest is RM.
Abraham -185 and -4.5 (-115).
I like the better overall boxer and I am very concerned about Miranda's diminished state post Pavlik. I also think the books have tipped their hand with this line holding steadily near 2-1. I might have thought harder about it if they had opened closer to even money.
Marquez by decision (+750)
Long shot in the dark here. I was impressed by RM's performance against McKart, and despite Lorenzo's great amateur pedigree, I'm not convinced he's worthy of heavy chalk yet. Kelly's team certainly didn't seem to think he was a severe threat in trying to line up a fight.
Arreola to win ITD (-125)
I'm really upset with myself for not grabbing the Arreola side early in the week at close to even money. He sits at almost 3-1 favored now, and I feel almost like a dope for playing this prop, but I still see value on the KO. If we go to the cards, they'll probably have to cook the books for him to win, so maybe this is essentially the same play.
Abraham -185 and -4.5 (-115).
I like the better overall boxer and I am very concerned about Miranda's diminished state post Pavlik. I also think the books have tipped their hand with this line holding steadily near 2-1. I might have thought harder about it if they had opened closer to even money.
Marquez by decision (+750)
Long shot in the dark here. I was impressed by RM's performance against McKart, and despite Lorenzo's great amateur pedigree, I'm not convinced he's worthy of heavy chalk yet. Kelly's team certainly didn't seem to think he was a severe threat in trying to line up a fight.
Arreola to win ITD (-125)
I'm really upset with myself for not grabbing the Arreola side early in the week at close to even money. He sits at almost 3-1 favored now, and I feel almost like a dope for playing this prop, but I still see value on the KO. If we go to the cards, they'll probably have to cook the books for him to win, so maybe this is essentially the same play.
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