Weekend Picks (4/16 - 4/19)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: -5.86 units

Peter Quillin vs. Antwun Echols
Under 9.5 (+135)
1 unit

Arghh!  I can't believe I didn't post when it was at +160.  Regardless, I have to run, so I'll be back with a short writeup later.

You think rickety Ech' is gonna be stopped A2C?

GLA!
bigeiii

Very nice number A2C, by the time I saw it copied at my books it was a far cry from where Joey opened it.  I even saw it at -190 at one point at 5dimes.  Good luck, Echols's legs sure didn't look good last time out even though he survived with a draw.  Isn't is crazy that 3 out of Antwun's last 4 fights have been draws, that's a rare oddity.

Peter Quillin vs. Antwun Echols
Under 9.5 (+135)
1 unit

I can see this fight easily going one of 2 ways: Quillin's possible lack of defense (I say this since I don't believe he's ever really been tested) opening up holes for Echols to exploit, leading to a ITD win for the veteran or Echols' being so past his prime at this stage of his career that the young and powerful Kid Chocolate blows him out and adds to his impressive KO total.  Both almost always win by KO - but as Fullbrights points out, Echols has somehow managed a draw in 3 of his last 4 bouts. A side play for me is out of the question here with Quillin sitting at -600 at most books since, like I already mentioned, he's never really been paired with a dangerous opponent and there's absolutely no value on that kind of number.  It's extremely doubtful that Echols has much of anything left in the tank this late in his career, but that said, he's fought at such a higher level for so long, that you never know what could happen when he's paired with an untested prospect.  A lot of money has shown for the under proposition today and I'm kicking myself for not dropping several units on it when I saw it at +165 this morning on Sportsbook.  There's still enough value at -105  to justify a modest play (the current number at Sportsbook), although 5 Dimes currently has it at -170. 

ESPN really screwed up. Never heard anything about WNF at all. Just the Yanks & Boston.

Peter Quillin vs. Antwun Echols
Under 9.5 (+135)
-1 unit 

Ah, that guy who sets the lines knew what he was doing.  Although Echols stumbles around the ring and often appears out on his feet, he just won't go down.  At the same time, Quillin wasn't all that impressive.  He had lots of periods of inactivity, and Echols often caught him with some flush shots...Still, it was a close one, as the ref nearly stopped the fight in the 9th.

I'll look at the card some more to see if we can make some money back on other fights this weekend.

Where did you see/ hear about the fight? I did read on fightnews that it probably should have been stopped.

It came on around 11:15 pm, after a very extended version of Baseball Tonight (on a side note, everyone needs to e-mail ESPN to complain about the horrible decision to go to an extended baseball tonight after we sat through 4 hours of that terrible Red Sox - Yankees game).  I set my DVR to record for about 3.5 hours after I went to bed, and I woke up early this morning to watch it with breakfast.

Joe Calzaghe vs. Bernard Hopkins
Calzaghe by 12 Round Decision (-108)
5.4 units

After careful consideration of both sides, I've come to the conclusion that Calzaghe's hand speed, punch output, and movement will be enough to score a decision victory.  Hopkins will definitely have his moments, as he's a smart counterpuncher who can pick his spots.  But that's the key: Hopkins cherry-picks too much and doesn't fight complete rounds.  This tactic worked against stylists (Jermain Taylor and Antonio Tarver), and a defensive specialist (Winky Wright), but Calzaghe's a completely different animal.  Hopkins is going to have to consistently land power punches in order to counteract Calzaghe's consistent scoring, and I don't see him having an easy time landing such blows because Calzaghe's adept at attacking from all sorts of angles before moving out of the way.  Yes, Hopkins is certainly a ring general -- but so is Calzaghe, albeit in a different sort of manner.  In the close rounds, Calzaghe will be landing more punches, and judges usually score such rounds for the fighter who's doing more work.  Although Hopkins is physically younger than his 43-years-of-age suggests, he doesn't fight like a young man.  Instead, he's cerebral and tactical as he lets the fight come to him.  This style would work against a straight-ahead pressure fighter (think: Tarver vs. Woods).  But consistently landing counter blows on Calzaghe will be like trying to catch a rabbit in the ring.  Hopkins will certainly land some telling shots, possibly even sending Calzaghe to the canvas at one point.  But Calzaghe will carry at least 8 of the rounds, and that'll be enough to get the decision nod.

I like that number you got. Bernard would have to land some huge shots across several rounds to carry this fight.

Joe Calzaghe vs. Bernard Hopkins
Calzaghe by 12 Round Decision (-108)
+ 5 units 

Just one thing to say:

There's only oooonnnneeee Joe Calzaghe!!!!!

Nice cash A2C, you even called the hopkins knockdown.

Very nice A2C.  That was definitely the way to play Calzaghe.  Big night for you.