Hey fellas. Good to be back. Hope everyone's having a great weekend so far. Interesting evening last night, with Abregu scoring a semi-controversial points win over Estrada, Alvarez blowing right through Pinzon and Mike Jones (Who? Mike Jones. Sorry, couldn't resist the Houston rap reference) getting off to a bit of a shaky start before unloading a huge left to send Perez packing in the 4th I've been checking out the posts this week and it looks like most of the regulars around here are in agreement on the big one tonight. So on to the picks.
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -165 (Bodog) 5 units
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -12.5 points handicap +120 (Bodog) 2.3 units
At this point, hours before the event, there's really not a whole lot of original things I can say, so I'll keep it short. I expect to see Pacquiao fight with a lot of determination during the early rounds. Whether or not he can do enough in the first 2 or 3 rounds to throw Oscar off from his fight plan seems doubtful. His fighting weight against Diaz was 147, so we know that his speed will translate at a slightly higher weight. However, Pac Man won't be able to escape the inevitable tonight, which is that he's in way out of his depth here against a much stronger and taller man. Once Manny begins to feel the power of De La Hoya's jab, things should begin to sour for the feisty Filipino. As much as I'd like to cheer for the underdog here, I just can't imagine a scenario where he would pull off the upset. When all is said and done, I'm expecting either a clear points win or late round stoppage for the Golden Boy.
Martin Rogan vs. Audley Harrison Rogan + 500 (Sportsbook) 1 unit
Ahh, nothing like 2 old heavyweights to get things kicked off this afternoon, right? This is a bit speculative and considering the line closes in a matter of minutes, I'll just say a few things. Harrison has been far too inconsistent to warrant this type of favortism from the books despite the inescapable fact that he's been in the trenches with far superior competition. I'm pulling for the unbeaten (and untested) Rogan to pull off a medium sized upset in the all too unpredictable world of old heavies.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2007: +12.45 units 2008: +22.285 units
Hey fellas. Good to be back. Hope everyone's having a great weekend so far. Interesting evening last night, with Abregu scoring a semi-controversial points win over Estrada, Alvarez blowing right through Pinzon and Mike Jones (Who? Mike Jones. Sorry, couldn't resist the Houston rap reference) getting off to a bit of a shaky start before unloading a huge left to send Perez packing in the 4th I've been checking out the posts this week and it looks like most of the regulars around here are in agreement on the big one tonight. So on to the picks.
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -165 (Bodog) 5 units
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -12.5 points handicap +120 (Bodog) 2.3 units
At this point, hours before the event, there's really not a whole lot of original things I can say, so I'll keep it short. I expect to see Pacquiao fight with a lot of determination during the early rounds. Whether or not he can do enough in the first 2 or 3 rounds to throw Oscar off from his fight plan seems doubtful. His fighting weight against Diaz was 147, so we know that his speed will translate at a slightly higher weight. However, Pac Man won't be able to escape the inevitable tonight, which is that he's in way out of his depth here against a much stronger and taller man. Once Manny begins to feel the power of De La Hoya's jab, things should begin to sour for the feisty Filipino. As much as I'd like to cheer for the underdog here, I just can't imagine a scenario where he would pull off the upset. When all is said and done, I'm expecting either a clear points win or late round stoppage for the Golden Boy.
Martin Rogan vs. Audley Harrison Rogan + 500 (Sportsbook) 1 unit
Ahh, nothing like 2 old heavyweights to get things kicked off this afternoon, right? This is a bit speculative and considering the line closes in a matter of minutes, I'll just say a few things. Harrison has been far too inconsistent to warrant this type of favortism from the books despite the inescapable fact that he's been in the trenches with far superior competition. I'm pulling for the unbeaten (and untested) Rogan to pull off a medium sized upset in the all too unpredictable world of old heavies.
Hey fellas. Good to be back. Hope everyone's having a great weekend so far. Interesting evening last night, with Abregu scoring a semi-controversial points win over Estrada, Alvarez blowing right through Pinzon and Mike Jones (Who? Mike Jones. Sorry, couldn't resist the Houston rap reference) getting off to a bit of a shaky start before unloading a huge left to send Perez packing in the 4th I've been checking out the posts this week and it looks like most of the regulars around here are in agreement on the big one tonight. So on to the picks.
