Weekend Picks (11/23/07 - 11/24/07)

YTD: 45.01 units risked, +14.57 units
Bobby Pacquiao vs. Fernando Trejo
Trejo +200
.75 unit

I'm a little perplexed about why Bobby Pacquiao is so heavily favored against a technically superior boxer in Trejo.  I've come to the conclusion that the only rationale that makes sense is that the public loves the Pacquiao name, even though looks is the only similarity between Manny and Bobby once they enter a boxing ring.  The younger Pac-man has lost 13 times in his career, including seven KO losses.  Although he's been on a bit of a run since avenging a KO loss to Baby Larona in 2003, he's dropped his last two bouts, including a brutal KO loss to Humberto Soto in June.  Meanwhile, Trejo's never been KO'd, and he enters tonight's fight after three consecutive victories.  That includes an impressive unanimous decision over Juan Ramon Cruz in September.  Because Trejo has a sturdy chin, Pacquiao's probably going to have to outpoint him to earn the victory tonight.  But Pacquiao's never shown the patience and boxing ability to beat a technically-sound fighter, as he'd prefer to slug it out.  That won't happen tonight, so I expect Trejo's superior boxing skills to carry him to a fairly easy points win.

Zsolt Erdei vs. Tito Mendoza
Under 11.5 (+170)
1 unit

33-year-old light heavyweight Erdei comes into this bout after an impressive 11th round TKO against George Blades, who had never previously been stopped.  In fact, Erdei has halted four of his last five opponents, with the only full-length fight coming against Thomas Ulrich.  Erdei's an excellent boxer, whose accurate, compact punches can wear down an opponent's will to continue.  I think that's exactly what's going to happen against Tito Mendoza on Saturday.  Mendoza began his professional career as a junior welterweight in 1995 before gradually moving up to super middleweight over the next ten years.  But he had some problems when stepping up in class at 168 lbs, as he lost two consecutive bouts to Syd Vanderpool and Librado Andrade.  Against Vanderpool, Mendoza went down once, and Andrade floored him three times.  (The fact that Vanderpool got KO'd by Jeff Lacy and Alejandro Berrio in his two subsequent fights says something about Mendoza's level of skill).  Mendoza then ballooned to 199 lbs for his next bout against Luis Peneda, and he hit the canvas in that one, as well.  Since then, Mendoza has fought four bouts at light heavyweight, and although he's won them all, the only big name on the list is a faded version of Keith Holmes.  On Saturday, Mendoza steps up in class, and considering that he had trouble taking punches at 168 lbs, he'll have even more problems with the punishment that Erdei's going to exact on him at 175 lbs.  I'll be surprised if Mendoza can make it through the whole fight, and that's why +170 offers significant value.

Looks like we are on the same Trejo side.  Mine was more of a play against Bobby than anything.

Bobby Pacquiao vs. Fernando Trejo
Trejo +200
.75 unit 

Dang, Bobby looked like crap, but Trejo hurt his shoulder in round 4, so Bobby escapes with the TKO.  He was headed for a loss before the injury occurred.

Completely agree, we got .

It looked like a dislocation to me, like I said Pac his crap; he lucked out tonight and cost us some dough.

Zsolt Erdei vs. Tito Mendoza
Under 11.5 (+170)
-1 unit

Terrible weekend of picks.  Erdei had trouble applying consistent pressure against Mendoza due to his size and reach advantages.  Very boring fight where there were rarely any exchanges.

YTD: 46.76 units risked, +12.82 units