Weekend Picks (11/21-11/22)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +18.485 units

Steve Molitor vs. Celestino Caballero
Caballero by KO-TKO-DQ (+380) (Bodog)
1 unit

I'm in agreement with Fullbrights on this one, except I'm putting it all on the Caballero KO prop because a decision would likely go to Molitor at his Casino Rama home base.  A lot of experts are predicting Molitor to win this fight, but I'm not sure if he's ready for this type of a step-up in class.  Although Molitor has handled B-level fighters like Fernando Beltran, Jr., and Takalani Ndlovu with ease, Caballero presents the type of problems that Molitor's never dealt with in the ring.  For one, Molitor is going to have to fight very tactically against the freakishly lengthy Caballero.  At times, Molitor tends to become a bit relaxed and reckless in the ring, which could spell doom tonight as Caballero has so much leverage on his shots that a couple of flush hits are enough to KO opponents.  Molitor's definitely capable of boxing a smart fight, and I know he'll be focused for this championship bout.  Still, it's very difficult to go 12 rounds without making a mistake.  Caballero will be looking to pressure Molitor, so Molitor will likely tire in the later rounds after the early adrenaline rush wears off.  I'll admit that Caballero isn't a pretty fighter, as he doesn't use his length to effectively keep his opponents at a distance.  Against Jorge Lacierva, for example, Caballero seemed to have trouble with his opponent bringing the fight right back at him, although Caballero adjusted in the later rounds to secure a decision victory.  I don't see Molitor presenting this problem for Caballero, as Molitor will look to box and move.  Eventually, I expect Caballero's superior power to catch up to the relatively inexperienced Canadian for a stoppage win.

 As a sidenote, Bodog will be presenting live round-by-round wagering (for the first time, I believe).  I've never done this before, so it will be interesting to see the type of props that they present during the fight.  Knowing that Bodog's "boxing people" aren't the most knowledgeable in the business, there could be the opportunity to hit some value-laden lines.

A2C can u please update us after how the "in fight" betting go on.
i am interested how the numbers will go up/down based on rounds

Lucky Luke, your guess is as good as mine.  All their site says is that there will be live round-by-round wagering.   It's exciting that they're trying something new, but we'll have to see how it works. 

Good luck to us A2C, I look forward to heariing post-fight what some in-fight lines were for this one.

YTD 1-0 +1unit

Won on my J GONZALEZ play
and will go with S MOLITOR  -165 to win 1 unit

Cheers bro.  Much easier then expected, but I'm not not complaining one bit.  CC is so awkward and hard to fight; when he is focused on the task at hand he is darn good.  Molitor learned what it is like to swim with a shark tonight.

Caballero by KO-TKO-DQ +3.8 units

Molitor was far worse than I could have possibly imagined, although I had a solid feeling he was way, way over rated.  What a total mismatch.   CC blew right threw him in 4 quick rounds without really getting hit at all and was in the middle of a blitzkrieg of punches before the ref intervened and waved it off.

The live wagering was only offered during the second round, where I hit Caballero at +130 for a unit (not an official play obviously) after he was firmly in the driver's seat.  I guess the "boxing people" at BD assumed this one was going to go much longer than 4 rounds and that money would somehow pour in on the fave.  I wonder if they'll ever offer anything like this again?  Hopefully so.  It certainly added a extra element of excitement to the proccedings. 

Cheers FB.    That was almost too easy.  Yes, Molitor learned what it's like to play with the big boys tonight.  Back to the kiddy pool young man. 

Jesus. . .That's borderline stealing. . .  I knew my Molitor bet was toast after the first. . .  Caballero looked far too comfortable, and Molitor completely drab. 

Yep, that is the type of winner we all love.  I guess the Molitor bandwagon is derailed; I kind of feel bad for him in front on his home fans because he was never in the fight.

Interesting 2nd round line there.  A post round 3 line would have been sweet for you because I thought Molitor was pretty buzzed by that left uppercut in the last 10 seconds in that round.