There was a KO in the NFL:Totals went Over 12-3 (80%)

There was a good reason to bet the board and play all the Overs opening day. Whenever you have a lock-out or anything that stops the players from practicing (including reduced pre-season) together to gain chemistry most people assume it would be even because offense isn't in sync, which the offense might struggle. The major factor is not the quantity of mistakes but the severity. Typically when offense makes a mistake they lose a few yards or drop a pass, but when defense makes a mistake it's often a blown coverage or a missed tackle which leads to points or a large gain in yards.

Handicapping is an art and a science (objective and subjective) and that's why simple systems don't work. The example I showed is not a system, but an opportunity to take advantage of for +EV. ALSO: In College Football there are a few traps to avoid such as betting Under when the point spread is 3 or less (not always, but use caution) because if it is a close game the way college does OT produces many points.

Another caution for both college & pro would be betting a big favorite when the under is lower than the yearly average total so far (or the previous year; as it was 42 for NFL in 2010). Even if you have favorite that runs the ball effectively and often and their defense is in the top 5 best for points allowed it is still to much risk. Hypothetical example would be from NFL 2008 season in which the Ravens (best defense but offense is low in scoring) against Lions (offense & defense are at the bottom of the league). Playing in Baltimore the line is Ravens (-14) vs Lions (33 total) and you bet Ravens and Under. Say Detroit gets a fluke TD by fumble recovery (or anyway as it is irrelevant). Now if Detroit makes just 1 FG, they now have 10 points and you can’t win both the favorite and the under.

The examples I showed are more for the “NEWBIES” (beginners) as a few fundamental guidelines. This doesn’t mean you won’t handicap a game where it is conflicting with the examples I showed you on what “NOT TO DO”, but if you go against the basic guidelines more than a few times you will be fighting an uphill battle from the start and that leads to one thing… losing! Remember handicapping is like anything else in life in the fact that knowing what not to do is just as valuable as knowing what to do, or you could switch it and say "Dropping Bad Habits = Beginning Good Habits".

Again this week you had totals with 9 Overs, 5 Unders and a Push (or dependent on your line a win or loss). Probably one more week betting Overs on totals will still show a nice profit.

This week: 9-5-1 Overs in the totals

esplanade: No longer avid NFL fan & betting it is the toughesr to beat. I brought up a few theories to an NFL handicapper and he assessed what I stated. My friend & biz partner made the game selects & units. I thought my plays were posted 1hr before kickoff, plenty time for bettors. I didn't have confidence enough to boast a theory and if failed costed players money.

Under 45 Washington vs Arizona (7 Units) +7
NYJ -8.5 (5 Units) +5
Carolina +11 (7 Units) +7
Under 42 (buy 1/2 pt) Oakland vs Buffalo (10 Units) -12
Chicago +200 (5 Units) -5
2 Team Parlay: Chicago +200 & Minnesota +100 (2.5 Units) -2.5
2 Team Parlay: Chicago +200 & Under 42 (buy 1/2 pt) Oakland vs Buffalo (3.5 Units) -3.5
2 Team Parlay: Carolina +11 & Minnesota +100 (3 Units) -3
2 Team Parlay: Chicago +200 & Carolina +11 (3 Units) -3
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Over 41 Dallas vs San Francisco (9 Units) +9
Over 53 San Diego vs New England (9 Units) +9
Over 40.5 Cincinnati vs Denver (9) -9.9
Over 46 Houston vs Miami (9) 0
Dallas -3 (12 Units) 0
New England -6.5 (8 Units) +8
2 Team Parlay: Dallas -3 & Over 41 Dallas (5 Units) +5
3 Team Parlay:  Over 40.5 Cincinnati & Over 53 NE & Over 46 Houston (3 Units) -3
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Straight Wagers: 6-3-2   +18.1 Units (67%)
Other Wager Types:   -10 Units
Total: +8.1 Units
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esplanade: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101134797

I did post week 2 prior to the games in the NFL section.

Marky_Mark13: I posted in NFL forum but I didn't think adding some NFL plays without any long threads wouldn't be a major problem overall. The main reason: Several friends asked me to post what I had on the NFL on the boxing section because it would be easy to find. I don't consider NFL long-term beatable, but with the lockout, it made some great hidden values that will be gone in weeks. The Overs was one example for the first 2-3 weeks was great as team Defenses hadn't adjusted enough and the NFL had all adopted west coast styles. On Offense an over-thrown pass that could have been a TD costs the Offense a down, where a blown coverage on Defense usually costs a TD... big difference. Now, if the lockout was a decade or more ago, I would have been betting Unders, why...?...because teams didn't have as many play scores and needed several weeks to get offensive chemistry while the defense was standard and use to seeing the same formations for 20 years.