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -165 (Bodog) 5 units
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -12.5 points handicap +120 (Bodog) 2.3 units
At this point, hours before the event, there's really not a whole lot of original things I can say, so I'll keep it short. I expect to see Pacquiao fight with a lot of determination during the early rounds. Whether or not he can do enough in the first 2 or 3 rounds to throw Oscar off from his fight plan seems doubtful. His fighting weight against Diaz was 147, so we know that his speed will translate at a slightly higher weight. However, Pac Man won't be able to escape the inevitable tonight, which is that he's in way out of his depth here against a much stronger and taller man. Once Manny begins to feel the power of De La Hoya's jab, things should begin to sour for the feisty Filipino. As much as I'd like to cheer for the underdog here, I just can't imagine a scenario where he would pull off the upset. When all is said and done, I'm expecting either a clear points win or late round stoppage for the Golden Boy.
Martin Rogan vs. Audley Harrison Rogan + 500 (Sportsbook) 1 unit
Ahh, nothing like 2 old heavyweights to get things kicked off this afternoon, right? This is a bit speculative and considering the line closes in a matter of minutes, I'll just say a few things. Harrison has been far too inconsistent to warrant this type of favortism from the books despite the inescapable fact that he's been in the trenches with far superior competition. I'm pulling for the unbeaten (and untested) Rogan to pull off a medium sized upset in the all too unpredictable world of old heavies.
Nice to see you on Rogan too....
I think Abregu lost.....a 10-8 round easily in the 10th, but to give Estrada at least a draw in my mind. I was on Abregu everywhere too.
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Quote Originally Posted by A2C:
2007: +12.45 units 2008: +22.285 units
Hey fellas. Good to be back. Hope everyone's having a great weekend so far. Interesting evening last night, with Abregu scoring a semi-controversial points win over Estrada, Alvarez blowing right through Pinzon and Mike Jones (Who? Mike Jones. Sorry, couldn't resist the Houston rap reference) getting off to a bit of a shaky start before unloading a huge left to send Perez packing in the 4th I've been checking out the posts this week and it looks like most of the regulars around here are in agreement on the big one tonight. So on to the picks.
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -165 (Bodog) 5 units
Oscar De La Hoya vs. Manny Pacquiao De La Hoya -12.5 points handicap +120 (Bodog) 2.3 units
At this point, hours before the event, there's really not a whole lot of original things I can say, so I'll keep it short. I expect to see Pacquiao fight with a lot of determination during the early rounds. Whether or not he can do enough in the first 2 or 3 rounds to throw Oscar off from his fight plan seems doubtful. His fighting weight against Diaz was 147, so we know that his speed will translate at a slightly higher weight. However, Pac Man won't be able to escape the inevitable tonight, which is that he's in way out of his depth here against a much stronger and taller man. Once Manny begins to feel the power of De La Hoya's jab, things should begin to sour for the feisty Filipino. As much as I'd like to cheer for the underdog here, I just can't imagine a scenario where he would pull off the upset. When all is said and done, I'm expecting either a clear points win or late round stoppage for the Golden Boy.
Martin Rogan vs. Audley Harrison Rogan + 500 (Sportsbook) 1 unit
Ahh, nothing like 2 old heavyweights to get things kicked off this afternoon, right? This is a bit speculative and considering the line closes in a matter of minutes, I'll just say a few things. Harrison has been far too inconsistent to warrant this type of favortism from the books despite the inescapable fact that he's been in the trenches with far superior competition. I'm pulling for the unbeaten (and untested) Rogan to pull off a medium sized upset in the all too unpredictable world of old heavies.
Nice to see you on Rogan too....
I think Abregu lost.....a 10-8 round easily in the 10th, but to give Estrada at least a draw in my mind. I was on Abregu everywhere too.
I was leaning towards the under in that one but ended up sitting it out. A good friend of mine and I were talking about this match up on Thursday and he felt very strongly that Abgregu's people wouldn't have made this fight if they didn't feel absolutely confident in his chances. But like Farhood commented last night in reference to observations from his Argentinian source, he seems a chinny and once he steps up another level, could find himself horribly exposed.
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I was leaning towards the under in that one but ended up sitting it out. A good friend of mine and I were talking about this match up on Thursday and he felt very strongly that Abgregu's people wouldn't have made this fight if they didn't feel absolutely confident in his chances. But like Farhood commented last night in reference to observations from his Argentinian source, he seems a chinny and once he steps up another level, could find himself horribly exposed.
