Weekend Picks (5/2/08 - 5/3/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: -1.46 units

Anthony Hanshaw vs. Andre Dirrell
Hanshaw (+110)
2 units

Hanshaw's an experienced pressure fighter who does enough good work to take decisions when his fights go to the cards. These attributes give him an advantage against Dirrell, who has never fought anyone of Hanshaw's caliber.  Sure, Curtis Stevens throws a powerful punch, but he didn't have enough skill to land it against Dirrell, who took advantage of his 6-inch height advantage to hit Stevens from the outside and then run around the ring to avoid any exchanges.  That tactic won't work against Hanshaw, who stands 6'0" and knows how to use the ring to land punches on an unwilling opponent.  Hanshaw was impressive in a decision loss to an aging Roy Jones, and even though that definitely wasn't Roy in his prime, he was a tougher opponent than Dirrell.  Also, let's keep in mind that if Dirrell uses the same running style that he did against Stevens, he's not going to impress many people, and Hanshaw would likely get credit for pressing the action in a somewhat even fight.  On the other hand, if Dirrell tries to please the viewing public by actually fighting, he's not experienced enough to beat Hanshaw on the inside, so a KO would be a possibility in such a case. I'm not gonna hold my breath on that one, though, so I'm just taking Hanshaw to win straight up.

This is a great match-up. I'm not really interested in either side. Dirrell is clearly the better prospect in my mind, but supposedly Gary Shaw has a small ring set up, and Hanshaw is the house fighter who will get the close rounds. I just want to watch this one, but I'd be shocked if Hanshaw stopped him in 10 rounds. I pretty much have zero regard for his punching power. Roy Jones picked Hanshaw as an opponent between big fights with Prince Badi and Tito? Their camp, which has done a great job matchmaking in this new phase of Roy's career, apparently didn't have too much fear of Hanshaw.

I'll be the fourth due for some crow if Hanshaw wins. Roy has eons more experience and power than Dirrell, but let's be honest, he doesn't have Dirrell's legs anymore either. Hanshaw looked "impressive" in spots because when Roy puts up his earmuffs, it takes him longer to find moments to counter. I just want to see this fight go the distance, but I see Dirrell winning.

Anthony Hanshaw vs. Andre Dirrell
Hanshaw (+110)
2 units 

Oh, wow.  Props to everyone who went against me.  That was quite a display by Dirrell after a shaky first round.  He's competely turned himself around.

Tough beat. That kid could be the future of the division. I don't think any of us really thought Hanshaw would be getting stopped, although some of the signs were probably there from the RJJ knockdown. That was probably the last chance we'll have to back Dirrell at even money until he fights for a title.

Well, Matrix blew up my over parlay for the weekend, so I'm no bragging. I'd say outclassed is a conservative word for what happened tonight. That was a highly impressive performance.

Based on what I saw tonight, there might be some truth in those Dawson sparring tales afterall.

Oscar De La Hoya vs. Steve Forbes
De La Hoya Inside the Distance (+169)
3.5 units

There no question of who's winning tonight, it's only a matter of how the win goes down.  After much deliberation, I've come to the conclusion that the best play on the Golden Boy is the ITD prop.  There's better value on the under 9.5 round prop for sure but this is a safer play in case the stoppage happens late in the 10th or anytime after.  Forbes might be a game opponent for some of the early rounds, but as the rounds go on, there will be moments where he finds himself outsized, overpowered and ultimately overwhelmed.  I think it's possible that the accumulation of his jabs will wear down Forbes so badly that he either quits or is forced to quit by either referee or corner intervention sometime in the latter rounds.  It's in DLH's best interest to get some quality rounds in before the big rematch with Mayweather later this year but it's also in his interest to build up a little more hype for it as well.  What better way to do that than by KO'ing his hand picked opponent, leading to a rematch in which both guys are coming off KO wins? 

Like the pick A2C, your just not getting the best value for your outlook on the fight. If you feel he is going to KO Forbes - do you REALLY see it happening that late? I don't. I got a prop last night on the fight won't go 1:30 into the 7th for +750. You mentioned the 9.5 prop - you should take it. Having a bit of balls here has to much value to worry about playing it safe and covering two rounds that aren't likely to have much to do with the outcome. Is that small timeframe worth losing 2-4 units of profit? No.

I agree that he will be outsized, overpowered, and overwhelmed. However, it won't be because of DLH's jab. Forbes will be best prepared to deal with that aspect of DLH than any other. My thoughts are that it will be from left hooks to the body, left hooks to the head, DLH's money punch. I will give you props if it turn out to be DLH working on the jab that he lost against Floyd. I just don't think that punch is going to matter much tonight. The power shots and size of DLH are what makes this fight tonight.

I'm with you on DLH ITD +220, and fight won't go 1:30 into 7th. Good luck tonight.