Weekend Picks (10/31-11/1)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +10.285 units

I'm back after a bit of a timeout for the baseball playoffs.  Let me explain, as I'm not that big of a baseball fan normally.  In February, I was in Vegas for Pavlik-Taylor II, and I placed a wager on the Rays to win the World Series at 200-1, so most of my heart steadily became more involved in that play as October progressed.  Now, I can go off on that BS for about 30 minutes, but I'll spare the diatribe since this is a boxing forum.  Looks like I was lucky to miss out on the Kelly Pavlik debacle, although I don't know if I would've played that since I couldn't decide between the decision and the KO.  Pavlik by himself seemed unplayable.  I did make an unposted play on Andrade last Friday, and I have never been so angry at the result of a boxing match. That, combined with the Rays crap, put me in such a sour mood that I thought I'd never return to a sports betting forum again.

One final word on Andrade, as I've seen some people write that the ref's extra long count didn't matter since Bute was up at the count of 10.  That's totally wrong.  A fighter cannot be saved by the bell, so the question following a knockdown at the end of the fight, isn't whether he was on his feet at the count of 10.  Instead, it's whether you were "up" at the count of ten. Being "up" means that you're in condition to continue fighting.  Leaning on the ropes is not being "up" despite the fact that Bute may have been vertical as opposed to horizontal.  Everyone would agree that you can be "out on your feet" despite the fact that you're technically standing.  Strangely, it seems as though some people in the boxing world (Graham Houston included) are trying to claim that even if Bute was out on his feet at the count of 10, he could be deemed to have beaten the count.  I completely disagree on that point, as beating a count means that you get up in condition to continue before the ref hits the 10 count.  Congrats to FB, and anyone else who won some money off Bute winning the decision, but we all know who won that fight.  Andrade's a badass, and it will always be dangerous to bet against him.

Now for the plays...

Mijares vs. Darchinyan
Darchinyan +260 (SB)
2 units

I love this play.  Darchinyan appears to be back on top of his game after his demolition of Dimitri Kirilov in August.  Some people claim that Darchinyan's a crude banger who'll get outboxed by a slicker sort such as Mijares.  Sure, Nonito Donaire countered a brawling Darchinyan for the upset of the year in 2007 (well, an upset in most people's minds), but Darchinyan came into that fight overconfident due to his streak of 10 straight inside-the-distance finishes.  Now that the air of invincibility is gone, Darchinyan concentrates more on his tactics in the ring.  He knows that he can hurt opponents if he puts himself into position to do so, and the Donaire lesson taught him that smart boxing is the key to putting himself in this position, as opposed to forcing the KO from the beginning of the fight.  Although Mijares is a master boxer, his opponents have caught up to him a bit lately, with close fights against Jose Navarro and Alexander Munoz.  Sure, the Navarro fight should've been a UD, but each round was hotly contested by the challenger, whose punches found Mijares more often than I'd anticipated.  I think that Mijares still gets a lot of credit for his outclassing of Arce in March 2007, but Arce seemed ill-prepared to face a quality boxer that night, as his straight-forward tactics played right into Mijares' game.  Darchinyan isn't going to fall into the same trap, as I expect him to box a careful fight in the early rounds, and once he figures out the holes in Mijares' defense, he'll start to land his power punches in the last half of the fight.  Mijares doesn't have the sturdiest chin in the world, so I'm actually expecting a late KO for Darchinyan, and I may put a little bit on that prop once it comes out, if the price is right (+700 or higher).

A2C nice to see you back

sorry about the damn rays....wish they had pulled it off for you bro....

what's your take on Sturm-Sylvester?

I sort of fancy Sylvester's chances....

I also like Chavez and Dirrell this weekend, but the prices are ridiculous....i thought the line for Chavez would be a lot closer....

Hi Ghost, I'm thinking that Sylvester's a little overrated due to his win over an aging Castillejo.  Sylvester's an ordinary, straight-ahead type fighter, and I think that Sturm could make him look bad.  The under at +285 is somewhat enticing, as I could see Sylvester getting cut up, and there's bad blood between the two.

Glad to see you back man! Andrade and Bute need to do it again. I've heard some say there's no point since Andrade did as well as he could. I think that's garbage. He's far from a finished project and there's plenty he could do to improve on what he did, provided a neutral site and a competent ref. Obviously Bute's rep will be tarnished until he proves he's actually the better fighter, not just the better boxer.
Not glad to see you (or Graham) on Vic.

I see Mijares putting on a clinic tomorrow, but I guess I'll just toss him into a reduce the juice parlay.
BOL A2C.

Mijares vs. Darchinyan
Darchinyan +260 (SB)
+ 5.2 units

Vic's a beast.

excellent call on Darchinyan

what a performance

Heck of a return A2C.  Awesome call my man. I've been on the shelf or should I say bed for the last three days with a sinus and upper respiratory infection.  Betting or watching boxing was the last thing on my mind, but it read like Vic put a beatdown on Mijares.  What was Vic ITD by the way?  If I would have played it I would have probably had some on that with a hedge on Mijares by decision.  That sucks about the D-Rays, heck of a stab though to peg them before the season.

Been eating crow over on ESB, might as well get it done over here as well. Excellent call my man. Mijares had nothing.

Thanks, FB!  Sorry to hear you were sick this past weekend...Vic ITD opened at around +400, so I felt that sticking with my straight-up play at +260 was the better deal.  It was actually looking like heading towards a decision until Vic caught Mijares with a jab-straight combo with about 10 seconds left in the ninth.  Mijares came into the fight with an arrogant mentality, as he was laughing at Vic until getting knocked down with about 30 seconds left in round 1.  Mijares was the crowd favorite, and that seemed to go to his head a bit.