Hi walktheline. I'm confident that we're on the right side of the fence here and that if there's a public play, it's Manny. When the line first dropped, there was a strong showing of money for Oscar. As we've seen all too many times, early money in boxing is usualyl sharp money. Over the last week, the line's been wavering with DLH becoming more and more affordable. That is, until today where I'm seeing him range from -165 at Sportsbook to -210 at 5 Dimes. By fight time, I'd be surprised if he wasn't around -200 or higher at all the books.
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Hi walktheline. I'm confident that we're on the right side of the fence here and that if there's a public play, it's Manny. When the line first dropped, there was a strong showing of money for Oscar. As we've seen all too many times, early money in boxing is usualyl sharp money. Over the last week, the line's been wavering with DLH becoming more and more affordable. That is, until today where I'm seeing him range from -165 at Sportsbook to -210 at 5 Dimes. By fight time, I'd be surprised if he wasn't around -200 or higher at all the books.
At first I also thought that this was a mis-match when the De la hoya-Pacman fight was made. How could a smaller man step up to challenge a world class boxer used to fighting at 154? But the more I thought about it, the less of an advantage the weight came to be a deciding factor in the way I analyze the bout. At this stage in his career Oscar has lost a lot of the speed that he possessed in his hay-day. Pacman should definitely have the hand & leg speed edge. Also Oscar ability to fight more then a minute & a half of every round has declined drastically in the last few years. We know that Manny can fight all night if he's not pressured. Edge Pacman. At this weight I would have to admit that Manny's power should be somewhat diminished, but not enough so as to not deter Oscar from relaxing & setting up his power shots. The key to the fight (for me) will be who controls the tempo of the bout. If Pacman can keep Oscar working for 3 minutes every round I see STAMINA becoming the most important ingredient in the outcome. I expect Oscar to do very well in the early rounds & might even hurt Manny enough to win the fight. But if this goes the distance I really believe Manny will wear a dehydrated De La Hoya down & pull out a close decision. I've been wrong before but I took Pacman + 2-1 weeks ago & will stick to my guns.
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At first I also thought that this was a mis-match when the De la hoya-Pacman fight was made. How could a smaller man step up to challenge a world class boxer used to fighting at 154? But the more I thought about it, the less of an advantage the weight came to be a deciding factor in the way I analyze the bout. At this stage in his career Oscar has lost a lot of the speed that he possessed in his hay-day. Pacman should definitely have the hand & leg speed edge. Also Oscar ability to fight more then a minute & a half of every round has declined drastically in the last few years. We know that Manny can fight all night if he's not pressured. Edge Pacman. At this weight I would have to admit that Manny's power should be somewhat diminished, but not enough so as to not deter Oscar from relaxing & setting up his power shots. The key to the fight (for me) will be who controls the tempo of the bout. If Pacman can keep Oscar working for 3 minutes every round I see STAMINA becoming the most important ingredient in the outcome. I expect Oscar to do very well in the early rounds & might even hurt Manny enough to win the fight. But if this goes the distance I really believe Manny will wear a dehydrated De La Hoya down & pull out a close decision. I've been wrong before but I took Pacman + 2-1 weeks ago & will stick to my guns.
I should mention that I have a lean on the Ortiz under 9.5 prop, but at the current price (-220 to -240), can't possibly recommend it in good conscience (even if Ortiz takes him out in the 1st). For those that hit this early, congrats. It opened at -135.
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I should mention that I have a lean on the Ortiz under 9.5 prop, but at the current price (-220 to -240), can't possibly recommend it in good conscience (even if Ortiz takes him out in the 1st). For those that hit this early, congrats. It opened at -135.
Good observations Redlad. Agree with you that whoever controls the tempo will have the upper hand. However, I feel like once Oscar begins to connect with his left hooks and is sitting behind his jab, it will be too much for the smaller man to take - resulting in both physical and psychological damage. I can't see Manny having any answer for DLH's power, aside from his speed, grit and resolve, which I feel can only take him so far. Regardless, I wish you luck on your play and hope that we're in for good one this evening.
