This Weekend

+5.35 units

Mares/Arias Under 5.5 (-145) 1.45 units to win 1

I don't know a thing about Arias, just that he is a late replacement. I've seen enough of Mares to know that an obscure late replacement, unless this guy is a diamond in the rough, isn't reaching the middle rounds.

Pacquiao wins by decision (+248) 1 unit to win 2.48 units
Pacquiao/Diaz Over 9.5 rounds (-140) 2.8 units to win 2
Diaz by decision (+530) .2 units to win 1.06

I don't necessarily think Diaz is a world class guy or is on the level of a Juan Manuel Marquez. That said, at 135, I think his chin may actually be better than JMM, who Pacman was unable to finish off. I think Diaz can make a few rounds ugly and win them. I think Pacquiao will win more rounds and could definitely see him dropping Diaz at some point. These bets cover a late corner or referee and hedge a Diaz win, but I see Pacquio impressively winning a competitive decison over the rugged Diaz.

Francisco Lorenzo (+600) over Soto .5 units to win 3

I think there is value in this play. Soto has some wear on the tires at this point and looked awful against Guzman. Lorenzo has wear on his tires as well, to be sure, but is on a winning streak of late, has some quality W's on the ledger over Cruz and Rosales and I think he can be competitive in this spot. Worth a 6-1 gamble.

Barrett/Fields over 6.5 (+110) 2 units to win 2.2

Sure, Fields is going to uncork a boatload of jabs, but I don't think that is going to be near enough to stop a solid veteran like Monte. This isn't Roderick Willis or Chris Koval here. I can only think that the oddsmakers are putting stock into the TKOBY Cliff Couser. If you throw that out, Barrett has been deep with Valuev and Rahman recently. I see no reason he can't do that against Tye Fields. Also, Barrett has looked to be in great shape in his last two, so I'd doubt he would be here just for a paycheck. I actually like him to win this fight and will probably get down on that tomorrow.

Big weekend of action. Good luck to everyone.

Very nice price on Diaz. I'm on Manny dec as well @ +250.
I also am on Fields -115. Obviously an error. If it isn't canceled by tomorrow, I'll likely hedge with Monte +240 or so.

Adding

Barrett (+245) .5 units to win 1.2

-3.25 units for the weekend.

And it should have been more. I was off pretty much across the board here. I feel like I accurately capped Diaz's toughness but not his skill and he was still only 2 minutes from cashing that over. No bones here as the ref/corner gave him more than ample opportunity.

I bungled the Barrett fight. I knew, just like many others did, that he was going to expose Fields. I was too enamored when I saw the opening O/U. I jumped on it. I woke up today, planning to bet Barrett at +400ish ITD and for some reason no props were set. I didn't want to get double burned big and small bet Barrett and he dominated the big goof. Just poor betting on my part.

I lucked myself into the 3 units on Lorenzo to even make it respectable. I don't need to describe how absurd it was.

Still winning for the year but its largely on the merit of one really good weekend with the Mora over and countless disappointing ones.

Mochuelo Torres will get it done next week.

+ 2.1 units posted plays.