Weekend Picks (1/18/08 - 1/19/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: -2.3 units

I didn't have any picks last week, but it was interesting to hear Allan Green (in-studio guest on 1/11 FNF) explain why I lost 1.7 units on the under in his fight despite the fact that he appeared to have the goods to take Williams out.  Green said that he was planning to go 10 rounds the entire time because he needed to get some work in due to the fact that his recent fights had been so short.  Woulda been nice to know this before you fought, Allan!

Ruslan Chagaev vs. Matt Skelton
Over 11.5 (-115)
1.15 units

Chagaev has an impressive 17 KO's in 23 bouts (all wins), but he's not a knockout guy when he steps up in class against big heavyweights.  In his last bout against the Russian Giant (Nikolay Valuev), Chagaev looked like a boxing technician as he countered and moved on his way to a majority decision that should've been unanimous.  Prior to that, Chagaev won a split decision against John Ruiz, who is slightly bigger than Chagaev.  Chagaev also went the distance against 6'4" Vladimir Virchis.  These fights tend to show that Chagaev is content to box his way to a points win when he faces fighters who have a shot at hurting him in exchanges.  I don't expect this pattern to change against the 6'3", 250 lb Skelton.  Skelton is a plodding sort of fighter whose best chance at beating Chagaev is to land a big knockout blow.  Chagaev won't give him that chance, as he'll use his speed, footwork, and counterpunching to box rings around the 40-year-old Skelton.  Also, Skelton has never been hurt in his boxing career, so I doubt that Chagaev will find it in his interest to put himself in harm's way by testing Skelton's proven chin.  In addition, Chagaev hasn't fought in ten months due to illness and other reasons.  As a result, he'll probably find it beneficial to get in a full 12 rounds of ringwork before he faces a bigger test later this year.

 

I agree-  there are better value plays IMO than the under on this one... Skelton is 40 years old and he could gas himself going all out trying to get Chagaev and I recall reading that Skelton  really was hurting in the 12th round in Williams 1.    It's a 50/50 play and priced accoringly- best of luck.    

I agree that Chagaev's in a different class than Skelton.  But Chagaev's going to use his superior skills rather than brute force to dominate Skelton, and that's likely to result in a wide UD.  Of course, a TKO loss is possible, but I think it's significantly less likely than a Chagaev decision win.

Mike Mollo vs. Andrew Golota
Mollo (-200)
2 units

At 25-years-old, Mollo is entering his prime as a heavyweight.  He's a big puncher who likes to start off fast.  Even though he hasn't fought huge names, he did KO the tough Kevin McBride in two rounds in 2006.  That's the same McBride who hurt Golota last October before Golota finished him off in the 6th.  Golota has trouble with guys who swarm him, as evidenced by a first-round KO loss to Lamon Brewster in 2005.  Add to this the fact that Golota is now 40-years-old, and it appears that Golota's going to be in trouble when the younger Mollo attacks him early.  The big knock on Mollo is that he got KO'd by Davarryl Williamson in 2006, but I'd chalk that up to inexperience, as it was Mollo's biggest step up in class.  Also, Williamson has excellent power when he connects (evidenced by him knocking down Wladimir Kiltschko in their fight in 2004).  If Mollo's going to have a career as a heavyweight contender, he must win this fight, and I don't think that he'll disappoint on Saturday night against a washed-up mental midget like Golota.

I like the LOW on your Mollo call A2C. 'dre can crack a big, he's still a big ole Heavy. But he can get hit, or quit, or DQ'ed as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

Hector Velazquez vs. Elio Rojas
Rojas (+130)
1 unit

I'll be back with my analysis on this pick tomorrow afternoon but I wanted to go ahead and post it this evening while you can still get plus-money on the underdog.  By the time the opening bell sounds,  I expect this to be a pick' em fight.

Yep, as posted I am on the same side, but at better odds.  Those odds moved fast today.

Good luck on your plays this week.

A2C you went MIA.  Were you in Vegas with your boy perricm?

I wish I had been in Vegas this weekend. I will actually be over there next month for Pavlik -Taylor II.  Instead I was stuck at home this weekend, dropping 50 clams on that crapfest last night.   Too bad about th Rojas cancellation.  Pretty much expected to see RJ Jr. win a tough decision (well, initially at least) but the Bunema and Golota results were stunning, to say the least. 

2007: +12.45 units
2008: -3.3 units

It was an interesting weekend with Golota showing he's still got it (or just exposing that Mollo doesn't have it), Bunema scoring a crushing and unexpected KO against the apparently weight-drained Made in Hell and the quick and easy 1st round KO from 2-time Golden Glove champion Eric Fields against the completely braindead Davis.  I have to say, Fields really impressed me. FIghting on FNF for the 2nd time in 2 weeks, the potent young cruiserweight had Concrete on the canvas within about 8 seconds and out for good before the 1:00 mark.  Fields is now 11-0 with 9 KO's, 8 of them coming in the 1st round.

Won the Chagaev over, which was an fluid and well-balanced long distance exchange.  I caught the webcast for this one on some Hungarian site.  Good feed, unlike some of the ones too many of the ones I've seen from Germany. 

Lost on Mollo, who looked entirely gassed out after the 3rd rd.  I don't know if it was Golota's size advantage, Mollo's lack of abilities and stature (a small heavyweight at 220 and change) the Foul Pole's vastly superior ring experience but I was shocked, to say the least, to witness Golota scoring a decision W.  His eye was swollen shut so badly the fight could have been stopped had Mollo not resorted to clinching on every other exchange.  Mollo had zero firepower in the late rounds, as couldn't find his footing or, at the low point of the fight, his ring corner.

It's about time to get the ship back on course after going down 3.3 units. 

Forgot to mention, even though most everyone knows, the Rojas fight was cancelled,making that pick a no-action.Too bad.  That was a sweet upset in the making.