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Good observations Redlad. Agree with you that whoever controls the tempo will have the upper hand. However, I feel like once Oscar begins to connect with his left hooks and is sitting behind his jab, it will be too much for the smaller man to take - resulting in both physical and psychological damage. I can't see Manny having any answer for DLH's power, aside from his speed, grit and resolve, which I feel can only take him so far. Regardless, I wish you luck on your play and hope that we're in for good one this evening.
At first I also thought that this was a mis-match when the De la hoya-Pacman fight was made. How could a smaller man step up to challenge a world class boxer used to fighting at 154? But the more I thought about it, the less of an advantage the weight came to be a deciding factor in the way I analyze the bout. At this stage in his career Oscar has lost a lot of the speed that he possessed in his hay-day. Pacman should definitely have the hand & leg speed edge. Also Oscar ability to fight more then a minute & a half of every round has declined drastically in the last few years. We know that Manny can fight all night if he's not pressured. Edge Pacman. At this weight I would have to admit that Manny's power should be somewhat diminished, but not enough so as to not deter Oscar from relaxing & setting up his power shots. The key to the fight (for me) will be who controls the tempo of the bout. If Pacman can keep Oscar working for 3 minutes every round I see STAMINA becoming the most important ingredient in the outcome. I expect Oscar to do very well in the early rounds & might even hurt Manny enough to win the fight. But if this goes the distance I really believe Manny will wear a dehydrated De La Hoya down & pull out a close decision. I've been wrong before but I took Pacman + 2-1 weeks ago & will stick to my guns.
Excellent post. Manny might make the final bell after fighting a good fight. I think it would take a blowout for him to win on the cards. (Golden Boy Promotions gift points) Remember that one judge actually thought he beat Mayweather. He didn't have to go the sauna route for this fight. He was at 147 on Thanksgiving. He is at 145 now. He should walk in at about 152, 153 tonight. I don't that weight cutting fatigue is an issue. Good luck tonight.
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Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:
At first I also thought that this was a mis-match when the De la hoya-Pacman fight was made. How could a smaller man step up to challenge a world class boxer used to fighting at 154? But the more I thought about it, the less of an advantage the weight came to be a deciding factor in the way I analyze the bout. At this stage in his career Oscar has lost a lot of the speed that he possessed in his hay-day. Pacman should definitely have the hand & leg speed edge. Also Oscar ability to fight more then a minute & a half of every round has declined drastically in the last few years. We know that Manny can fight all night if he's not pressured. Edge Pacman. At this weight I would have to admit that Manny's power should be somewhat diminished, but not enough so as to not deter Oscar from relaxing & setting up his power shots. The key to the fight (for me) will be who controls the tempo of the bout. If Pacman can keep Oscar working for 3 minutes every round I see STAMINA becoming the most important ingredient in the outcome. I expect Oscar to do very well in the early rounds & might even hurt Manny enough to win the fight. But if this goes the distance I really believe Manny will wear a dehydrated De La Hoya down & pull out a close decision. I've been wrong before but I took Pacman + 2-1 weeks ago & will stick to my guns.
Excellent post. Manny might make the final bell after fighting a good fight. I think it would take a blowout for him to win on the cards. (Golden Boy Promotions gift points) Remember that one judge actually thought he beat Mayweather. He didn't have to go the sauna route for this fight. He was at 147 on Thanksgiving. He is at 145 now. He should walk in at about 152, 153 tonight. I don't that weight cutting fatigue is an issue. Good luck tonight.
Ortiz could very well be the hottest welter prospect on the planet right now. Incredible 2nd round KO from Vicious Victor. Talk about a guy to keep an eye one. The line movement on the under 9.5 rounds prop was stunning, having opened at -135 and closing at -220 / -240.
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Ortiz could very well be the hottest welter prospect on the planet right now. Incredible 2nd round KO from Vicious Victor. Talk about a guy to keep an eye one. The line movement on the under 9.5 rounds prop was stunning, having opened at -135 and closing at -220 / -240.
I wondered where you were all week with tonight's big card man. Cheers on the Rogan cash, surely even Audley himself will realize that the moniker fits and hang the gloves up now. A lot of us went to the crapper on DLH, at least the Rogan winner washed a good bit of it out for you.
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I wondered where you were all week with tonight's big card man. Cheers on the Rogan cash, surely even Audley himself will realize that the moniker fits and hang the gloves up now. A lot of us went to the crapper on DLH, at least the Rogan winner washed a good bit of it out for you.
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